In terms of statistical change, there was a lot about the 2025 NFL season that could be considered remarkable. Seven of the eight divisions were topped by teams that did not win their respective divisions in 2024. The Eagles were the only team to retain a division title. There were also two worst-to-first teams – the Bears and Patriots – who won their divisions after finishing last the previous season. On average, having two teams perform the feat happens about once a decade in the NFL.
We also had the “Long-Shot Super Bowl”, as some media outlets tagged it. The game between the Seahawks (+6000 at the start of the season) and Patriots (+8000) represented the highest preseason odds of two teams in Super Bowl history. There’s perhaps some debate as to whether the Rams and Titans had higher combined odds for Super Bowl XXXIV. Regardless, you get the picture: It was a season of unpredictability.
Super Bowl betting odds are wide open
From a sports betting perspective, this leaves things in an interesting position for next season. Super Bowl LXI odds are already live, and you kind of get the sense that sportsbooks are not quite sure what to do with them. Normally, this early in the offseason, sportsbooks are a little tentative regardless. And it’s often the case that the Super Bowl teams lead the market for the next season, but right now it’s all a bit smashed together.
Around 14 teams, including the Patriots and Seahawks, are priced between +900 and +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI (odds from DraftKings and correct at the time of writing). That’s tight. To put it in perspective: Last season, the Eagles, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs were all around +700, with much larger gaps to the chasing pack.
The reason for this is fairly simple: Sportsbooks aren’t quite sure whether teams that were predicted to struggle or be average in 2025 but ended up having success will continue to thrive (Bears, Jags, Pats, etc.), nor whether the teams that were predicted to thrive in 2025 but ended up struggling (Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, etc.,) will bounce back.
The Bears had a memorable season
To give a couple of examples, consider the Bears. Chicago topped the NFC North with room to spare and had a memorable run to the Divisional Round after an incredible comeback win over the Packers in the Wild Card Round. Sportsbooks don’t seem to be sure whether this was a fluke or not, and they have tentatively placed both the Lions and Packers well ahead of them in the Super Bowl odds. That’s before we see any trades or free agency movement.
The Chiefs offer a similar head-scratcher. How do you begin to model where they will be in the 2026 season? Certain factors will come into play during the offseason, particularly the rehab progress of Patrick Mahomes, but it would be just as unsurprising to see the Chiefs return to top form as it would to see them struggle again. You might make a similar argument about the Ravens.
For fans, this should at least feel a little exciting across the 7-8 months until the start of the 2026 season. Super Bowl LX felt wide open from about December onwards, and there should be at least fanbases of maybe ten to a dozen teams feeling they have a real chance for Super Bowl LXI. The odds will take shape as moves are made across the coming months, but right now, it feels like the odds-setters are as clueless as the rest of us.
