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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 5 matchup
Week 5 · Mon, Oct 12 · Line: Rams -3 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Bills | Rams | |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | Power rank ◀ | #3 |
| 3-1 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 2-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread ◀ | 2-2 |
| 1-0on the road | ATS on the road / at home even | 1-0at home |
| 0-0as underdog | ATS as favorite / underdog n/a | 2-2as favorite |
| +0.1pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | -3.6pts per game |
| +20 | Point differential ◀ | +2 |
| 14.2avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ▶ | 13.2avg. opp. rank |
| #18 | Net EPA rank ▶ | #2 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Weeks 2-5, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Bills offense | Rams defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #3 | EPA per play ▶ | #2 |
| #7 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #2 |
| #1 | Rush EPA ◀ | #4 |
| #4 | Success rate ▶ | #2 |
| Bills defense | Rams offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #29 | EPA per play ▶ | #9 |
| #28 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #13 |
| #22 | Rush EPA ▶ | #5 |
| #29 | Success rate ▶ | #8 |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Buffalo BillsBills 36, TEXANS 31 (HOU +0.5). This was a back-and-forth thriller with big plays by both teams on both sides of the ball. The Texans forgot to run the ball in the second half and Kamari Lassiter dropped a game-sealing interception. The Texans had a chance to win at the end, but the Bills sacked C.J. Stroud twice in the red zone. 409-381 BUF, 7.9-5.2 BUF
BILLS 41, Lions 31 (BUF -5.5). The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, while the offensive line couldn't block because three linemen were sidelined. The Lions were down 27-7 and got most of their yardage in garbage time. 446-355 BUF, 6.5-5.7 BUF
BILLS 24, Chargers 16 (BUF -7). The Bills made plenty of mistakes in the first half with a James Cook fumble and two Justin Herbert interceptions, but the Chargers couldn't capitalize on them and then made mistakes in the second half. 350-348 BUF, 5.6-5.4 BUF
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
Los Angeles Rams49ers 27, Rams 7 (LAR -4). This was an even game in the first half, but the 49ers controlled the ball in the second half, as the Rams looked exhausted from traveling 24 hours beforehand, whereas the 49ers traveled a week earlier. 379-290 SF, 5.9-5.1 SF
RAMS 28, Giants 6 (LAR -7). Jaxson Dart got hurt on the first drive and Jameis Winston struggled in relief. The Matthew Stafford to Davante Adams connection was lethal all night. 481-182 LAR, 8.0-3.3 LAR
BRONCOS 30, Rams 26 (DEN +2.5). The Rams were up 16-0 at halftime and were in complete control, but the Broncos caught fire in the second half. The Rams went up 26-23, but the officials gave the Broncos a win on a silver platter with a horrible call at the end. 482-257 LAR, 5.9-4.3 LAR
Rams 24, EAGLES 20 (PHI +3). The Eagles played terribly for most of the game, but had a 20-10 lead because the Rams made so many mistakes. The Eagles couldn't maintain their lead because they were 0-of-12 on third down. The Rams stormed back with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. 415-172 LAR, 5.4-3.0 LAR
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 5 matchups · Buffalo Bills team page · Los Angeles Rams team page
