Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Year: 9-8)
2023 NFL Season Preview:
Veteran Additions:
RB D’Ernest Johnson, OT Josh Wells, K Brandon McManus.
Early Draft Picks:
OT Anton Harrison, TE Brenton Strange, RB Tank Bigsby, LB Ventrell Miller, DE Tyler Lacy, DE/OLB Yasir Abdullah, S/CB Antonio Johnson. Jaguars Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
WR Marvin Jones, TE Dan Arnold, OT Jawaan Taylor, DE Arden Key, CB Shaq Griffin, K Riley Patterson.
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Offense:
It was expected that Trevor Lawrence would take the league by storm as a rookie after such a prolific collegiate career at Clemson, but that did not occur. In fact, Lawrence struggled mightily during his initial NFL season. He failed to complete 60 percent of his passes, and he threw more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12). Of course, Lawrence couldn’t be blamed for this disastrous start. He was put into an impossible situation. He had no blocking from his offensive line, and he lost his top receiver in Week 4. Worst of all, he was coached by the incompetent Urban Meyer, who assaulted one of his players and went to party in Columbus instead of taking a flight home with his team from Cincinnati.
Meyer was dismissed during the season and eventually replaced with Doug Pederson. Now that he was being guided by a real coach, Lawrence finally began living up to his potential. Lawrence threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and only eight interceptions in his second season. His completion percentage soared to 66.3. He caught fire at the end of the season and led his team to the playoffs.
Despite the great finish, Lawrence is expected to do even better in his third season. Not only will he have more experience; he’ll also possess a new No. 1 receiver, as Calvin Ridley had his suspension rescinded by the NFL. The dynamic Ridley will join a receiving corps that already performed well last season. Christian Kirk showed major improvement, catching a career-high 84 passes for 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. Zay Jones was a reception machine, hauling 82 balls. There was also Evan Engram, who finally lived up to expectations and became the electric tight end everyone thought he was going to be when he was chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft.
There is also one more play-maker who hasn’t been discussed yet, and that would be Travis Etienne. The third-year rusher generated 1,125 rushing yards while catching 35 passes in his first full season of action. Etienne’s role will grow in 2023, as he won’t have to share touches with James Robinson like he did early this past season. Robinson is gone, so Etienne’s new backup will be D’Ernest Johnson, who made a name for himself with a brilliant performance on a Thursday night when he had to start for the Browns in place of the injured Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
If there’s one concern in Jacksonville’s offense, it’s the blocking. The tackles, in particular, could be in rough shape. This is because last year’s right tackle Jawaan Taylor, departed via free agency, while the left tackle, Cam Robinson, could be suspended. Jacksonville used its first-round pick on Anton Harrison to replace Taylor, but Robinson’s absence would be very problematic.
There are issues with the interior blocking as well. Luke Fortner struggled at center last year, but he was a third-round rookie, so he could improve. He’ll be sandwiched by the talented but injury-prone Brandon Scherff and Ben Bartch, who played in just five games this past season.
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Defense:
Trevor Lawrence had to carry Jacksonville into the playoffs because the defense was so abysmal. Starting in Week 10, the Jaguars surrendered 27 or more points on six occasions. They could not get off the field when battling the Chiefs twice, which spelled their demise in both games.
The Jaguars were expected to address their defense during the offseason, but that did not occur. In fact, they didn’t even spend a pick on the defensive side of the ball until the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Thus, Jacksonville will have to rely on its young players to improve. That would include last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Travon Walker, who logged just 3.5 sacks as a rookie. Walker played well at times, but was inconsistent. He’ll need to improve and become a dominant bookend for Josh Allen, who has notched 14.5 sacks over the past couple of seasons.
Jacksonville had two first-round picks last year, with the other being Devin Lloyd. The linebacker performed poorly last year, often being torched mercilessly in coverage. He needs to play better than Foye Oluokun, who had a solid initial season for the Jaguars.
The front office needed to bolster the defensive line this offseason, but failed to do so. It’ll once again go with the trio of Roy Robertson-Harris, Davon Hamilton and Folo Fatukasi. Of the three, Hamilton is the best player, as the massive, 6-4, 320-pound defensive tackle showed great signs of improvement last season. Robertson-Harris was a bit of a disappointment after being signed over from the Bears, performing at a mediocre level when it seemed as though he would thrive. Fatukasi was a huge disappointment after signing a large contract during the preceding spring.
Jacksonville’s secondary was another area that was in dire need of an upgrade. Cornerback was especially problematic last year, though not when referring to Tyson Campbell. The 2021 second-round pick has emerged as one of the better corners in the NFL. The Jaguars, however, have very little else at the position. They had to rely on Darious Williams last year, which did not end well. Tre Herndon played plenty of snaps in the slot and was beaten repeatedly by opposing receivers as well. Jacksonville curiously did not add to this position during the offseason.
Rounding out the secondary, the Jaguars will once again start Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins. Cisco is a solid player who has potential entering his third year. Jenkins, however, was a liability this past season.
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Schedule and Intangibles:
Jacksonville’s hot and humid climate contributed to its outstanding 83-53 home record from 1995 to 2011. They were just 9-29 as hosts in the four seasons prior to 2017, perhaps because of the curse of the swimming pool. That curse snapped temporarily, as Jacksonville was 6-2 at home in 2017, but the team was 3-4 as a host in each of the following two years. The 2020 and 2021 results are disregarded because the team was so terrible. The Jaguars reverted to 5-3 as hosts last year.
Brandon McManus had drilled at least 80 percent of his field goals every year since 2018, but that changed last year when he went 28-of-36. However, he was 8-of-13 from 50-plus.
Logan Cooke has been ranked first, sixth, first and sixth in net average over the past four seasons. It’s quite the relief, given that this franchise once selected a punter over Russell Wilson but has finally figured out the position.
The Jaguars have some tough opponents like the Chiefs, 49ers and Bengals, but their schedule is easy overall, given that they get to beat up on their divisional foes, as well as every team from the NFC South.
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Rookies:
Go here for the Jaguars Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.
2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
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2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis: Had the Jaguars made the necessary moves this offseason, they could have taken the next step as far as advancing deeper into the playoffs. They should win their division rather easily, but they will once again fall to one of the powerhouse teams in the conference.
Projection: 10-7 (1st in AFC South)
2022 Projection: 5-12. 2022 Actual Result: 9-8.
2021 Projection: 5-12. 2021 Actual Result: 3-14.
2020 Projection: 1-15. 2020 Actual Result: 1-15.
2019 Projection: 10-6. 2019 Actual Result: 6-10.
2018 Projection: 6-10. 2018 Actual Result: 5-11.
2017 Projection: 4-12. 2017 Actual Result: 10-6.
2016 Projection: 7-9. 2016 Actual Result: 3-13.
NFL Draft Team Grade: C Grade
Goals Entering the 2023 NFL Draft: The Jaguars made a big leap in Doug Pederson’s first year. They’re now in full control of the division, but they must look past the AFC South and focus on how to defeat the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals. Fixing their defense is a must, especially when it comes to the secondary and pass rush. Finding some offensive line help to protect Trevor Lawrence will be essential as well.
2023 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Jacksonville came out of the 2023 NFL Draft with 13 picks, thanks to their willingness to trade down twice in the first round. The team ultimately landed Anton Harrison, which was a terrific selection when factoring in the trades and also the need. With Jawaan Taylor gone and Cam Robinson facing suspension, the Jaguars desperately needed better blocking. Harrison could have easily been chosen a bit earlier, so I liked the value as well.
While the Jaguars began the draft well, things quickly took a turn for the worse. They failed to address their poor defense until the latter stages of the fourth round when they selected Ventrell Miller. I liked the pick, but hated everything in between Harrison and Miller. Brenton Strange was a colossal reach and didn’t fill a need as a tight end, while Tank Bigsby was a waste as a third-round running back.
Jacksonville at least spent most of its third-day assets on defensive players, but the team squandered an opportunity to bolster its stop unit with more substantial resources earlier in the draft. I can’t grade the Jaguars favorably because of this.
NFL Draft Individual Grades:
27. Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma – A Grade
I love that the Jaguars traded down twice. I thought they would pick Nolan Smith here, but Anton Harrison also makes a ton of sense. Jacksonville lost Jawaan Taylor this offseason, while Cam Robinson could be suspended. I had Harrison going No. 19 in my mock draft, so I don’t view this as a reach at all.
61. Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State – MILLEN Grade
This is a strange pick. Brenton Strange is someone I had late third round at the very earliest. Strange, who has nice run-after-the-catch ability, is a reach here, but not necessarily an egregious one. What really gets me is that tight end is the last thing the Jaguars needed. With lots of other holes on the roster, Jacksonville should have gone elsewhere. This is our first Millen of the weekend.
88. Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn – D Grade
Come on, guys, you have bigger needs than this. Tank Bigsby can help the Jaguars plow into the end zone, but Jacksonville already had two talented running backs in Travis Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson. The Jaguars had way bigger fish to fry.
121. Ventrell Miller, LB, Florida – B+ Grade
Ventrell Miller won’t be a three-down defender, but that’s fine because he’ll help the Jaguars defend the run. I had Miller around this range, so I’m a fan of Jacksonville drafting him at this spot.
130. Tyler Lacy, DE, Oklahoma State – B Grade
The Jaguars are getting a high-upside player in Tyler Lacy. However, Lacy needs to get bigger and stronger for the NFL, as he doesn’t appear to be ready to play many snaps in the pros at the moment. I actually had Lacy going one pick earlier, so the range makes sense.
136. Yasir Abdullah, DE/OLB, Louisville – C+ Grade
I didn’t have Yasir Abdullah in my mock draft, but he was in consideration for the final couple of rounds. Abdullah was productive as a pass rusher at Louisville, but he’s a bit small so he won’t be a full-time player.
160. Antonio Johnson, S/CB, Texas A&M – A Grade
I’ve had Antonio Johnson in the third or fourth round of most of my mock draft updates, so I love the value with this pick. Antonio Johnson doesn’t have great athleticism, but he’s a tall cornerback who was productive at Texas A&M. He may have to move to safety in the NFL.
185. Parker Washington, WR, Penn State – B- Grade
I don’t know why the Jaguars need another receiver, but they have a million picks, so I guess they were bound to take one. Parker Washington projects as a solid slot receiver in the pros.
202. Christian Braswell, CB, Oregon – C Grade
Christian Braswell is an instinctive cornerback, but he’s a small corner who will be pushed around. I didn’t have him in any of my mocks, but the Jaguars could have landed a decent depth player.
208. Erick Hallett, S, Pittsburgh – B- Grade
Erick Hallett is an instinctive safety, which should bode well for his outlook in the NFL. The problem is that he’s small and struggles to tackle, so he needs to improve in that regard. I’m fine with the Jaguars drafting a defensive back here though.
226. Cooper Hodges, OT/G, Appalachian State – B Grade
Cooper Hodges is a tough run blocker, but may have to move from tackle to guard in the pros. The Jaguars could use another guard, so that should be just fine. Hodges makes sense in this range.
227. Raymond Vohasek, DT, North Carolina – C Grade
I’m surprised Raymond Vohasek was drafted. He’s not a good pass rusher, and he has a very sketchy injury history. He’ll have trouble making the roster.
240. Derek Parish, DE/OLB, Houston – C+ Grade
Derek Parish is an explosive pass rusher, but the problem is that he has a very small frame and lacks strength. He’s a situational player at the very best.
Season Summary:
Trevor Lawrence was able to lead the Jaguars into the playoffs in his second season. He won a game, but struggled in the following round at Kansas City. The good news for Lawrence is that he’ll have Calvin Ridley at his disposal in 2023.
Offseason Moves:
Team Needs:
- Two Cornerbacks: Jacksonville was poor against the pass last year. Upgrading two of their cornerback spots would go a long way in repairing this aspect.
- Defensive Tackle: The Jaguars have missed Calais Campbell ever since he left. He has never been properly replaced, and doing so will really bolster the team’s weak defense.
- Safety: Here’s another area that should be upgraded. Rayshawn Jenkins was a huge disappointment last year, so Jacksonville should find some competition for him.
- Offensive Tackle: Jawaan Taylor is set to hit free agency, but the Jaguars may have wanted an upgrade anyway because he was one of the weaker links on the offensive line.
- Guard: Speaking of the offensive line, guard should be addressed despite the Brandon Scherff signing from last spring.
- Tight End: Evan Engram is the team’s top free agent. He was a great performer last year, so Jacksonville should re-sign him. Franchised Evan Engram
- Backup Quarterback: C.J. Beathard is a free agent, so if he’s not re-signed, another veteran quarterback will be needed.
Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2023 NFL Free Agent Signings:
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D’Ernest Johnson, RB, Browns. Age: 27. 
Signed with Jaguars
D’Ernest Johnson has been buried on Cleveland’s depth chart, but he has shown that he can be an effective runner when given the chance.
- Josh Wells, OT, Buccaneers. Age: 32.
— Signed with Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars Free Agents:
Salary Cap: TBA.
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Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars. Age: 28.
Franchised by Jaguars
Evan Engram was seen as a bust entering 2022. He came alive this past season, finally finding a home in Jacksonville. Engram was dominant at times, so perhaps he’ll continue to play at this level if he re-signs with the Jaguars.
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Shaq Griffin, CB, Jaguars. Age: 28.
Signed with Texans
Shaq Griffin is coming off a down year because of a back injury, but he was a solid cornerback beforehand. He’s young enough to rebound.
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Jawaan Taylor, OT, Jaguars. Age: 25.
Signed with Chiefs (4 years, $80 million)
Jawaan Taylor made improvements in his pass protection last year, but was still a poor run blocker.
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Arden Key, DE, Jaguars. Age: 27.
Signed with Titans (3 years, $24 million)
Arden Key is a solid rotational pass rusher. He has accumulated 11 sacks in the past two seasons.
- Dawuane Smoot, DE, Jaguars. Age: 28. — Re-signed with Jaguars
- Marvin Jones, WR, Jaguars. Age: 33. — Signed with Lions
- Tre Herndon, CB, Jaguars. Age: 27. — Re-signed with Jaguars
- Dan Arnold, TE, Jaguars. Age: 28. — Signed with Eagles
- Chris Manhertz, TE, Jaguars. Age: 31. — Signed with Broncos
- Corey Peters, DT, Jaguars. Age: 35.
- C.J. Beathard, QB, Jaguars. Age: 29.
- Adam Gotsis, DT, Jaguars. Age: 30. — Re-signed with Jaguars
- Tevaughn Campbell, CB, Jaguars. Age: 30. — Re-signed with Jaguars
NFL Free Agent Tracker:
QB | RB | FB | WR | TE | OT | G | C | DE | DT | OLB | ILB | CB | S | K/P | FA Grades | FA Rumors
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