2024 NFL Season Preview: New England Patriots

New England Patriots (Last Year: 4-13)

Season Summary:
The Bill Belichick era is finally over. Belichick’s final season featured a disastrous 4-13 record, and now New England must completely rebuild with a new quarterback it’ll likely select at No. 3 overall.

2024 NFL Season Preview:

Veteran Additions:
QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins.
Early Draft Picks:
QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker. Patriots Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills.

2024 New England Patriots Offense:
It’s almost hard to believe that he’s gone after all these years. Mac Jones is no longer on the team, as he departed and joined the Jaguars. Desperate for a quarterback, the Patriots used the No. 3 overall pick on Drake Maye.

Maye resembles Josh Allen – a raw, but incredibly impressive talent who could blossom into one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL with the right coaching and support system. Maye could get there by 2026 or perhaps even 2025, but it’ll be a rocky ride this season. In fact, there’s a chance Maye begins the year as a reserve with top backup Jacoby Brissett earning some early starts. This is exactly what happened with Allen, as Nathan Peterman was given the nod in the 2018 opener.

Whether it’s Maye or Brissett, New England’s quarterback is going to find the cupboard rather bare at receiver. Kendrick Bourne was the top player at the position last year until he tore his ACL. He’s not expected to be 100 percent this year. Following Bourne’s injury, DeMario Douglas emerged as a quality weapon out of the slot. He doesn’t profile as a No. 1 receiver, however. Perhaps Ja’Lynn Polk will emerge in that role. Polk was chosen in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, so he’s the favorite to start across from Bourne. There’s also fourth-round rookie Javon Baker, who called himself the best receiver in the entire 2024 NFL Draft class. It’s safe to say that Maye or Brissett will lean heavily on Hunter Henry, who was a touchdown machine in the second half of 2023.

New England’s quarterback will want to lean on the rushing attack as well. Rhamondre Stevenson will return as the starter following an injury-plagued 2023. His backup, Ezekiel Elliott, is gone. The Patriots signed Antonio Gibson as the new No. 2 runner, although Gibson will operate more as a receiver out of the backfield.

All of this may not sound terrible, but the offensive line hasn’t been addressed yet. New England’s starting offensive tackles are projected to be Chuks Okorafor and Michael Onwenu, which seems horrible. Onwenu is a decent blocker, but Okorafor serving as the blind-side protector for Maye is a nightmare. Okorafor was benched in Pittsburgh last year, so there’s a decent chance that third-round rookie Caedan Wallace wins the job.

It doesn’t get much better in the interior, as former first-round guard Cole Strange will miss the start of the season with a knee injury. Strange had a mediocre 2023, but was expected to improve his play. The other starting interior blockers are David Andrews and Sidy Sow. The former remains a quality center even though he’s now 32. Sow, on the other hand, projects to be a liability once again. Fourth-round rookie Layden Robinson may also see playing time.

2024 New England Patriots Defense:
Mac Jones isn’t the only long-time Patriot who will no longer be with the team. Bill Belichick should probably be mentioned as a key departure. The best coach in the NFL is no longer with the team, meaning New England’s defense won’t be as potent. Jerod Mayo was Belichick’s understudy, and while it’s possible that he could be a great coach one day, it doesn’t seem feasible for Mayo to run things nearly as smoothly as Belichick in his first year on the job.

On the plus side, Mayo will be getting a key player back from injury. Christian Gonzalez, chosen in the opening round of the 2023 NFL Draft, enjoyed a terrific start to his rookie campaign, but was lost for the year after just four games. Gonzalez was sorely missed, as New England’s pass defense took a hit with him out of the lineup. He’ll return to start across from Jonathan Jones, who is coming off a strong season. Together, Gonzalez and Jones should form an excellent duo, though slot corner Marcus Jones isn’t nearly as talented.

With Gonzalez sidelined, Jabrill Peppers became the best player in New England’s secondary last season. Peppers had been a disappointment as a former first-round pick prior to 2023, but Belichick transformed him into a Pro Bowl-caliber defender. It’s fair to wonder if Peppers and other defensive backs will suffer a decline with Belichick gone. Peppers will be back to start next to Kyle Dugger, a quality safety.

Mayo is a former linebacker, so perhaps he’ll have the best success maintaining the linebackers’ high level of play. Jahlani Tavai was another defender who boosted his performance in 2023. He was incredible, but there might be a decline with Belichick gone. He’ll continue to start next to Ja’Whaun Bentley, who is coming off a mediocre season.

The pass rush probably has the lowest chance of regressing as a result of the coaching change. It’s actually likely to improve because Matthew Judon played in just four games last year. Judon is a devastating pass rusher – he had four sacks in those four contests – so like Gonzalez, he was sorely missed in the final 13 games. He’ll be back as the lone potent edge rusher on the team. The Patriots also have the likes of Keion White and Deatrich Wise, but neither is a very impactful player. Wise had decent moments in the past, but he declined last year and is now 30.

With Judon hurt last year, New England’s top pass rusher was Christian Barmore, who was rewarded with a $92 million contract this offseason. Barmore is one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL, so he deserved that sort of payment, especially when considering that the Patriots have nothing else at the position. The other starter is Davon Godchaux, who was a liability last year.

2024 New England Patriots Schedule and Intangibles:
Since 2003, the Patriots are 143-38 at home. However, the magic is gone now that Tom Brady is no longer on the roster. New England was 1-7 as a host last year.

The Patriots had kicking woes last year. They tried rookie Chad Ryland, who struggled. He was 16-of-25, prompting the Patriots to sign Joey Slye as competition.

Jake Bailey was a terrible punter two years ago, so the Patriots used a sixth-round selection on Bryce Baringer. While Baringer didn’t do well in net punting, he was incredible at pinning the opposition inside the 20.

The Patriots could be in a hole to begin the season, as seven of their first eight opponents are the Bengals, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars, and Jets again.

2024 New England Patriots Rookies:
Go here for the Patriots Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.

2024 New England Patriots Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):

Quarterbacks	Offensive Line	Secondary
Running Backs	Defensive Line	Special Teams
Receivers	Linebackers	Coaching

2024 New England Patriots Analysis: Bill Belichick is gone, so the Patriots won’t be able to out-coach most teams any longer. Their defense could also take a hit because of Belichick’s departure. Given that the offense may still be dreadful as a result of poor receiver and offensive line performance, New England is in play for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Projection: 3-14 (4th in AFC East)

2023 Projection: 5-12. 2023 Actual Result: 4-13.
2022 Projection: 10-7. 2022 Actual Result: 8-9.
2021 Projection: 8-9. 2021 Actual Result: 10-7.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 7-9.
2019 Projection: 11-5. 2019 Actual Result: 12-4.
2018 Projection: 14-2. 2018 Actual Result: 11-5.
2017 Projection: 14-2. 2017 Actual Result: 13-3.
2016 Projection: 12-4. 2016 Actual Result: 14-2.

NFL Draft Team Grade:

B+ Grade

Goals Entering the 2024 NFL Draft: The Patriots won’t have their pick of the quarterback litter like the Redskins did beyond Caleb Williams. The Patriots may get their third preference, but that’s still an upgrade over what they’ve had in recent years at the position. New England has very little else on offense, so it needs to surround this new quarterback with as much talent as possible.

2024 NFL Draft Accomplishments: There was pre-draft speculation that the Patriots could trade down with the Giants or Vikings, but they decided to remain in place. This was the correct decision, as they were able to land their new franchise quarterback, Drake Maye.

With an empty cupboard on offense, the Patriots had to spend tons of selections to help Maye. That’s exactly what they did, with their next four picks being used on that side of the ball. In fact, only one selection in the entire Patriots’ draft class was spent on defense, which was a steal in Marcellas Dial as a sixth-round choice.

I’m not a huge fan of all the offensive players the Patriots acquired, as tackle Caedan Wallace was a bit of a reach, while Joe Milton was a waste. However, I liked the approach, and I was a fan of Ja’Lynn Polk at No. 37, especially after New England traded down.

I wouldn’t call this a great draft class for the Patriots, but it was very good. It’s certainly a step in the right direction in New England’s post-Brady and Belichick rebuilding process.

NFL Draft Individual Grades:

3. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina – A- Grade

There was great speculation that the Patriots would trade out of this pick, but they were never going to accept any offers that wouldn’t blow them away. The reason is simple – the Patriots were desperate for a franchise quarterback and happened to be in position to draft one. Drake Maye is riskier than the two quarterbacks chosen before him, but he has immense upside. The Patriots made a wise decision to draft him over any of the other options.

37. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington – A Grade

I love when teams can take a prospect at a spot, but trade down and still get that player. This is what the Patriots did, so they should be graded highly for it. Ja’Lynn Polk makes sense here as a second-round prospect, and he fills a need. New England did well to move up into Day 2 and still acquire him.

68. Caedan Wallace, OT, Penn State – C- Grade

This reminds me of the Bill Belichick days when Belichick would just throw his arms up in the air and draft players way ahead of schedule because his big board was blown up. We had Caeden Wallace firmly as a third-day player, so this is a reach for sure. I like adding a lineman for Drake Maye, but Wallace could have been chosen later.

103. Layden Robinson, G, Texas A&M – A Grade

Teams are off to a great start to begin Day 3. The Patriots need to protect Drake Maye because their offensive line has been so dreadful lately. I’ve had Layden Robinson slotted on Day 2 of my mock draft, so I love this value.

110. Javon Baker, WR, Central Florida – B Grade

I can’t hate on any pick that gives Drake Maye a weapon. Javon Baker is probably best served as a fifth-rounder, but I can buy him in the fourth. New England has nothing at receiver, so adding another one without reaching is a solid move.

180. Marcellas Dial, CB, South Carolina – A+ Grade

The Patriots are taking a break from addressing the offense to go to defense. They’re getting a stellar value, so it’s easy to understand way. Marcellas Dial could have gone in the third round with no complaints, so this is a steal.

193. Joe Milton, QB, Tennessee – C- Grade

This is a stupid pick. Joe Milton has a massive arm, but his decision-making in the pocket is horrendous. He’s a long-term project, but the Patriots will be developing Drake Maye. New England should have given Maye more to work with instead of competition.

231. Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State – A+ Grade

I thought Jaheim Bell would go two or even three rounds earlier than this, so I love the value. I also like the need fit, as Hunter Henry is now in his 30s and will need to be replaced soon.

Season Summary:
The Bill Belichick era is finally over. Belichick’s final season featured a disastrous 4-13 record, and now New England must completely rebuild with a new quarterback it’ll likely select at No. 3 overall.

Offseason Moves:

Jaguars acquire QB Mac Jones from Patriots for 2024 6th-round pick

Team Needs:

Quarterback: Mac Jones is done, so the Patriots will use the No. 3 pick on a new franchise quarterback.
Two Wide Receivers: Two new wide receivers must be added to complement the new franchise quarterback. Demario Douglas performed well last year, but two outside receivers are needed. Signed K.J. Osborn
Four Offensive Linemen: That would be two tackles and two guards. The Patriots had good tackle play last year when Trenton Brown was healthy, but Brown and Mike Onwenu are entering free agency. The guards struggled and must be upgraded, though Cole Strange is likely to get one more chance.
Safety: Kyle Dugger is New England’s top impending free agent. Re-signed Kyle Dugger
Tight End: Hunter Henry is hitting free agency, so he must be re-signed or replaced. Re-signed Hunter Henry
Running Back: Depth is needed behind Rhamondre Stevenson with Ezekiel Elliott heading for free agency. Signed Antonio Gibson
Kicker: Chad Ryland was a disaster as a replacement for Nick Folk.

Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

2024 NFL Free Agent Signings:

New England Patriots Free Agents:

Salary Cap: TBA.

NFL Free Agent Tracker:
QB | RB | FB | WR | TE | OT | G | C | DE | DT | OLB | ILB | CB | S | K/P | FA Grades | FA Rumors

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