NBA DraftKings Sims DFS Picks

Victor Wembanyama

It’s fun to play DraftKings and FanDuel and hope to win six or even seven figures, but sims have broken the experience. Some DFS sites, a few of which are run by very sketchy characters, charge upwards of $400 or $500 per month for their sims. This creates a heavy imbalance between the sharks and the casual players. 

I’ve created a program that spits out analysis of what these sims provide. I can’t give you full lineups because DraftKings will ban me, but I can give you the thought process behind the sims lineup generation and a partial lineup to go with it. 

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Lineup 1 — Wemby CPT / Spurs secondary ceiling

Slot Player Team Salary Proj Own
CPT Victor Wembanyama SAS $18,900 89.30 48%
UTIL Karl-Anthony Towns NYK $10,200 47.16 70%
UTIL De’Aaron Fox SAS $7,600 36.35 63%

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UTIL Carter Bryant SAS $1,200 4.46 5%

 
Projection: 232.94

Lineup 2 — Castle CPT / Spurs upset script

Slot Player Team Salary Proj Own
CPT Stephon Castle SAS $12,900 55.61 27%
UTIL Victor Wembanyama SAS $12,600 59.53 48%
UTIL Karl-Anthony Towns NYK $10,200 47.16 70%

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UTIL Carter Bryant SAS $1,200 4.46 5%

 
Projection: 226.73

Lineup 3 — Shamet CPT / KAT-fail shooting script

Slot Player Team Salary Proj Own
CPT Landry Shamet NYK $7,200 21.38 3%
UTIL Victor Wembanyama SAS $12,600 59.53 48%
UTIL Jalen Brunson NYK $10,600 45.58 54%

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UTIL Devin Vassell SAS $6,200 27.69 43%

 
Projection: 218.50

Lineup 4 — Bridges CPT / Knicks wing path

Slot Player Team Salary Proj Own
CPT Mikal Bridges NYK $9,900 43.88 52%
UTIL Victor Wembanyama SAS $12,600 59.53 48%
UTIL Karl-Anthony Towns NYK $10,200 47.16 70%

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UTIL Harrison Barnes SAS $1,000 3.58 6%

 
Projection: 227.56

Lineup 5 — Harper CPT / Spurs secondary usage spike

Slot Player Team Salary Proj Own
CPT Dylan Harper SAS $8,100 32.22 19%
UTIL Victor Wembanyama SAS $12,600 59.53 48%
UTIL Stephon Castle SAS $8,600 37.07 27%

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UTIL Julian Champagnie SAS $5,800 27.98 41%

 
Projection: 225.14

Analysis

Lineup 1 is the closest to a strong projection build, but it gets leverage by using Carter Bryant and fading Brunson. It assumes Wemby breaks the slate and the Spurs secondary pieces all benefit.

Lineup 2 is the Spurs upset script: Castle CPT, Wemby still elite, and KAT as the Knicks bring-back. This is less optimizer-like because Castle CPT is the slate-breaking assumption.

Lineup 3 is the role-player shooting script. Shamet CPT is uncomfortable, but that is the point. It assumes KAT fails while Brunson/Wemby/Fox still produce and Shamet spikes from three.

Lineup 4 bets on Bridges beating his median through minutes, steals, and transition scoring while still keeping Wemby/KAT/Fox. Barnes is the thin uniqueness piece.

Lineup 5 is the Spurs secondary-usage build. Harper CPT is unlikely, but it gives a very different first-place path if he becomes the unexpected scorer/creator while the Spurs core succeeds.

 

 

 

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