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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 10 matchup
Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · Line: Chiefs -3.5 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Chiefs | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| #6 | Power rank ◀ | #23 |
| 6-2 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 3-6 |
| 4-4 | Against the spread ◀ | 3-6 |
| 1-3on the road | ATS on the road / at home even | 1-3at home |
| 4-3as favorite | ATS as favorite / underdog ◀ | 3-4as underdog |
| +2.1pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | -1.9pts per game |
| +59 | Point differential ◀ | -35 |
| 20.6avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ▶ | 15.0avg. opp. rank |
| #6 | Net EPA rank ◀ | #29 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Week 2 onward, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Chiefs offense | Falcons defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #12 | EPA per play ◀ | #31 |
| #16 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #19 |
| #3 | Rush EPA ◀ | #31 |
| #7 | Success rate ◀ | #28 |
| #1928.7% of dropbacks | Pressure rate allowed vs. pressure rate ▶ | #433.0% of dropbacks |
| Chiefs defense | Falcons offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #7 | EPA per play ◀ | #18 |
| #18 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #22 |
| #6 | Rush EPA ◀ | #8 |
| #14 | Success rate ◀ | #19 |
| #2625.8% of dropbacks | Pressure rate vs. pressure rate allowed ▶ | #121.8% of dropbacks |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Kansas City ChiefsCHIEFS 31, Broncos 10 (KC -3). Outside of one early drive, the Chiefs struggled in the first half with some shaky play from Patrick Mahomes. Kenneth Walker wore down the Broncos in the second half, and Denver could do nothing offensively with Bo Nix not scrambling at all. 392-176 KC, 5.9-3.7 KC
CHIEFS 33, Colts 30 (KC -6.5). This was a back-and-forth game where barely any defense was played. The Chiefs won with two possessions in overtime compared to the Colts' one. 523-329 KC, 6.7-5.2 KC
Chiefs 24, DOLPHINS 10 (MIA +11.5). The Chiefs were up 14-7 when they began making mistakes. The Dolphins were able to hang around despite losing DeVon Achane, but the Chiefs eventually scored two late touchdowns to put the game out of reach. 334-329 KC, 6.8-4.9 KC
Chiefs 30, RAIDERS 27 (LV +4.5). This was a back-and-forth game where the Raiders took the lead with five minutes to go. The Raiders fumbled a punt return following a late Chiefs touchdown, which basically ended the game. 437-399 LV, 6.9-5.6 KC
CHIEFS 22, Chargers 6 (KC -8). Justin Herbert had no chance battling Kansas City's relentless pressure. The Chargers had the ball on five occasions in Chiefs territory, but could only manage six points, thanks to a field goal after getting to the 1-yard line and a lost fumble. 422-259 KC, 7.4-4.1 KC
SEAHAWKS 20, Chiefs 3 (SEA -2.5). The Seahawks dominated this game on both sides of the ball. They smothered Patrick Mahomes with pressure, and Sam Darnold was able to convert 11-of-16 third downs against Kansas City's secondary. 410-213 SEA, 5.9-4.3 SEA
BRONCOS 28, Chiefs 24 (DEN +1.5). Bo Nix threw plenty of short passes, drawing some boos, but the Broncos were able to mount a comeback in the second half and take the lead late, thanks in part to a missed field goal. The Chiefs nearly won, but stalled inside the Denver 5-yard line. 399-294 KC, 6.0-5.3 KC
CHIEFS 35, Jets 12 (KC -10). It looked like Patrick Mahomes would be out with an elbow injury when he held his arm in pain, but he ended up not missing any time and was hot in the second half after a very close 14-12 game in the first half. 391-229 KC, 6.0-3.7 KC
Atlanta FalconsSTEELERS 20, Falcons 13 (PIT -3.5). The Steelers allowed the Falcons to hang around with some sluggish offense and a Jaylen Warren fumble, but the Steelers came up big with huge plays against Cooper Rush. 264-238 PIT, 4.2-4.1 ATL
Panthers 34, FALCONS 3 (ATL +2.5). The Falcons had a pathetic offense that made lots of mistakes the entire game. Bryce Young made some great throws in the second half. 340-286 CAR, 5.7-4.3 CAR
Falcons 35, PACKERS 14 (GB -4.5). The Packers couldn't pass protect or run the ball, and they had severe issues stopping Bijan Robinson. The Packers went up 7-0 but allowed 27 consecutive points after that. 498-328 ATL, 7.5-5.2 ATL
Falcons 45, SAINTS 24 (NO -2.5). The Falcons ran all over the inept Saints defense. Tyler Shough had no time to throw, and a chunk of his yardage came in garbage time. 420-320 ATL, 7.5-4.6 ATL
Ravens 30, FALCONS 23 (ATL -3.5). The Falcons led for most of the game because of Mark Andrews' mistakes, but Tyler Huntley caught fire at the end of the game leading drives to tie at the end of regulation and in overtime to win it. Michael Penix got hurt at the end. 391-367 BAL, 5.7-5.5 ATL
Bears 31, FALCONS 23 (ATL PK). The Bears got out to a 31-7 lead in this game with great Caleb Williams passing and some turnovers forced on Atlanta. The Falcons got garbage time and made this game interesting very late, but Chicago's defense shut the door on Michael Penix Jr. 368-257 CHI, 5.1-5.0 ATL
FALCONS 29, 49ers 20 (ATL +2.5). The Falcons were down 7-0 and 14-9, but Christian McCaffrey got hurt and the 49ers had some turnovers. It looked like San Francisco ran out of gas in the second half. 400-295 SF, 6.2-4.7 SF
BUCCANEERS 16, Falcons 0 (TB -2.5). The conditions were so poor that the Buccaneers won despite not completing a pass. Running was the only option and the Falcons couldn't do that because of Vita Vea. Tampa ran for 310 yards. 322-224 TB, 5.4-4.3 TB
Bengals 34, Falcons 17 (CIN -3). Joe Burrow was completely locked in, shredding the Falcons with ease. Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase made numerous great plays throughout the first half, while Michael Penix's noodle arm was exposed. 388-319 CIN, 7.1-5.8 CIN
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 10 matchups · Kansas City Chiefs team page · Atlanta Falcons team page
