Chet’s Fantasy Football Start Em, Sit Em

Chet’s Fantasy Football: Start Em, Sit Em: Week 8

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Published Oct. 24, 2019.


Start/sit questions are never as black and white as start/sit articles make them out to be, but below I have some players I am eagerly hoping to start and some I’d rather not.

Quarterbacks

Start

Josh Allen, Bills
Allen has dipped below 16 fantasy points just once, and that was against the Patriots. This week, he faces an Eagles secondary that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Eagles are slightly favored, and they have a strong run defense, which should keep Allen throwing the ball.

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
The Titans are home dogs to the Buccaneers, who are also No. 1 in rush defense DVOA, which should set Tannehill up to throw more than usual. The Bucs have also allowed the most passing attempts and passing yards per game due to their decent offense and tough run defense. Tannehill also looked good in his last start, giving us some hope this week in a better matchup.

Sit

Philip Rivers, Chargers
Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints rolled over the Bears, but the Chargers aren’t a team that can roll over anyone at the moment. The over/under for this game is the lowest this week, and the Chargers are four-point underdogs with an implied 19.5-point total. Rivers should have trouble in Chicago.

Kyle Allen, Panthers
Allen has played solid football, but no defense has been better than the 49ers at getting to the quarterback this year, with a 11.5 percent adjusted sack rate. I expect Allen won’t know what hit him this week.

Running Backs

Start

Jamaal Williams, Packers
Aaron Jones is a must-start against a bad Kansas City run defense, but so is Williams. Both backs should see a decent amount of work against a team that ranks last in yards allowed per carry and fourth in total yards allowed to running backs. And with Matt Moore at quarterback, there’s a good chance the Packers take an early lead and are able to run more in garbage time.

Darrell Henderson, Rams
Stop trying to make Henderson happen! I can do what I want! You’re not my mom! Darrell Henderson is going to blow up some game, and this one is probably his best chance so far, as the Bengals allow the most fantasy points per touch to opposing backs and Malcolm Brown is iffy to play once again. With Brown out last week, Henderson saw 12 touches and 34 percent of the snaps, which is enough for me to play him as a flex against the Bengals.



Sit

Melvin Gordon, Chargers
Until we see the Chargers’ offensive line open up some holes for Gordon, I’ll be wary of starting him, as Austin Ekeler will continue to be a big part of the passing game, where I expect a Chargers running back to have the most luck.

Joe Mixon, Bengals
Until the Bengals get a new offensive line or start throwing the ball to Mixon, he’s a sit and frankly, a drop in some leagues.



Wide Receivers

Start

Kenny Stills, Texans
Stills saw over 90 percent of the snaps with Will Fuller out and caught 4-of-5 targets for 105 yards last week against the Colts. This week, Stills will face an Oakland defense that was just eviscerated by Aaron Rodgers and has given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Sutton is fairly obvious with Emmanuel Sanders in San Francisco now, but this matchup is also good in a one-on-one sense as Sutton will face Pierre Desir for the majority of his snaps and Desir has a PFF grade of 48, which ranks him near the bottom in production.





Sit

Alshon Jeffery, Eagles
The Bills have given up two touchdowns to wide receivers through six games and have yet to allow one to hit 100 yards. They haven’t faced a plethora of studs, but they rank fifth in pass defense DVOA while Jeffery hasn’t topped 76 yards this season. He has been touchdown dependent in fantasy, and a touchdown will be hard to come by against the Bills.

Jarvis Landry, Browns
The Browns are going to have trouble throwing the ball against the Patriots’ stout pass defense, so both Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. get a down tick in their projections, but I still can’t sit Beckham due to his explosiveness while I worry about Landry, who will face Jonathan Jones. Jones currently has graded out as the second-best defensive back in the league, with an 88.5 rating by PFF, allowing a 41 percent catch percentage and just .74 yards per route covered.

Tight Ends

Start

Jonnu Smith, Titans
Delanie Walker didn’t practice on Wednesday and played only five snaps last week before leaving with an ankle injury. Smith caught all three of his targets for 64 yards from Ryan Tannehill, and if Smith gets the start this week against Tampa Bay, he’ll make for a strong start, as the Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year.

Darren Fells, Texans
When Kenny Stills was out for two weeks, we saw Fells get a nice uptick in work, which paid off nicely as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns in those two games. Those aren’t huge usage numbers, but the Raiders are weak against tight ends, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position and Fells has touchdown upside with DeShaun Watson leading the way.

Sit

After the top tight ends who are must-starts, there aren’t any who are worth recommending you sit because it would be too obvious.

Check out Weekly NFL Fantasy Football Rankings for more analysis





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