2018 NFL Draft Second-Day Values: Offense
2018 NFL Draft Day 2 Values: Offense | 2018 NFL Draft Day 2 Values: Defense
2018 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Offense | 2018 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Defense
2018 NFL Draft Day-Three Sleepers
Published April 19, 2018.
By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell
In the recent weeks, there have been a lot of questions about who are my value picks in the 2018 NFL Draft class. A value or sleeper prospect is basically a player who gets drafted after the first round and proves to be a steal. The second day of the 2018 NFL Draft is where the men are separated from the boys among NFL general managers. All the players have strengths and flaws, but the top evaluators find future starters and team building blocks on Day 2. Every year, I pick my favorite Second-Day value. In order to hold myself more accountable, I started putting in a runner-up in case the first choice is a surprise first-round pick. If a player goes in Round 1, I should not get credit calling him a second-day value pick if he pans out. Here is my track record over the last decade going back to my time with Pewter Report.
2008: Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech
2009: Mike Wallace, WR, Ole Miss
2010: Brian Price, DT, UCLA & Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
2011: Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia
2012: Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati
2013: Larry Warford, G, Kentucky
2014: Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M, & Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State
2016: Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame & Sheldon Day, DT, Notre Dame
2017: Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama (runner-up: Akhello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado)
2018: Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech (runner-up: Arden Key, DE, LSU)
My choice this year came down to Virginia Tech safety Terrell Edmunds, LSU defensive end Arden Key and Mississippi State offensive tackle Martinas Rankin. I think Rankin is being slept on as well, but I don’t think he’s as dynamic as Edmunds or Key. Thus, he finishes in third place.
Key is a first-rounder on the field, and the only reason he slips to Day 2 is because of the off-the-field concerns. With those issues being that bad, I can’t make him my pick of the year. However, he has big-time ability, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is a Justin Houston-like steal for some team.
I think Edmunds is an ideal strong safety for the NFL. The guy plays like his hair is on fire. He can play free safety or strong safety, cover and run with receivers one on one, and is a tough run defender. Edmunds has gone under the radar because of his brother, Tremaine Edmunds, being a top-10 talent, but I think Terrell Edmunds is going to be a better pro than a lot of the players who become first-round picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. Thus, he’s my top second-day value pick this year.
Overall, this list is very strong with one exception, Brian Price. Unfortunately, family tragedies robbed him of being able to put an NFL career together. Flowers has had a Pro Bowl career. Wallace has been a good pro receiver and helped get the Steelers to a Super Bowl. Houston is a pass-rushing terror for the Chiefs, while Wolfe has turned into a very good pro for the Broncos. Warford is one of the better guards in the NFL. He has been better than top-10 picks at guard in the same draft class, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper. Hill flashed as a rookie before becoming a big disappointment. I think he could right his career in New England, but right now, that is looking like a mistaken evaluation on my part.
Two years ago, I went with Cedric Ogbuehi and named Ronald Darby as my backup. Since Ogbuehi was selected in the first round, he doesn’t count for the long-term track record, but that would be a miss on my part. On the flip side, Darby has played really well for Buffalo in his first two years and looks like he’ll have a very good NFL career. At this point, it is too early to render any judgement on the 2016 and 2017 players, although 2016 is not looking very good. My 2017 choice is looking good as Everett contributed well as a rookie while Witherspoon has stud potential.
Here is a breakdown of a top second-day-value prospect at each position for the 2018 draft class. All the players will be prospects who are likely going on the second day of the 2018 NFL Draft. If a player is a possible late first-round pick, I generally don’t include them as an option.
Luke Falk, QB, Washington State Of the non-first-round quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft, I think Falk has the most potential to surprise as a pro. He could be a mid-round pick, and I think he has the potential to be the next Kirk Cousins.
Falk possesses a lot of good traits that hard to find. His best and most impressive trait is his accuracy. Falk is an accurate passer who has very good ball placement. He leads receivers downfield and throws them open with where he locates his passes. Falk has above-average arm strength and throws good touch passes. He also has pocket presence while throwing with good timing and anticipation. In the red zone, Falk can be deadly with his accuracy and his ability to locate the football. He is a good rhythm passer who would be a nice fit in a West Coast offense. He needs to improve his eyes and working through progressions rather than locking on to one receiver or one side of the field, but he is a confident quarterback who I think he could be an overachiever in the NFL.
2017: Pat Mahomes
2016: Christian Hackenberg
2015: Garrett Grayson
2014: Teddy Bridgewater
Ronald Jones, RB, USC I had Alvin Kamara here a year ago, and that turned out to be spot on, as he set the league on fire as a rookie. Of the college backs who will go on Day 2 this year, I think Jones has the most potential to have an impact like Kamara. The 6-foot, 200-pound Jones has excellent first-step quickness to fire out of the backfield. With his explosion, Jones gets to the second level in a blur and looks to get North-South as quickly as possible. As a junior, Jones ran with more physicality to run through tackles and was a more decisive runner. The results were excellent, making the fast back all the more dangerous. When he gets into the open field, Jones is tough for defenders to catch as he has deep speed to take carries to the house. He also has receiving ability and is a mismatch target in the passing game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones makes a quick impact and ends up being an excellent second-day value.
2017: Alvin Kamara
2016: C.J. Prosise
2015: T.J. Yeldon
2014: Jeremy Hill
Ian Thomas, TE, Indiana This was a tough decision because the only tight end who really excites me in this year’s draft is South Carolina’s Hayden Hurst and he could easily be a first-round pick. Of the tight ends who will could go on the second day, I saw a lot of flaws with some of the highly discussed players. Dallas Goedert struggles to separate and even did at his low level of competition. He reminds me of Cowboys bust Gavin Escobar. Mike Gesicki is an awful blocker, and he reminds me of the disappointing Colby Fleener. Thomas on the other hand has serious athleticism as a receiver and also a thick build to develop into a contributor as a blocker. He was capable of producing a lot more than he did in college. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas is a nice Day 2 value who ends up being a solid pro.
2017: Gerald Everett
2016: Austin Hooper
2015: Clive Walford
2014: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame If St. Brown could have come out a year ago, he probably would have been a late first-round pick and the fourth receiver selected. However, he had to go back to Notre Dame and was cursed with one of the worst quarterbacks in college football. The inability to pass the ball competently masked what St. Brown can do as a receiver. The 6-foot-5, 214-pounder is a very good route runner who is an excellent run-after-the-catch receiver. He can wall off defenders with his big frame and is a red-zone threat. While he is quicker than he is fast, St. Brown is not slow, and he illustrated his speed at the combine with a 4.48-second time in the 40-yard dash. St. Brown has an excellent skill set with mismatch potential in the NFL. If he lands with a good quarterback in a passing offense, I think he could become a legit No. 1 receiver. In my opinion, St. Brown could be one of the steals of second day of the 2018 NFL Draft.
2017: JuJu Smith-Schuster
2016: Tyler Boyd
2015: Justin Hardy
2014: Jared Abbrederis
Braden Smith, G, Auburn Smith is an offensive lineman who has been slept on by the national media. In speaking with sources at a handful of teams, they all thought Smith was a solid second-day pick and deserving of going in the Round 2 of the 2018 NFL Draft. The 6-foot-6, 315-pounder has enough strength to him to play in gap or inside zone scheme. He is a solid well-rounded blocker who is steady in pass protection with the athleticism to handle speed and the base to take on power. Once Smith gets his hands on defenders, he stalls them out. Smith isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s going to help his pro team and become a solid starter.
Martinas Rankin, OT, Mississippi State Rankin is another offensive lineman who is being slept on. In pass protection, Rankin is good at sustaining blocks. While he needs to get stronger in the upper body and his base, he does have strong hands that help him to keep pass-rushers engaged and not let them break free. Rankin is a good athlete with quick feet and the ability to kick slide with speed rushers. In the ground game, Rankin is good to hit blocks in space and fire to the second level. He can occupy his defensive ends, but he isn’t a true bulldozer who blasts defenders off the line. There is only one negative to Rankin’s game, and that is a lack of strength. However, sources at multiple teams rave about his character and work ethic. So teams are confident that he will work hard in the weight room to fix that. I think Rankin will at the very least work his way into being a quality starter at guard, if not a steady left tackle.
2017: Dan Feeney
2016: Nick Martin and Le’Raven Clark
2015: Cedric Ogbuehi
2014: Antonio Richardson
2018 NFL Draft Day 2 Values: Offense | 2018 NFL Draft Day 2 Values: Defense
2018 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Offense | 2018 NFL Draft Potential Busts: Defense
2018 NFL Draft Day-Three Sleepers
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