New England Patriots (Last Year: 10-7)
2022 NFL Season Preview:
Veteran Additions:
RB Ty Montgomery, LB Mack Wilson, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Jabrill Peppers.
Early Draft Picks:
G Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton, CB Marcus Jones, CB Jack Jones, RB Pierre Strong, QB Bailey Zappe. Patriots Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
RB Brandon Bolden, RB James White, FB Jakob Johnson, G Shaq Mason, G/C Ted Karras, DE Chase Winovich, LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins, CB J.C. Jackson.
2022 New England Patriots Offense:
Teams not named the Patriots had 14 opportunities to select Mac Jones in the 2021 NFL Draft, yet none of them pulled the trigger. It seemed as though the Patriots were the only team that wanted him, yet Bill Belichick had the last laugh, at least heading into 2022. Despite all the great quarterback prospects from last year, Jones was the best of the bunch in 2021. He even outclassed the heralded Trevor Lawrence, who was the supposed best quarterback to enter the NFL since Peyton Manning.
Jones completed 67.6 percent of his passes on a 7.3 YPA, and he threw 22 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He was far better than anyone anticipated, though it would be unwise to ignore his unbelievable coaching staff and prolific offensive line. The blocking unit was one of the NFL’s best last year, though there’s reason to expect a decline from it in 2022. That would be because the Buccaneers acquired Shaq Mason, who is one of the best guards in the league. Mason will be missed, but the Patriots will be hoping that Belichick once again proves everyone wrong with an unexpected draft pick. This is in reference to Cole Strange, a third-prospect who was chosen No. 29 overall. The Rams famously joked that they thought they would get him in the third frame. However, Belichick could once again have the last laugh.
The rest of the offensive line has remained intact. This includes the pair of tackles, Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown. Both are stellar blockers, though Brown has an extensive injury history. The Patriots don’t have much depth at tackle, so another injury to Brown could be problematic. Meanwhile, David Andrews and Michael Onwenu will start at center and right guard, respectively. Andrews is one of the top players at his position in the NFL, while Onewnu will handle a full-time role after being a backup last year. Onwenu has performed well when given an opportunity.
Thanks to the powerful offensive line, the Patriots maintained a strong rushing attack, which also helped Jones in his rookie campaign. The default starter is Damien Harris, who rushed for 929 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Harris shared the workload with Rhamondre Stevenson, who has shown more upside. Stevenson has shown that he can both trample the opposition and go the distance when he touches the ball. There’s also Pierre Strong, a fourth-round rookie who is expected to replace James White as the team’s receiving back.
While Jones was able to lean on a great offensive line and dominant rushing attack, he didn’t have the best receivers at his disposal. Jakobi Meyers was his top wide receiver last year when he would have been better off as a No. 2 option. That will be the case in 2022 because the Patriots added DeVante Parker to the roster. Parker had a woeful start to his career in Miami despite being a first-round pick, but he found his way in the wake of Adam Gase’s departure. Parker should continue to play well under Belichick, as should Kendrick Bourne, a versatile threat who registered 800 receiving yards and 125 rushing yards in 2021. Jones will also target Hunter Henry, who proved to be a big upgrade at tight end.
2022 New England Patriots Defense:
The Patriots won games last year with their running game and defense. The stop unit was one of the league’s best, ranking fourth in yards allowed. There’s reason to believe, however, that the Patriots will decline on this side of the ball in 2022.
The primary catalyst for this regression is the departure of J.C. Jackson. One of the top cornerbacks in the NFL last year, Jackson has signed with the Chargers. This prompted Bill Belichick to address the position via free agency and the draft. Belichick signed old friend Malcolm Butler, as well as Terrance Mitchell. Butler, who will always be known as the hero of the Super Bowl victory over Seattle, took the 2021 season off, so he’ll either be rusty or refreshed. New England shouldn’t count on Mitchell for very much, so that’s where Marcus Jones and Jack Jones will factor into the equation. Marcus Jones, chosen in the third round, will challenge for the slot corner job, while Jack Jones, a fourth-round pick, will compete on the outside with Butler to start across from Jalen Mills, the team’s lone, viable returning outside cornerback.
Mills could always play at safety in the event of an injury to one of the starters. Then again, the Patriots are loaded at the position. Devin McCourty was still one of the top safeties in the NFL last year, though he could decline this season because he turns 35 in August. He’ll play along with third-year Kyle Dugger, who improved last season, and Adrian Phillips, who is coming off an excellent 2021 campaign.
Outside of pure talent, the primary reason the Patriots’ secondary thrived last year was because the front seven was able to generate plenty of heat on opposing quarterbacks. They were fifth in pressure rate, and much of that can be attributed to Matthew Judon. The former Raven racked up 12.5 sacks in his first season with the Patriots. Deatrich Wise was a fine bookend for Judon last year, while Josh Uche has some promise as a second-round pick from the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Patriots were also able to get a good rush from the interior. That’s because the second-round choice from the 2021 NFL Draft, Christian Barmore, had an excellent rookie campaign. He didn’t hold up as well against the run, but if he keeps improving, he’ll become a terror for opposing quarterbacks. He’ll once again start next to Davon Godchaux, who is much better at stopping ground attacks.
Rounding out the defense, there’s some concern about the linebacking corps, thanks to Belichick’s odd decision to jettison Kyle Van Noy. Ja’Whaun Bentley is a quality starter, but there aren’t any other proven, viable players at the position.
2022 New England Patriots Schedule and Intangibles:
Since 2003, the Patriots are 138-27 at home. They’ve been a near-perfect 66-17 as hosts in the past 83 games, with two losses coming against the Bills without Tom Brady. That said, New England lost a home playoff game to Tennessee.
The Stephen Gostkowski era is over. The Patriots moved on from him with Nick Folk, who went 36-of-39, including 5-of-8 from 50-plus last year.
Jake Bailey was a middling punter in 2019, finishing 15th in net average. He rose to first in 2020, then was around 10th in 2021.
New England neither scored nor allowed a special teams touchdown.
The Patriots have a number of tough games on their schedule, including the Ravens, Packers, Browns, Raiders, Bengals and Bills twice.
2022 New England Patriots Rookies:
Go here for the Patriots Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.
2022 New England Patriots Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
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2022 New England Patriots Analysis: Mac Jones is certainly not going to catch anyone by surprise in his second season. The offensive line will be a bit worse, and the secondary lost its top cornerback, so New England is expected to be a bit worse in 2022 than it was the prior year. However, Bill Belichick’s presence means another playoff appearance is still possible, even in an extremely tough conference.
Projection: 10-7 (2nd in AFC East)
2021 Projection: 8-9. 2021 Actual Result: 10-7.
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 7-9.
2019 Projection: 11-5. 2019 Actual Result: 12-4.
2018 Projection: 14-2. 2018 Actual Result: 11-5.
2017 Projection: 14-2. 2017 Actual Result: 13-3.
2016 Projection: 12-4. 2016 Actual Result: 14-2.
NFL Draft Team Grade: D- Grade
Goals Entering the 2022 NFL Draft: The Patriots traded for DeVante Parker, so they’re not hurting for receiving help like they were entering the offseason. Still, they could stand to add a wideout and a new blocker. Otherwise, the Patriots will have to fill some needs on the defensive side of the ball.
2022 NFL Draft Accomplishments: In the eternal words of Dr. Samuel Becket, “Oh boy.” What was Bill Belichick smoking when he entered draft weekend? Most of his picks made no sense. His opening-round choice, Cole Strange, was a third-round prospect at best. Tyquan Thornton, taken in the second frame, was projected to go at some point on Day 3.
And yet, that was just the beginning of the calamity known as the Patriots’ 2022 draft class. Two selections were spent on running backs when New England already had a log jam at the position on the roster. A fourth-rounder was used on Bailey Zappe, a quarterback with no upside.
I thought hard about giving the Patriots an F/Millen for their overall grade, but I decided on a D- because Belichick at least tried to help Mac Jones by giving him several new blockers and a receiver with some upside. He also tried to fix the secondary with third- and fourth-round selections. It wasn’t all a complete failure, but it was close.
NFL Draft Individual Grades:
29. Cole Strange, G, UT-Chattanooga – MILLEN Grade
Our first Millen grade of the 2022 NFL Draft is by … the Patriots!? Wow! I don’t get this at all. Bill Belichick easily could’ve made this selection in the second round, or maybe even the third. I had Cole Strange 144th in my mock draft. I looked around to see if I was just way off, and Charlie Campbell had Strange 115th. Going off-side, Dane Brugler had Strange 93rd. Did Belichick think we were in the third round? I don’t understand this pick at all.
50. Tyquan Thornton, WR, Baylor – MILLEN Grade
I’m convinced Bill Belichick is on drugs. He spent a first-round pick on a third-round guard, and now he traded up for a fifth-round prospect in the second frame. Belichick could’ve traded down for Thornton and still acquired him! I don’t understand what’s happening, but if Belichick keeps making these horrible picks, I’m going to have to re-name MILLEN to BELICHICK.
85. Marcus Jones, CB, Houston – B Grade
I expected Bill Belichick to draft a 2024 UDFA at this rate, but he finally didn’t reach. Marcus Jones is someone I always tried to move up in my mock draft. He makes sense in the third round, and he obviously fills a need after New England lost J.C. Jackson.
121. Jack Jones, CB, Arizona State – C+ Grade
Surprise, surprise, the Patriots reached for a player! It’s not as bad to do so on Day 3, but I had Jack Jones in the sixth or seventh round in some of my updates. He thrived at the combine, but he could have been chosen later than this. Still, it makes sense that New England would take a cornerback, and Bill Belichick knows a thing or two about players at that position.
127. Pierre Strong, RB, South Dakota State – C- Grade
Bill Belichick might send me hate mail after this draft, but I don’t like this pick either. Pierre Strong is a bit of a reach, and the Patriots have no need for a running back with so much talent at the position.
137. Bailey, Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky – D Grade
Yeah, I’m definitely getting hate mail from Bill Belichick, and I’ll publish it for sure. What is this? Did the Patriots forget that he has Mac Jones on his roster? I know the fourth round is a time for backup quarterbacks, but it’s not like Bailey Zappe is the best player at the position. This seems like a wasted selection.
183. Kevin Harris, RB, South Carolina – D Grade
I’m not going to flunk the Patriots for a sixth-round pick, but this is ridiculous at this point. They’re not addressing any sort of need, and they’re taking a player who was a consensus UDFA. Forget the hate mail; Bill Belichick may send a bomb to my house!
200. Sam Roberts, DL, Northwest Missouri State University – D Grade
Bill Belichick is going off the grid and picking players no one has ever heard of before. Sam Roberts has nice size, but he was not on anyone’s radar as a draftable prospect.
210. Chasen Hines, G, LSU – A+ Grade
I can’t believe it. I love a Bill Belichick pick. Maybe he won’t bomb my house after all. Chasen Hines is an absolute steal toward the end of the sixth round. I thought he would be chosen in the third or fourth frame. Charlie Campbell agrees, as he listed Hines on his draft sleepers page.
245. Andrew Steuber, OT/G, Michigan – B+ Grade
It should come as no surprise that the Patriots drafted a versatile offensive lineman. Andrew Steuber can play both tackle and guard. I like this pick – it’s true, Bill – as Steuber could’ve been taken a bit earlier than this.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Season Summary:
It didn’t take very long for the Patriots to reach the playoffs following the end of the Tom Brady era. Mac Jones played very well as a rookie, which obviously bodes well for New England’s chances in the future.
Offseason Moves:
Team Needs:
- Wide Receiver: Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne are both solid receivers, but neither one is a No. 1 option.
- Two Cornerbacks: The Patriots will only need one cornerback if the excellent J.C. Jackson is retained. They didn’t get good play across from Jackson. Signed Malcolm Butler and Terrance Mitchell
- Defensive End: Matthew Judon was an excellent addition to New England’s defense, but the team needs another edge rusher.
- Defensive Tackle: New England could also stand to address the interior of the defensive line to add pressure that way.
- Right Tackle: Trent Brown is an impending free agent, so he’ll need to be re-signed or replaced. Re-signed with Patriots (2 years)
- Two Linebackers: Dont’a Hightower is set to hit free agency, but he’s 32 anyway. Kyle Van Noy, meanwhile, was released. Traded for Mack Wilson
- Kicker: Nick Folk has done a great job of kicking for New England in recent seasons, but he’ll be hitting free agency. Re-signed Nick Folk
Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2022 NFL Free Agent Signings:
- Jabrill Peppers, S, Giants. Age: 26.
— Signed with Patriots
- Terrance Mitchell, CB, Texans. Age: 30. — Signed with Patriots
- Ty Montgomery, RB/WR, Saints. Age: 29. — Signed with Patriots (2 years, $4 million)
New England Patriots Free Agents:
Salary Cap: TBA.
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J.C. Jackson, CB, Patriots. Age: 26.
Signed with Chargers (5 years, $82.5 million)
J.C. Jackson evolved into one of the top shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL this past season. He’s only 26, so he could get even better in the near future.
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Devin McCourty, S, Patriots. Age: 35.
Re-signed with Patriots (1 year, $9 million)
Devin McCourty has been one of the top safeties in the NFL. However, he’s now 35, so major regression will happen at some point in the near future.
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Trent Brown, OT, Patriots. Age: 29.
Re-signed with Patriots (2 years)
Trent Brown is a stellar, monstrous right tackle, but he’s had trouble staying healthy. Brown has missed 24 games in the past three seasons.
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Nick Folk, K, Patriots. Age: 37.
Re-signed with Patriots (2 years, $5 million)
Nick Folk has drilled 92 percent of his field goals over the past two years. He’s 7-of-11 from 50-plus in that span.
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Ted Karras, G, Patriots. Age: 29.
Signed with Bengals (3 years, $18 million)
Ted Karras stepped into the starting lineup in October and never looked back. He was an excellent starting guard on New England’s stellar offensive line.
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James White, RB, Patriots. Age: 30.
Re-signed with Patriots (2 years, $5 million)
James White is one of the top pass-catching backs in the NFL, but he barely played last year. He also turns 30 this offseason.
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Dont’a Hightower, LB, Patriots. Age: 32.
Dont’a Hightower was an excellent linebacker over the years, but struggled in 2021. Perhaps age was a factor, but Hightower was banged up as well.
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Kyle Van Noy, OLB, Patriots. Age: 32.
Signed with Chargers
Kyle Van Noy turns 32 this offseason, but he’s still a capable linebacker in coverage.
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Jakob Johnson, FB, Patriots. Age: 27.
Signed with Raiders (1 year)
Jakob Johnson is an excellent blocking fullback. It’s unclear why the Patriots didn’t tender him.
- Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots. Age: 32.
- Ja’Whaun Bentley, LB, Patriots. Age: 26.
- Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots. Age: 32. — Signed with Raiders
- Carl Davis, DT, Patriots. Age: 30.
- Harvey Langi, LB, Patriots. Age: 29.
- Brandon King, LB, Patriots. Age: 29.
- De’Vante Bausby, CB, Patriots. Age: 29.
NFL Free Agent Tracker:
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