Sunday Night Football kicks off in Pittsburgh, as the Packers (4-1-1) take on the Steelers (4-2). The headline obviously is Aaron Rodgers facing off against his former team for the first time since he was traded by the organization.
Even though Rodgers claims he doesn’t see it as a revenge game, the 4x MVP certainly has had this one circled. It will be his second game of the season against a former team, as Rodgers beat the Jets in the season opener, throwing for 4 touchdowns. While I’m sure many bets will ride on Rodgers to succeed or fail as the main storyline of the game, I think there are smarter picks out there.
Currently, the Packers are listed as -3.0 favorites across betting apps in PA. I like Green Bay to cover that spread (maybe buy it to -2.5), but I am more focused on the player props.
Before we get set to watch the game, let’s look at my picks for best bets on Sunday Night Football.
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
While Rodgers is getting most of the attention going into the game, his former backup is the one to count on to throw a pair of touchdown passes. The Steelers’ defense just gave up 340+ yards and 3 touchdowns to 40-year-old Joe Flacco, who had been on the Bengals for all of 10 days prior to the matchup. Love is averaging 1.7 TDs on the season and is coming off a bye week. While the Packers lack a true WR1, I expect Jordan to spread the Love (sorry) and score through the air at least twice.
Pat Freiermuth Over 2.5 Receptions (+114)
In a crowded tight end room on the Steelers, it is a bit scary to pick who will see the most work in the passing game. However, Friermuth, who had been extremely quiet to start the season, had a resurgence last week in Cincinnati. He had 5 receptions for 111 yards and 2 TDs. While that isn’t likely to repeat, my optimism comes from the way he was getting the ball. Arthur Smith called back-to-back screen passes to Friermuth, showing that it was a part of the game plan to get him the ball. Against a good pass rush, Rodgers will need to get rid of the ball quickly, and he may have found a new favorite safety blanket in Friermuth. Also, the positive odds are a great value here.
Josh Jacobs Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Yes, I know I already took Jordan Love’s passing touchdowns, but there should be enough offense to go around for the Packers. Pittsburgh is 28th in yards per game allowed, and just gave up 108 yards to Chase Brown on just 11 carries. Coming off a week of rest, Jacobs will have fresh legs and should receive a good workload of between 16-20 carries. This is the prop I feel best about, and would even consider bumping it up on an alternate line to get better odds.
Total Parlay Odds: +550
If you like all three picks and want to combine them into a parlay, the odds are solid. The positive odds from the Friermuth pick, as well as the contrast picks of taking the same teams’ passing touchdowns and rushing yards, give this 3-leg parlay a nice boost.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at BettingApps.com, covering the latest sportsbook news, app reviews, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. For the rest of the season, he will provide weekly analysis, predictions, and updates to help readers make smarter bets and stay ahead of the game.
