After back-to-back disgusting TNF games, NFL fans are blessed with a great matchup this week. That is a joke, and so is this game. However, that won’t stop me from firing on a few bets I like. Very few people expected the Patriots to be in this position at this point in the season. The 7-2 Pats are looking to hold onto their lead atop the AFC East, taking on one of the worst teams in the league in the 2-7 New York Jets.
The Patriots are rolling right now. They’ve won seven straight and head into this matchup with clear momentum behind them. Their defense is stout, and their offense, under 2nd-year QB Drake Maye, has hit its stride. Maye is now the favorite for MVP, surpassing Josh Allen after the Bills fell to the Dolphins. Rookie running back Treveyon Henderson finally had a breakout week, adding more explosiveness to this offense.
Meanwhile, the Jets are still digging out of a hole that is likely too deep. After starting the season 0-7, they’ve finally picked up a couple of wins, but their offense remains one of the worst in the league. Last week, they managed to squeak out a win against the equally bad Browns, and needed 2 special teams touchdowns to do so. Also, they’ll be without top wideout Garrett Wilson due to a knee injury.
This one might not be a primetime thriller, but from a betting standpoint, there is enough to work with. The Patriots are opening as a 12.5-point home favorite according to Massachusetts betting apps, with the total floating around 43.5 points.
Let’s look at my game pick and then dig into some prop plays I like for this contest.
Game Pick: Patriots -12.5
As much as I hate taking favorites to cover multiple score spreads, I just don’t see how I could justify taking the other side here. The Jets’ offense game is so bad that I can’t even find passing props for Justin Fields. Meanwhile, the Patriots are clicking in all areas. There is no such thing as a sure thing in football or sports betting, but I simply don’t see this game being close. My only worry is a garbage-time score to cover when the game is already decided. I think the Patriots should hold the Jets to around 10-13 points, and the offense is more than capable of scoring in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Breece Hall Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Poor Breece Hall. He wanted so badly to be included in the Jets’ flash sale before the trade deadline, but he is stuck with this dumpster fire. With Wilson out, Hall is the only bright spot of the offense. While I worry about the game script forcing the Jets to pass more while playing from behind, there should still be plenty of touches for Breece. He had 21 carries against the Browns, so if he gets around 15 carries, I still think he can break 60 yards. Hall is a very talented running back, and a line like this is hard to pass up.
Mason Taylor Under 4.5 Receptions (-140)
I’m learning from last week, as well as from other recent primetime games. I need to mix in an under here and there, and this is one I like. Justin Fields completed just 6 passes all last week, so I would stray away from any one pass catcher for the Jets getting 5 or more receptions. Mason Taylor is going to be a very good tight end, but as of right now, this seems like an easy fade.
Hunter Henry Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
On the flip side, I like New England’s tight end to hit his receiving mark this week. The Patriots haven’t exactly had a clear #1 target, and it seems to rotate on a weekly basis. Henry gets all of the receiving work at his position, so he seems like the safest option. 35 yards is pretty low, and is only that low because Henry’s averages took a hit with just 9 yards last week. He will bounce back in this game.
Total Odds on 3-leg SGP: +500
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Running total:
Game Picks ATS: 3-0
Player Props: 3-6
Last Week’s Results:
Raiders +9.5 ✅
Bo Nix O 217.5 Passing Yards ❌
RJ Harvey O 38.5 Rush + Rec Yards ❌
Brock Bowers O 6.5 Receptions ❌
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at BettingApps.com, covering the latest sportsbook news, app reviews, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. For the rest of the season, he will provide weekly analysis, predictions, and updates to help readers make smarter bets and stay ahead of the game.
