This Thursday Night Football game is an NFC South rematch: the Bucs (7–6) host the Falcons (4–9) at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs won the first matchup in week 1 in a close 23-20 game.
The spotlight is on Tampa Bay, with a loss to the New Orleans Saints last week, the Bucs are trying to hold onto or reclaim control of the division. The Falcons, meanwhile, have been eliminated from playoff contention but could play spoiler and potentially shake up the NFC South standings.
From what we see from the top betting apps, Tampa Bay is favored by about 4 to 5 points, with the game total around 44.5, not a blow-out line, but enough to suggest an edge for the Bucs at home.
We should expect a gritty, physical game. Atlanta’s offense has sputtered lately, and they’ll be missing key starters. The Bucs, though banged up themselves, could be getting reinforcements (notably Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are possibly returning for this game).
With those pieces in mind, here’s how I see this playing out, and what I’m eyeing for props and bets.
Game Pick: Bucs -4.5
After a surprising loss last week, Tampa Bay enters this matchup needing a real reset. The team hasn’t looked like the version that started 5-1 in over a month, mostly due to injuries, but help is finally on the way with several key players set to return. That should give the Bucs a boost against an Atlanta team that hasn’t been competitive for most of the season. With no tanking incentive but little to play for, the Falcons haven’t shown much life, making this a strong bounce-back opportunity for Tampa Bay. I think they win convincingly, grabbing some momentum back in the NFC South race.
Rachaad White Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Last week, White carried the ball 11 times for 53 yards. I’m not sure why his projected line would be so low this week, considering he got just 4 fewer carries than starter Bucky Irving. I think the Bucs will be playing with a lead for most of this game, which would lean the game script towards running the ball. With Bucky just a few weeks removed from an injury that kept him out for an extended period, I think we will see a pretty even split between the two backs again. Especially if Tristan Wirfs returns, the Bucs’ rushing attack should get plenty of action.
Darnell Mooney Over 2.5 Receptions (-129)
The passing attack for the Falcons has been a disaster as of late, with Kirk Cousins looking visibly rusty after being on the bench for most of the season. He has been heavily favoring his running backs and tight end, but Darnell Mooney is still the best receiver on the team as Drake London remains sidelined with an injury. With a line this low, it’s hard to pass up. All it takes is a few screens or check-downs to clear 2.5 receptions, and the Falcons will likely be throwing a lot this game. If they want to generate any offense, the Falcons will need to utilize the last solid receiver they have active.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-142)
After being included in MVP talks early in the season, Mayfield has slowed way down. However, Baker may be getting a few huge targets back this week. With a fully healthy receiving room of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and more, this Bucs offense is scary for any defense. The Falcons’ defense has given up at just over 24 points a game, and I would bet that the Bucs will go above that average this week. I expect Baker to lead the team downfield for a couple of quick touchdowns as a statement after a terrible loss last weekend.
Total Odds on 3-leg SGP: +410
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Running total:
Game Picks ATS: 7-2
Player Props: 8-7
Last Week’s Results:
Cowboys +3.0 ❌
George Pickens Anytime TD Scorer ❌
Javonte Williams U 68.5 Rushing Yards ✅
Jahmyr Gibbs O 4.5 Receptions ✅
By Jake Koehler
Jake is a sports betting writer at BettingApps.com, covering the latest sportsbook news, app reviews, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. For the rest of the season, he will provide weekly analysis, predictions, and updates to help readers make smarter bets and stay ahead of the game.
