Props website Cleatz recently announced the results of their analysis of 2,400+ NFL player performances over the past three seasons, and the results reveal which metrics actually predict breakout performances versus which ones just look impressive on paper.

Route Participation Rate: The Hidden Volume Indicator?

Wide receivers with 70% or higher route participation rates hit the over on reception props 62.4% of the time, compared to just 48.1% for receivers below that threshold. This metric measures opportunity before the ball is even thrown.

A receiver averaging 5.5 receptions per game with 85% route participation versus one averaging 6 receptions with 60% participation might see similar lines from sportsbooks. But our data shows the high-participation player is 14 percentage points more likely to hit the over.

Snap Count Trends Trump Season Averages

Players with increasing snap count trends over a three-game span hit overs 58.7% of the time on their next game. Running backs provide the clearest example. A back averaging 14 carries per game for the season might look like a safe under, but if his last three games show snap counts of 52%, 61%, and 68%, that under becomes a trap.

Yards Before Contact Separates Elite from Average

The top-10 running backs in yards before contact averaged 2.8 yards compared to 1.2 for the bottom 10. More tellingly, the top-tier backs hit the over on rushing yards props 64.3% of the time versus 41.7% for bottom-tier backs, even when their season averages were similar. This metric isolates offensive line performance from running back talent.

The Market Lag

Despite sharper lines, the sports betting market still lags 5-7 days behind these advanced metrics. When a player’s snap count spikes 15%+ or their yards before contact improves dramatically, books typically need multiple games to adjust lines accordingly.