This Thursday Night Football matchup is one of the most interesting and important of the season as the Cowboys (6-5-1) travel to Detroit to take on the Lions (7-5). We shift back to one game this week after an entertaining slate of Thanksgiving games, in which both of these teams played.
Playoff implications are the big storyline of the game. Both of these teams are looking unlikely to win their divisions, but are fighting for positioning in the wildcard race. The NFC is as competitive as ever, and this could certainly decide if one of these teams makes it to the playoffs or not.
As far as Vegas is predicting, Detroit opens as a 3-point favorite, with the game total at 54.5 points. It’s set to be a close, high-scoring game, according to all the betting options in Michigan, which gives us a great opportunity to hit on some player props.
First things first, I’ll give my read on the game (7-1 ATS on this series). After that, we’ll dig into the prop spots I’m taking a swing at for TNF.
Game Pick: Cowboys +3.0
The Cowboys are clearly the team with more momentum entering this game. The Lions have now lost two of their last three games, while the Cowboys are riding a three-game win streak. Since Dan Campbell has started calling the plays, the offense hasn’t looked right. He is too reliant on Gibbs breaking long touchdown runs, and Dallas has improved their run defense since adding Quinnen Williams. Dallas has the offense to keep up with anyone, and should be able to at least keep this game close.
George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer (+120)
This is the kind of bet that might haunt me all season, because I can never seem to pick between CeeDee and Pickens at the right time. By that logic, I’m due. I was leaning toward a CeeDee touchdown, which of course means I should probably take Pickens instead. All jokes aside, Pickens has been the more consistent and reliable red-zone target for Dallas this year, and he’s playing like a true WR1. The Lions’ secondary is absolutely attackable, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if both of these guys end up in the end zone on Thursday.
Javonte Williams Under 68.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
With the total sitting in the mid-50s, this matchup points toward a shootout. If Dallas is forced into an up-tempo, high-scoring script, it’s hard to imagine a heavy rushing workload for Williams. The Lions aren’t dominant defensively, but they are top-five in yards per carry allowed, which only adds to the likelihood that Dallas leans on the passing game. That means Williams probably needs to make his impact as a receiver and, at times, in pass protection against a Detroit front that ranks top-10 in sacks.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 4.5 Receptions (-132)
With Amon-Ra St. Brown sidelined, the Lions suddenly look thin at receiver. Jameson Williams flashed real WR1 ability after St. Brown went down last week, but he can’t carry the entire passing game on his own. With both St. Brown and Sam LaPorta out, Jahmyr Gibbs essentially becomes Detroit’s No. 2 receiving option, and they’re going to need him heavily involved. Getting Gibbs the ball in space is their best path to generating reliable offense and keeping this game competitive.
Total Odds on 3-leg SGP: +635
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Running total:
Game Picks ATS: 7-1
Player Props: 6-6
Last Week’s Results:
Lions -2.5 ❌
Cowboys +3.5 ✅
Bengals +7 ✅
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at BettingApps.com, covering the latest sportsbook news, app reviews, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. For the rest of the season, he will provide weekly analysis, predictions, and updates to help readers make smarter bets and stay ahead of the game.
