2009 NFL Draft E-mails – May 13, 2008
I recently read your 2008 draft grade for the Tennessee Titans and there are a couple things I have heard about their draft.
For starters, the William Hayes pick. On a interview with Jeff Fisher on NFL. com, Jeff said that he recieved calls from other teams telling him that they would have taken him if the titans hadn’t. On the Chris Johnson pick: while I myself wanted the Titans to take a wide receiver with their 1st pick, I am not surprised they didn’t. Actually, although the pick might have been a little early, I liked this pick. There was a run on RB’s and especially there was a need for fast running backs. If the Titans didn’t take him in the 1st round, I doubt he would have been there in the second. The more and more I see Chris Johnson highlights, the more and more I like this pick (check them out if you havn’t seen any). The Titans are not a passing team, actually, they ran the ball more last year than any other team. And as a team that runs the ball so much, running back is a far bigger necessity. Lendale White is great for just barreling through defenders to get those 3rd and 3’s or so, but he is not a breakaway back. and the Titans desperately need one to compliment Lendale White.
Since they didn’t pass as often at all, wide reciever (although is still a crucial need) is less of a priority. The Titans were horrible in the red zone and this should help greatly (as would a tall reciever like James Hardy). Now I AM dissapointed that they didn’t try to move up for Limas Sweed when he was available in the second round. Besides that, 1st round WR’s are always extremely risky and moreover, they usually don’t have very great production as a rookie. But you can expect to see at least one 60+ yard screen to Chris Johnson in the upcoming season. The Titans got Alge Crumpler to help him (which a TE is almost more important to a scrambling QB than a WR), and they got Justin McCareins (who Yes, I know isn’t great at all). Chris Johns on is going to be playing WR quite a bit in the slot also to help Vince Young. As far as I am concerned, Chris Johnson is as much as a help, if not much greater of a help than any WR would have been in this draft. Also, The Titans were horrible in the return game, Johnson has great value in the Kick and Punt return game and I wouldn’t be surprised if he took a couple back to the house either.
I don’t mean to rant if thats what it sounds like because I love your website and all it does for the football fans. But, back to football, Lavelle Hawkins is a better reciever than a 4th rounder should be. One reason for this is because he was overshadowed by DeSean Jackson. With Craig Stevens, the Titans again show they are going to run a ton next year by drafting the best blocking TE in the draft. What the Titans really need to do is get a great WR somehow in free agency, or a trade. Like Anquan “The Quan” Boldin or another Stud. I hope you don’t th ink I’m just ranting. but I just wanted to tell you my opinion. I understand everything your saying, but I see it in a different way i guess.
My Response:
Jeff Fisher had to defend the Williams Hayes pick. Coaches seem to lie about that sort of stuff, so I don’t know if I can believe him if he said he got calls from other teams. Maybe he did; maybe he did and they were just humoring him; maybe he didn’t. We’ll never really know why they took someone who wasn’t on the official draft boards in the fourth round.
If the Titans really wanted a fast running back, they could have obtained Steve Slaton or Jamaal Charles in the third round. There was no excuse for taking yet another running back with a fast 40 (Chris Henry). It’s really unbelievable that they failed to address their biggest need until the fourth round. I’ve seen Chris Johnson play on a few occasions last year, and while it was hard to tell how good he was because he was surrounded by garbage, I didn’t get the feeling that he would be a bust. However, it seems like the Titans drafted him just because of his great 40 time. If you pull an Al Davis, you’re bound to fail.
I wouldn’t count on Alge Crumpler or Justin McCareins. McCareins is an abomination and wouldn’t make many NFL rosters. Crumpler, who was once great, has recently become a fat sloth who can’t catch anything. There’s a reason the Falcons didn’t think twice when they jettisoned him. From afar, it looks like Tennessee picked up garbage discarded by other teams this offseason.
Lavelle Hawkins wasn’t a bad pick in the fourth round, but he’s not a No. 1 receiver. The Titans need a No. 1 receiver (or at least a No. 1 1/2 receiver if that makes any sense). All they have are a bunch of No. 3s, if you can even call them that.
I’m a major fan of Vince Young’s. I defended him last year when his receivers dropped key passes every single week. I was hoping the front office would provide him with some better ammunition so everyone could finally see how talented he is. As you saw by my draft grade, I was disappointed with what they did.
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2009 NFL Draft E-mails – May 8, 2008
This is in response to your previous mailbag post on 4/8/08 about Jackson and Young.
You have completely mischaracterized the Vikings’ last three games of the season. Jackson had a bad game and a half. The second half of the Redskins game and the Broncos game were all Jackson led comeback attempts. They were making a comeback against the Redskins until the too many men penalty reversed the fumble, and Williamson ran out of bounds and came back in on his own on a comeback route. Don’t put the whole loss on Jackson when the team broke down after the too many men penalty. Jackson also had a great game against Denver, and had Williamson not dropped that bomb and Taylor not fumbled for a Touchback, your argument would look alot different. Jackson’s last game and a half had 3 passing TDs, no ints, 2 rushing TDs, and 2 2pt conversions, and both games went for losses. He also had Bobby Wade as a number one.
Vince Youngs last two games were awful. While both were wins he threw 1 pick, no TDs, no rushing TDs, and got hurt. Kerry Collins got to play against an already injured Colts team that didn’t have to play for anything.
You have skewed the data so much and your bias is very apparent. Its ok to say you don’t like him, but don’t try to provide bad numbers to prove that he is a bad QB. Pat Kirwan (someone who’s opinion is HIGHLY valued and respected) said on Sirius NFL radio yesterday that Tarvaris Jackson throws the most effective slant that he can remember seeing.
Watch the balls bounce off of Troy Williamson a couple of times and tell me he doesn’t throw a great deep ball. Watch him keep plays alive with his feet.
Like I said, its clear that you don’t like Jackson, but your assumption that most others share your sentiment has little basis in reality. MANY Vikings fans are more than comfortable with Jackson. You want to give him the hook so quickly, but are willing to give Vince Young and other QBs from that draft class more time. Check out the career numbers of the QBs from that draft class and tell me that the other QBs deserve more time and Jackson doesn’t.
Anyhow, keep up the good scouting. Just lay off Jackson a bit, give him a chance lol!
My Response:
I skewed the data as a response to some skewed data someone else sent me. I was trying to prove a point – that you can use stats to make someone look really good or really bad, such as the e-mailer using numbers to state Vince Young is worse than Tarvaris Jackson, which is a complete joke.
Jackson didn’t have a great game against Denver. Maybe a great game for him relatively, but it was very average for an NFL standard. He was also very sub par against the Redskins. Sure, he tried to lead a comeback, but that was against prevent defense. I wouldn’t put too much stock into it.
I wouldn’t call Vince Young’s last two games awful because he had a halftime lead against the Chargers despite the fact that his receivers were dropping balls like there was no tomorrow. Both Tennessee and Minneosta’s receivers sucked royally, but at least Jackson had Adrian Peterson in the backfield. That actually says a lot because every team Minnesota was playing down the stretch put forth maximum effort to stop Peterson. The fact that Jackson couldn’t deliver for the most part against eight men in the box would be a huge problem for me if I were a Viking fan.
If Jackson improves and wins a playoff game, I’ll admit I was wrong. But as of right now, I haven’t seen anything from Jackson that tells me he’ll be at least a decent quarterback.
This is now the second time I’ve written to you regarding Tarvaris Jackson, and my thoughts on him haven’t changed a bit. I completely agree with the previous e-mail by Fin. Vince Young and T-Jack had nearly identical stats, yet you continously rip on Tarvaris for being one of the “top 5 worst” quarterbacks in the league. I dont understand how you can love one, but hate the other. Fin was right again when he said that T-Jack has points where he does look horrible, but others where he looks like he could lead the team into the future.
Your response to Fin was good, until you look at the teams each quarterback had to play. Vince had the mighty Chiefs defense, followed by the even scarier Jets, and then the 3rd string Colts Defense to contend with the final 3 games of the season. Come on, 2 teams drafting top 6 and another who had nothing to play for? Nothing to be blown away by.
Tarvaris had to play the Bears on Monday Night, then the Redskins in another primetime game, and then the Broncos. Now i know that the Bears and Broncos are nothing special, but T Jack was still a young qb who hadnt experienced the pressure of primetime, mixed with playoff aspirations. On top of being under unknown pressure, he had to play the hottest team in the NFL in the Redskins, and then had Troy Williamson basically lose the game on one play in Denver. He still almost won the game by himself against the Broncs.
I guarantee that the stats between Tarvaris and Vince will be similar once again, and the Vikings will make it farther into the playoffs, if T Jack plays the majority of the season. And since Vince was the 3rd overall pick, and Tarvaris the last pick of the 2nd round in the same draft. I think you need to give him some more credit for playing at the same or higher level than your boy Vince.
My Response:
I think it’s a huge mistake to compare Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson.
Vince Young’s receivers are terrible. They drop numerous passes every single week. It’s a joke. I’m convinced Tennessee’s front office is making it its mission to see Young fail. They dropped tons of passes in the playoff game – which you forgot to mention while talking about Young’s final three games. If Young had competent wideouts, he would have made it to the second round. Now, you may say Minnesota’s wideouts sucked as well, and I couldn’t argue with you. But Jackson has Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Opposing defenses were putting eight and nine men in the box toward the end of the season, and Jackson still couldn’t get the job done against two horrible teams and one mediocre squad.
I don’t think you can blindly put up stats and say “Quarterback A is at least as good as Quarterback B because the numbers match up.” It doesn’t work that way. Jackson had a much better supporting cast and played in a much weaker conference.
If Tarvaris Jackson chokes in the spotlight – Vince Young was awesome twice on Monday night football and played well in the playoff game (had a lead on San Diego despite numerous drops) – what does that say about his chances in the postseason, assuming he even makes it? It could be a disaster. Believe me, the sharp bettors know what they’re doing. If they were willing to throw down five figures each just because of a team’s quarterback, he must be one of the worst the league has to offer. And I thought this even before I heard they were planning to make that sort of move.
What the Vikings need is a veteran quarterback who doesn’t choke when the season’s on the line. Trading for Sage Rosenfels (a third-rounder which could become a second if incentives are met) could be a good idea. I hope they look into it because I’d hate to see a Super Bowl contender’s chances get flushed down the toilet because of a pretty bad quarterback.
2009 NFL Draft E-mails – May 7, 2008
Couple of things to say…
1- Please Please Please stop saying Viking fans will gladly don green and gold if.. watever you say next, usaully about tavaris jackson, which brings me to my second point
2. Person A- 9 throwing Tds,3 Rushing Tds, 17 interceptions 71.0 Rating
Person B- 9 Throwing Tds,3 Rushing Tds, 12 Interceptions 70.8 Rating
A is Vince Young
B is T-Jack
The numbers are nearly identical.. so why scrutinize Tavaris. He was 8-4 as a starter which im sure you already knew and has barely played 16 games. So this up coming season is basically his second. Be patient, he has the tools and hes learning. I agree at times he looks oblivious, especially against the bears on Monday night last season, but hes looked excellent at other times, last game of the season against the broncos. I livein New York soi have to compare him to Eli. It seems as if ELi was given an eternity to prove himself and he didn’t even start playing well until the playoffs. If you saw the vikings giants game this year you know how bad Eli can look.
Welp that’s pretty much it. Main Point give Jackson at least this year before you condem him as a failure.
My Response:
Nice stats, but I’ll throw this one at you:
Person A- 3-0, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble, 63.4% completion in Weeks 15-17
Person B – 1-2, 3 TDs, 5 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 58.4% completion in Weeks 15-17
A is Young; B is Jackson.
When opposing teams started loading up against the run to stop Adrian Peterson and the season was on the line, Jackson folded terribly. The Vikings may make the playoffs, but once they get there, they’re done. Think the Ravens in the earlier part of this decade, or even the Dolphins with Jay Fiedler.
I have a friend who works at the Mirage, and he told me that the books were terrified at the prospect of Minnesota making the playoffs because they knew the sharp bettors were going to bet against them and make tons of money.
I find myself less interested in your site the more you bash the Titans. I know that as a Titans fan I probably look at their moves with a glass half full mentality, rather than being pessimistic, but I think you go way over the top with the doom and gloom prognosticating of their future.
I know it’s probably tough for you to keep up with all 32 teams and have a good understanding for what the front office/coaching staff is thinking. It’s tough enough for me to keep up with the AFC South. But your take on the Titans is sadly uninformed/lacking in thought, etc. You do understand that Eric Moulds will not be a Titan this year, and Brandon Jones is our third or fourth receiver, right? Mike Williams is, like, eighth on the depthchart. If you want to bash the Titans receivers, you should bash Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Alge Crumpler, and Lavelle Hawkins. Those are going to be our primary receiving options this year. Now, I understand that the aforementioned group is not Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, etc., but they’re not THAT bad. As for the runningbacks, I think we’re now satisfied with what we have: LenDale White (the workhorse), Chris Henry (the big, athletic, fast backup) and Chris Johnson (the flashy Reggie Bush/Charlie Garner type).
Take my opinion with a grain of salt (as I’m sure you will), but I think the Titans offense will really make a significant jump this year now that Heimerdinger is back and Vince is a year wiser. Look for the Titans to employ a lot of three and four wide formations out of the shotgun with Chris Johnson in the backfield. We’re going to open it up this year and let Vince be Vince. Just wait and see 🙂
My Response:
I was just joking around with Brandon Jones, Mike Williams and Eric Moulds, though Jeff Fisher did say he has hope for Williams during the draft.
I’m not a fan of Tennessee’s receivers. Alge Crumpler was terrible in Atlanta. There’s a reason they cut him. Justin Gage is very mediocre. Roydell Williams improved, but he’s not a No. 1. Neither is Lavelle Hawkins.
I just don’t get what the Titans are doing. They are either going out of their way to not provide Young with weapons, or their scouting department sucks. I want Young to succeed because I’m tired of defending him, only to watch his receivers drop numerous passes every single week.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails – April 23, 2008
Why the sour grapes man?
I as well as almost every other dolphin fan am overjoyed tonight at the signing of Jake Long.
As much as we want to rush the QB we have Taylor (Probly) and Porter which are fine for this year.
I also dont see us taking a pass rushing OLB when our interior linebackers are Torbor and Crowder. IF anything in your latest mock i would probly pencil in Dan Conner as the LB we would take
I’m sorry but Curtis Lofton is not a priority when we have T.Daniels and W.Allen as our CB’s. I personally think we should take either nicks and shift him to guard, Or we take whoever is left between Tracy porter and Antoine Cason with pick 32.
As a dolphin fan we know we wont be contending for at least this year and maybe next, but we are finally making sound decisions in the draft.by setting up our oline for the future.This is imperative to get a true evaluation of John Beck and to our running game.
I don’t think we should pick an OLB this year, Hey i know Taylor is old,but we have so many holes this year we could wait a year to address this position.
It just seemed like this latest mock draft update, you are bothered by the draft not going as in your mock,When in reality it was a move we had to make. It surprised me a little to see such a negative write about this guy.
Just some quick facts regarding Jake Longs supposed lack of quickness compared to Joe Thomas..
Jake Long
40 yard:5.17
bench:37
3 cone drill:7.44
B Jump: 8.06
20 Yard Shuttle:4.73
Joe Thomas
40 yard:4.93
Bench: 38
3 cone drill:7.95
20 yard Shuttle:4.88
I could really care less how fast a LT runs a 40 to me it has to do more with quickness and the 3 cone drills,Broad Jump and 20 yard shuttle seem more important.
My Response:
I know most Dolphin fans are pretty happy with the pick. I just don’t agree with it. No sour grapes – I’ve been saying for the past two months that I think drafting Jake Long No.1 overall is a mistake.
The reason I didn’t have the Dolphins go corner atop the second round is because I thought that both Curtis Lofton and Dan Connor were higher-rated prospects than Tracy Porter and Justin King. Reggie Torbor is an even worse signing than Joey Porter; Torbor was nothing more than a backup with the Giants, so I don’t see why anyone would expect him to play well as a starter.
And speaking of Porter, I don’t think the Dolphins are even close to being fine at DE/OLB… Porter has always been overrated, as he was the product of the system in Pittsburgh. I think if you talk to any Steelers fan – and I know quite a few being from Pennsylvania – they’ll tell you that he’s extremely overrated. He and Jason Taylor are both over the hill and won’t be much of a factor next year.
When I talk about athleticism and agility with Joe Thomas as opposed to Jake Long, I’m just saying what I’ve seen in actual games; not the numbers they put up at the combine. Jake Long is going to be an incredible right tackle in this league, and because the Dolphins plan on running the ball a lot, that bodes well for them (assuming Ronnie Brown can actually stay healthy for a change.) But I just don’t see how drafting a right tackle No. 1 overall is a good move when you can obtain a really good one atop Round 2, when at the same time, a dynamic pass-rushing hybrid linebacker won’t be available there.
I’ll be updating my mock every day until the draft, and I’ll be adding a seventh round soon.
s Thanks for the e-mail… Hopefully I’m wrong about Jake Long because I like it when the classic franchises are competitive. I’m just voicing my opinion on why I wouldn’t have made Jake Long the top pick.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails – April 18, 2008
Hey Walt, although I understand your point on my LSU’s Glen Dorsey. If he can get you a championship, isn’t it worth a career that lasts only 8-9 years? Also everything that I’ve heard is that he passed all physical exams.-Jonathan Meyer
My Response:
I see your point, but who’s to say that another player in the top five won’t get you a championship, or multiple championships in a short span? And I’m not convinced Glenn Dorsey can even last eight years. I hope he does, but he’s way too much of an injury risk to be taken in the top five. He will be chosen top five; I just wouldn’t pull the trigger if I were an NFL GM. I know Dorsey passed all the exams, but most injury-prone players do – just look at Courtney Brown.
With the saints signing Arron Glenn and the possibilities of us drafting Dominique Rodgers Cromartie or Leodis McKelvin. Who do you see as day one starters out of. Randall Gay, Mike McKenzie ( i think he will be injured) Jason David. Jason Craft Arron Glenn or a rookie.
My Response:
I think the Saints hold off on a corner until Round 2, unless they can’t get Sedrick Ellis or Keith Rivers. The starters on opening day will be Mike McKenzie and Randall Gay, but if McKenzie’s injured, I believe it will be Gay and Jason David. It’s hard for any rookie corner to start right away.
I’ve been looking at to many mock drafts to see what other people think my Colts are going to do. BS I say they don’t know nothing! I’d love a super DE for the Colts but at #59 its not going to happen. I say RB Matt Forte’ would be a smart choice, we did much better with TWO fresh RB’S. But whats really eating at me is what is New England going to do????
Trade down maybe, DE could be Derrick Harvey assuming C.Long and V. Gholston are gone. But what scares me about the Pats is if they get smart and take Jonathan Stewart
THEN it would be real hard to get their offense off the field. Don’t think I’m RB crazy because I’m not, Defense wins Championships. The Pats did pretty good the last time they had a big power back.
My Response:
The Colts can get a pretty good player like Cliff Avril or Early Doucet in the second round. This is a really deep draft. I don’t think a running back is in the cards; Kenton Keith played well in relief of Joseph Addai.
Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have NEVER drafted a linebacker higher than the fifth round. That could change this year, but I’m betting that it won’t. I currently have them taking Branden Albert; Stephen Neal is coming off two injuries, he turns 32 in October and his contract expires after this year. Albert makes a lot of sense in that spot.
At the 10th spot, I love the Saints taking Kieth Rivers, but personally I would pick him as a last resort. The Vilma and Morgan pick-ups were huge high risk, high-reward pick-ups, not giving us a huge playmaker but giving us a much better corps then last year. If the Saints can’t secure the top two DTs or the top two DBs without trading up, then why not trade back get an extra pick or player and add depth where needed. (I hear the Eagles where shopping Sheppard and swapping first rounders because they wanted to secure an OT and New Orleans was a target.) With the 19th pick take someone like Balmer, although I admit it may be a reach. What is your take?
My Response:
I really liked the Jonathan Vilma pick-up, but I wouldn’t count on Dan Morgan. If the Saints think he’ll be a big contributor this season they’re fooling themselves. He’s missed 28 games the past two years, so there’s no guarantee that he even makes the team.
I agree with your premise though… Defensive tackle should be an early priority for the Saints. If they can’t get Sedrick Ellis, I’m all for trading down. Lito Sheppard would look great in a Saints uniform. Kentwan Balmer is a slight reach at No. 19, but the Saints could trade down again, perhaps with the Jaguars, who might want to get their hands on Phillip Merling. Balmer wouldn’t be a reach there.
But if New Orleans can’t trade, I don’t see anything wrong with taking Keith Rivers. I like Rivers more than most people. He’s a very smart and instinctive linebacker, and he’s always in the right place at the right time.
I think some of your picks are starting to go too far out on a limb. I think the Brandon Albert prediction is bold but not with NE�s current first round position. If they trade, down, I think you might be right on. Sam Baker and Chilo Rachal might fit the bill for them in a later round though.
My Response:
While I agree with your take on Duane Brown and Carl Nicks – I’ll fix that in my next update – Branden Albert is definitely an option for the Patriots at No. 7. It makes sense as far as their needs are concerned, and it also coincides with Bill Belichick’s draft history. Some people actually have Albert going fifth, so I don’t see why seventh is a problem. Also – and this sucks – I got an e-mail today from someone who pointed out that Mike Mayock also has Albert going seventh. I was disappointed because I thought I was the first to think of that.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails – April 14, 2008
Pro Football Talk says Vernon Gholston could be this year’s Mike Mamula. What do you think?
My Response:
Any prospect who has a great combine and Pro Day will undoubtedly be compared to Mike Mamula.
The Mamula flop is vastly overrated because people don’t bother to check out the facts. In his first five seasons, Mamula had 31.5 sacks. Not terrible; but not great by any means. Mamula also struggled against the run. However, what’s overlooked by many is that Mamula was only 250 pounds. The Eagles, who traded up to get him, ran a 4-3. I’m not employed by any team in this league, but even I know that placing a 250-pound end in the 4-3 and expecting him to stop the run is completely idiotic. Mamula was a better fit for the 3-4. If he had played in that sort of scheme and remained injury-free, he probably would have had at least a decent career.
This just goes to show you how important it is to factor in scheme when you’re drafting or signing players. The Saints found that out the hard way when they paid tons of cash to Jason David.
Gholston’s in 260s, so he’s a better fit in the 4-3 than Mamula was. However, I feel that Gholston would maximize his talent in the 3-4. The Rams are a perfect situation for him because they ran a 3-4 hybrid last year.
While your sight looks great, selecting a player like Campbell to go in Round 4 does not speak well to your football acumen. I am not a Miami fan, but I can tell you that I have seen him play from the sideline view and he is a monster. I don’t care about 40 times for a DL player, what’s important is the motor, size and work ethic. Campbell has all of the previous attributes and 6′ 8″ 286lb players don’t grow on trees. Some team will take him in the mid 1st round or early 2nd and he will play for 10 years in the NFL.
Like I said, you sight looks great, but your assessment of some players is really off in my opinion.
My Response:
I’ll probably move Calais Campbell into the third round soon, but I don’t think one of his strongest suits is his work ethic. He showed up to his Pro Day overweight and slow. He looked downright sluggish. If he’s this lazy now, how motivated can he possibly be with a 7-figure contract?
I once had Campbell in my Top 10, but he ruined his stock with a disappointing junior season and horrific pre-draft workouts. He could go in the second round, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him slip like LenDale White.
It’s bigbluestompincrew & I had a question, How can you not have the rams even considering Jake Long at the 2 spot? It would seem to me that there is some urgency on Linehan to win now & that team can’t win without a great offense, in it’s current version. Pace has went down the past 2 yrs, along with their hopes, and Long, while not the perfect prospect, is a huge upgrade to what they have at RT & a great insurance policy in case Pace goes down again (which i see as highly probable). I do think that VG will be in the mix, i mean he is a freak, but you didn’t even given J Long a footnote in your latest mock…
My Response:
I’ve had a blurb on Jake Long for months in the write-up of my second pick. There isn’t any specific reason as to why I removed him; I just don’t think he’ll be the pick there. The Rams definitely need an offensive tackle, but defensive end is a much more dire need because Orlando Pace is coming back, and there’s at least a chance they could have him for the year. At defensive end, no hope whatsoever. I have to believe St. Louis’ draft board looks like this: 1. Chris Long; 1a. Vernon Gholston; 3. Jake Long; 4. Glenn Dorsey.
At any rate, I’ll mention Jake Long in my next update.
Ummm . . . maybe the Patriots haven’t tried to replace Samuel, but Gay’s contributions don’t seem all that hard to replace (he was the nickel CB, not the starter), so I’d say some combination of Fernando Bryant, Lewis Webster, et al., should be able to do the trick.
[As I’ve said before, I have no friggin’ clue where Belichick is going with the pick. And just remember–just because he’s never used a high draft pick doesn’t mean he will never use one.]
My Response:
I’ll give you that Randall Gay won’t be hard to replace, but Fernando Bryant was cut by the Lions, while the soon-to-be 31-year-old Jason Webster has missed 23 games the past two years. Gay was only a nickel, but he was a pretty good nickel. Bryant and Webster, meanwhile, may not even make the team.
I know there’s a chance Bill Belichick takes Keith Rivers, but it just seems to go against his style. He’s chosen a linebacker earlier than the seventh round only once in New England.
In your NFL Alternate Mock Draft, You have Matt Ryan falling to 20. Atlanta has three 2nd round picks so don’t you think they would trade #34 and #48 to Minnesota or Houston for #17 or #18?
My Response:
I could definitely see the Falcons doing that if they really like Matt Ryan. It would be pretty weird to see them trade with the Texans again, but they do have he ammunition to make a move back into the bottom or the middle of the first round. Then again, they have tons of needs, so staying pat might not be such a bad idea.
I have a quick question. I�ve seen Harvey go as high as about 9 on some other sites. If he�s gone when my Vikings pick, what way do you think they�ll go?
My Response:
There are a couple of options. Phillip Merling would make a lot of sense. He’s not as great at pass rushing as Derrick Harvey is, but he can still do it well; I think that aspect of his game is underrated. If a top-tier offensive tackle is still on the board, he would definitely be a solid choice. Kenny Phillips also makes sense, as does Brian Brohm.
I’d probably go: 1. Right tackle; 2. Merling; 3. Brohm; 4. Phillips.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails – April 8, 2008
I wanted to talk about a trade scenario you present at #11 with the Bills. You say “Buffalo should be able to swap selections with a team like Philadelphia”. If that is the case who do you think Philly would want to move up to target? All the top prosects at that point are at OL, CB and DE.Which I would be happy with any of the three.
I guess GCobb has insinuated the Eagles trading Lito to move up to grab Williams and now the message boards are a buzz with the prospect. Most hate the move.
Also, I want to disagree with your Devin Thomas selection. As you stated, Philly is going “All IN” this year as McNabb, Dawkins, Runyan, Thomas and perhaps even Westbrook (bad knees) have 2 years tops with the team. It is well known in Philly that WR’s in Reids system have a lot to learn and I just don’t see a rookie WR making any significant contributions next year. I could perhaps see DeSean Jackson but only because he provides a desperately needed KR/PR guy who could perhaps learn enough to contribute by the playoffs as a home run hitter 3rd WR.
My Response:
The Eagles will have a lot of flexibility at No. 11. From what I’m hearing, they’re interested in moving up to secure an offensive tackle, so at No. 11, that could be Ryan Clady.
Going tackle at No. 11 would be good for the future, but it wouldn’t make sense for now… if they’re planning on playing McNabb and not Kolb, they’re saying they’re willing to win now. But getting a tackle sends mixed messages because that player, no matter how talented, probably won’t be able to contribute right away.
I think the Eagles need a larger receiver; Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown had trouble getting off the line of scrimmage vs. press coverage last year, so getting another small receiver wouldn’t be much help.
I have a problem with the Jets pick. You claim that Leodis McKelvin is the only option and the obvious choice. Ever heard of Matt Ryan? Why would you take McKelvin over Ryan? Make’s no sense to me. The Jets need a reliable QB. Only if he’s gone do you think about McKelvin but even then I would trade down to get Mendenhall. Please consider this as well. Chris Long first, Jake Long 2nd, Glenn Dorsey 3rd, Gholston 4th, and Dorsey 5th the obvious selection being: Darren McFadden.
My Response:
If it goes that way, McFadden will be the pick. But with Leodis McKelvin and Matt Ryan, the Jets will go with McKelvin. Forget the fact that the Jets have Kellen Clemens and do not plan on trading Chad Pennington; McKelvin is simply the better prospect. The only reason I have the Ravens drafting Ryan is because both McKelvin and DRC are off the board. It wouldn’t surprise me, however, to see Ryan fall out of the top 10.
Are you trying to say that Jason Taylor is worth a first round draft choice? If you are you might want to consider shutting down your website. 33 year old DE don’t fetch first round picks no matter who they are. I like JT but how he is worth more than a 4th round choice is beyond me.
My Response:
I agree with you. I wouldn’t trade Jason Taylor for a first-rounder either, but according to the Miami Herald, that’s what the Dolphins are looking for. I think they’ll ultimately settle for a second-rounder, which is what Jacksonville is reportedly offering. I wouldn’t spend a second-round pick to get him either, but that’s what’s going on right now.
I am a HUGE titans fan even though I live in Oregon. I was wondering what you think about the signings of Alge Crumpler, Jevon Kearse, and Justin McCareins. I was wondering how effective Kearse will be considering he was so ineffective in Philly. Also how good is Justin McCareins? I've never seen him play. Also what do you think will happen in the draft, because some people have the Titans drafting a defensive player.
My Response:
I plan on reviewing every signing of every team in my season previews, coming in the summer. But I have to say right now that I don't like any of Tennessee's signings. Maybe a new location is what Alge Crumpler needs, but he became a fat sloth toward the end of his stint in Atlanta. Jevon Kearse is done... he's just a depth rotation guy. And Justin McCareins was terrible in New York; he couldn't catch a cold.
I have the Titans going receiver-defensive tackle-defensive end in the first three rounds.
I disagree on the choice of C.Long as the clear cut number 1 pick. IMO J.Long is most logical choice considering we have literally no one at Right Tackle. I think that would be a clear cut indicator we want to take J.Long. IF not who are we going to line up in our G and T spot? I see you picked C. Nicks but he does not take up 2 spots on this depleted Oline.
In all honesty, most agree that we need to take 2 OL early in the draft just to give Beck,McCown, or Ryan a chance to succeed.
The 2nd point is we have Vonnie Holliday, Jason Ferguson, Matt Roth, Randy Starks, and Rod Wright, most agree he isn't going to make it as a 3-4 DE and it would be unfair to do so,
So that leaves moving him to LB where we have Joey Porter, the 30 million dollar man, and we have our aged leader JT at the other spot. Hmmm so how is it we are going to spend the Number 1 overall on a backup LB? I also forgot to mention we have Tarbor and Crowder on the interior ,although C.Long is not a ILB.
All I am saying is it would be a huge mistake to take C.Long When we have next to no one at RT and LG. I'd think M.Ryan makes more sense then taking C.Long and putting him on the bench, while Beck gets sacked a record number of times because we waited till round 2. Nicks and round 6 to find our RT and LG.
My Response:
You make a great point about Jake Long.
The thing is, I don't know if you can justify using a first-overall selection on a right tackle, especially when there are going to be a bunch of them available atop Round 2. And I don't think Chris Long will be a backup if he joins the Dolphins; Joey Porter struggled last year and Jason Taylor could be traded to Jacksonville.
That said, I believe Jake Long is a possibility for the No. 1 pick. To prove it, I created an Alternative Version of my 2008 NFL Mock Draft. Check it out if you have the time: 2008 NFL Mock Draft - Alternative Version.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 31, 2008
Don't know if you caught NFL live yesterday, but Todd McShay reported some interesting things. He said that scouts we're raving over Henne, and not Brohm, and even reported that a scout told him Henne may go between 13-19, and he Brohm was slipping. He also said that Gholston did not impress him at all, and that his going as high as St. Louis wouldn't happen, and taking him in the top six is a reach. I personally feel that Gholston in a lower prospect as Long because his technique seems less polished, but I don't know if the Jets taking him at six would be a reach. I therefore disagree with McShay. Just thought I would let you know about this and let you give your opinion on the matter if you wanted to.
My Response:
I think this is another instance of Todd McShay proving that he really has no clue what he's talking about. First, he's the first person I've heard who wasn't a fan of Brian Brohm's workout. Second, I don't know who told him Chad Henne is going 13-19, but I'm willing to bet it was his 14-year-old acne-laden brother or something. And I think he's just trying to generate some hype for himself by being a contrarian in regard to Vernon Gholston. I don't know if you saw Matt McGuire's article on why Todd McShay should be fired. If not, it's a good read.
Listen, you've got to stop picking the Running Back Mendenhall with the lions 1st pick - I'm telling you it aint gonna happen. No way, bet the farm. This is Marinelli's team, he is going to pick a defensive end with this pick - probably Derrick Harvey if he is still available, maybe Merling if they think his hernia will heal. Sedrick Ellis if he somehow falls at DT, but we both know thats not going to happen. A MLB like the kid from Tennesee (Mayo) or Lofton for round 2 if available. Marinelli has to have a DE and MLB to play his Tampa 2 defence, and he knows that the Lions have to be better this year, or his job is on the line. With those nude pictures of Mr. Ford in a see thru nighty w/ stockings and high heels, Millen will be safe forever. The only other Pick that the Lions will make if somehow the OT's Clady or Williams (especially Williams - they like him alot) falls. Everyone knows you can pick up a RB, which they really need, in rounds 3 or 4 this year. Trust me on this.
This is what makes the Lions situation so sad. Last year they could have gotten the OT Thomas. He'll be the best OLT in the NFL for years if he doesn't get hurt, and would've been the foundation on which to build this franchise on for years. Just horrible - the worst mistake of the Millen era. Its hard to be a Lions fan.
My Response:
While I agree with your premise - Rod Marinelli would gladly draft a defensive end over a running back - we've seen Matt Millen settle for speed and flash many times. Rashard Mendenhall is no ordinary running back; he's a strong runner who has a 4.37 40... which is something that could really entice Millen to draft Mendenhall if he's available. It's sad, but Millen's the one drafting; not Marinelli.
And yeah, not going for Joe Thomas was a terrible move in hindsight, though Jon Kitna still would have been sacked a lot because Mike Martz is an idiot.
As a mad Ravens fan living in Australia I have been looking at the draft history of Ozzie Newsome. I think he is one of the best GMs in the NFL but he doesn�t draft as well offensively as he does defensively. He has been responsible for studs like Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Chris McAlister and Terrell Suggs. However his offensive blunders include Kyle Boller and Travis Taylor. I think the ravens should give Troy Smith a year to see how he goes. He looks OK, certainly better than Boller and he could learn a lot of valuable things from McNair. I disagree with your selection of Matt Ryan simply because he is very good. I�ve seen some film of him and he throws to many picks and reminds me a bit of Joey Harrington. Sure he led a couple of come from behind wins but big deal. If the ravens go with a QB they go with Brian Brohm who tore up his pro day and actually had a really impressive season. The reason why Ryan is rated more highly is that he his team was successful whereas Brohm�s sucked.
I would much rather see a CB because our pass D sucked without Rolle and McAlister. I think Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin and DRC would all fit. I wouldn�t even mind seeing a DT like Sedrick Ellis or even Dorsey if he falls. My pick would be Ryan Clady. He is athletic and he could learn a lot from Ogden. I know we have Grubbs, Gaither and Yanda at OL who are young but I�m not sure about them. In conclusion I just don�t rate Ryan high enough. Or maybe I�m just scared that he will turn into Kyle Boller.
My Response:
I couldn't agree with you more. The Ravens have completely botched the offensive side of their draft, with the exception of Todd Heap and a few others. As for the quarterback picks, I think Brian Billick had some influence in them. It should be interesting how much input Newsome gets from Cam Cameron. I can see why drafting a quarterback would be scary for you, and if I were a Ravens fan, I wouldn't want it either. I don't rate Ryan highly either. But I just think that's what the Ravens are going to do if the top two corners (McKelvin and DRC) are unavailable at No. 8.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 28, 2008
I am a huge Cowboys fan and I like where your going with you�re the first 2 rounds. I really think we should go RB in 2nd round. I would maybe flip flop the 1st round with a CB going 1st. but it always depends who�s on the board, And of course if they get Pacman Jones. I am not to keen on Antoine Cason hopefully someone else will fall there. I�m good with Limas Sweed, but at that point it�s all who they like more. There are so many choices there, etc. Hardy, D. Jackson, Manningham, Doucet, Kelly, they pretty much have there pick of the litter with WR.
My Response:
The reason I have the Cowboys taking a receiver with their first pick is because Limas Sweed is better than any of the corners available. If, say, Aqib Talib falls to them at No. 22, and they don't get Pacman Jones, I think they could go that route. But as it stands, they'll be able to land Antoine Cason or Tracy Porter at No. 28. Sweed won't be there, though I guess you could argue that James Hardy might. Like you said, it all depends on whom they like more.
Hey, I've looked at your mock draft a number of times, and now that it's 5 rounds, I've noticed that there is one big name (in my opinion) that seems to have been left off of your draft board, as well as every one elses. Now, I'm not entirely sure the severity of his injury, because I missed that game, but I watched a number of Oregon's games and despite what the say about his throwing motion, I think Dennis Dixon is a very good QB that made some great plays on the field.
Now, I know everybody says that he's a system QB, but watching him play, I disagree and I really think that he has what it takes to at least be a back up in the league. I dont think the same is true of some of the QBs you have even going in the 4th round. Where do you see Dixon going and do you think he'll have any success?
My Response:
Dennis Dixon, as well as a few other quarterbacks were close to making the cut in the fifth round. My guess is that once the compensation picks are added on, he, along with Erik Ainge and Ryan O'Hara will be in the fifth round.
I liked Dixon as well; I had him going in the third round of my mock in October, but his devastating injury bumped him back two or three rounds. It's tough to say he'll ever be the same after he blew out his knee. It was really bad.
I think he goes at the end of the fifth or the beginning-middle of the sixth. It's a shame what happened to him.
I have questions regarding the Packers and Steelers. I have always been a die-hard Green Bay fan as well as a Steeler fan because the Steelers are my hometown team. My first question is do you think that it's possible that the Packers could trade up in the first round to take Dominique Rogers-Cromartie? They do have 2 second round picks and could trade their first round pick, one of their seconds, and possibly a player or another pick for say the Patriots pick or the Jets pick?
And secondly, do you really think that it's possible that Malcolm Kelly's stock could drop that much that the Steelers could get him with the 23rd pick? I would love that because it would give the Steelers another weapon on offense, even though he would probably be 3rd string behind Ward and Holmes. I don't like it though, because I feel that the Steelers would be getting away from what has been their bread and butter God knows how long, which was a power running game and a stalwart defense.
My Response:
I'm not sure if the Packers can move high enough to get Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie unless they're willing to give up a 2009 first-rounder. But if DRC slips out of the 10, which I don't think will happen, they have a chance. Trading up for someone is definitely a possibility because they don't have many needs and they have tons of picks.
It looks like Malcolm Kelly's stock has dropped enough that he'll be available at No. 23. If the Steelers can get him there, they should thank the inept GMs and scouts who pass up on him. I think he's far and away the best receiver in this class.
Why is Antoine Cason, DB, such a "great addition" to the Cowboy's defensive backfield when his isn't among your tier one CB's?
It is interesting how hard it has become (always has been?) to project players into the pros. Reggie Bush is a prime example. Looking forward to see how his third year turns out.
My Response:
Sure, Antoine Cason isn't in my top tier of cornerbacks, but he's still listed pretty high. And no one really knows how well these guys are going to play in the NFL. Cason projects to be a pretty decent player, but he may become great or terrible. I just think it's a good investment.
It's always been really hard to project players; if it was so easy, the guys who are getting paid six and seven figures in the front offices would always produce great draft classes... A classic example is Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf. A lot of people in the know thought Leaf was going to be the better QB, and we know how that turned out.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 25, 2008
Why do you bash Tennessee in all of your posts? All the others are very well thought through and then Tennessee comes up and you act like a retarded 5 year old. Seriously, show some respect
My Response:
I bash the Titans because what they've done makes no sense. They spent a high pick on a quarterback but completely neglected the wide receiver position. Vince Young had nothing to work with last year, and Tennessee's failure to secure a wide out in free agency probably means Young will once again have no help.
It's really frustrating for me - I've defended Young his entire career, but his wide outs make him look worse than he actually is.
Here's to hoping they change their tune on Draft Day.
Why Carl Nicks [to the Dolphins] in the second round? The only thing I could have remembered from Nebraska was a terrible offense against anyone they faced last season. And Sam baker a is just a few picks down to the Raiders, i figure you would put him over Nicks. Could you try to tell me a little bit about Nicks and why he should be there over Baker?
Also, when are you going to put rounds 6 and 7? Everytime the mock is updated, I stop at 4 because I know we dont have a 5th rounder this year. Just want to know.
My Response:
I like Carl Nicks a lot; he's one of the best offensive linemen as far as skill is concerned in this class. He's a first-round talent in my mind, but he slips in Round 2 because of some legal issues he's had. Sam Baker is more for a zone-blocking scheme than anything else, so I look for a team like Oakland or Houston to go after him.
Rounds 6 and 7 will be posted in April. I'll have a notification on my site.
Kevin Smith will go much higher than Round 4. He ran a 4.43 at the combine and has great moves. He is a faster version of Chuck Foreman.
My Response:
I like Kevin Smith as a prospect. I think in normal years he's a 2nd- or a 3rd-round prospect. But as I've been saying for a while, this is the deepest class I've ever seen. That's the only reason he may drop to Round 4. Also remember that a lot of teams don't need running backs.
Would you see any rationale for the Cowboys to trade up to the #7 spot with the Pats? Based on the standard trade value charts #7 is worth 1500 and #22 & #28 are worth 1440, so I suspect that the Pats would also want a 5th or 6th round pick as well. But is there anyone that Dallas would want bad enough to make the trade based on your best guess of how the draft shakes out? Dorsey? Mendenhall? Ellis?
My Response:
Yeah, I'm not sure if I see this happening. If the Cowboys wanted Rashard Mendenhall, they wouldn't have to move up so high. They could trade with the Bills, who are looking to slide down.
Maybe this deal goes down if Darren McFadden is there, but if not, I don't see whom the Cowboys could be targeting at No. 7. It wouldn't really make sense to me.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 23, 2008
All right just to let you know I'm a Jets fan with a couple of questions.
1. What do you think the chances of the Jets drafting Darren McFadden or Vernon Gholston? Those are the two players I see will fit very well with the Jets.
2. What is the latest on WR L.Coles for the Jets? Is he holding out and for what and will the Jets meet his demands?
3. Will the Jets make any more moves with free agents this off-season?
4. What will the Jets record be next year and will it be enough to push into the playoffs?
5. Will DT Robertson start for the Jets next year or will he be shopped? What is holding the trade up with the Bengals? Can the Jets add more draft picks because they still need a lot?
6. What position will Calvin Pace be because many say he is a linebacker while many say he is a defensive end? Where does he play? If he is a defensive end then the Jets definitely will not draft Vernon Gholston? Then they will have Ellis, Jenkins, and Pace on the line.
My Response:
1. I think Gholston and McFadden would both fit in well with the Jets, but I don't see either being available except for this scenario: 1. J. Long; C. Long; S. Ellis; V. Gholston; R.Clady/G.Dorsey... I'd say about a 10-percent chance because I don't see it going down that way.
2. From what I hear, the Jets might be willing to settle the situation with Coles by giving him what he wants or renegotiating his contract.
3. Well, a lot of the key free agents are off the market, so I'm not sure what the Jets could do to improve their team any more through free agency. Maybe that changes if some players are released.
4. I'm going to have to wait until the draft is over to predict a record. I'll be posting season previews for every team in the summer. You'll see my projection then. I think it's just too early to say.
5. Dewayne Robertson could be moved to the Broncos. He was in Denver for a physical recently and Mike Shanahan needs a defensive tackle. If I had to guess, I would say Robertson will be moved this offseason. It all depends on how his knee looks. That's what broke the Bengals trade down.
6. Calvin Pace is an end in the 4-3 and a rush linebacker in the 3-4. I don't think he's big enough to be defensive end.
First off,as a huge Titans fan,I can't begin to understand why they refuse to sign wide recievers this offseason.Now I'm concerned that they may pass on a WR in the draft.I thought Limas Sweed would be great,but you have him going to the Cowboys.With that being said,are there any WR's they could get that could be a star in there first year?I've never heard of James Hardy,and I'm concerned for Vince Young.
Secondly,as a huge Michigan fan,I'm concerned with you having Chad Henne going to Tampa Bay.How many QB's do they have now?It's gotta be near 30.Are there no other teams that could use him?If he goes to Tampa Bay,he may never get the chance I feel he deserves.
My Response:
I'm concerned for Vince Young too. While drafting a receiver in the first round would be the smart thing, the Titans seem uninterested in acquiring talent at that position. Limas Sweed could be off the board, but James Hardy and Malcolm Kelly could be there. I think Kelly's going to be a great receiver. Hardy is an exceptional talent too, and would be higher on most draft boards if he didn't have minor character issues. Both guys could make an impact their rookie seasons, although it's rare that wide outs do that in their first years.
Chad Henne would be the QB of the future for the Bucs. I know they have a lot of arms on that team right now, but I don't expect Chris Simms or Bruce Gradkowski to make the team. That leaves Jeff Garcia / Brian Griese / Luke McCown. If the Bucs draft Henne, he'll start by 2010 or so when Garcia leaves/retires.
I just had some things I saw in your Bengals offseanson needs and draft I wanted to comment on. First with the offseason needs. You have us needing two DE? I don't understand why. We have Geathers and Odom starting, with Rucker and Fanene as the reserves. Now, you may not be up to date, but it sounds like David Pollack will come back and he has already said he wants to be a DE, not a LB. In my opinion if Pollack comes back we have good depth, which negates the need for two DE.
Another thing is Free Safety is still not a big need. We have a lot of players competing for a spot on the roster, and drafting one would add to the confusion. If we do draft one it would be in the later rounds, most likely with the supplement picks we should recieve. That brings me to the draft. With the most likely signing of Ben Utecht, I hear the Colts can't afford him, we now do not need a TE. So with the 4th rounder, there is no question the Bengals will select Mike McGlynn if he is still avaliable. They have liked him for quite some time and really like him. Hope this helps.
My Response:
When I compiled that needs page, I thought the Bengals needed two defensive ends. In the wake of the Odom signing, it's down to one. The Bengals are basically bringing back the same crew that couldn't generate a pass rush last year. I still think they need one more end in their rotation. And Odom, by the way, isn't a proven commodity. He put up solid numbers last year, but he also had Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch taking up double teams right next to him.
Free safety isn't a big need; that's why it's down the list. But the Bengals don't have anyone proven there. They may bring in someone to compete for the starting job with Marvin White. I don't think it would hurt.
And yeah, tight end won't be a need with Ben Utecht in the mix.
I'm a long time NFL fan but have only really become interested in tracking the draft in the last few years. I am curious to know why everyone seems to pencil in McFadden to the raiders at pick 4 on the basis that "Al Davis loves speed and flash"? After looking at the raiders 1st round selections over the last decade I don't think this theory is well supported.
Since 2000 the raiders have selected the following positions in the first round: QB, S, CB,OT,CB,CB+LB, S, K. Although Davis could very well love speed, as most coaches do, if anything that trend supports that the Raiders will try to sure up their awful defense in the first round and look to take skill position players later in the draft.The year Davis drafted Robert gallery he even passed on guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Sean Taylor, Kellen Winslow, and Deangelo Hall. Russel is the only offensive skill position play taken by the raiders in the first round over the last decade. But QB was a huge need and Russels big arm was deserving of 1st over money.
The fact that Fargas had a break out year, they resigned Rhodes, and they have Michael Bush/Lamont in the background further supports McFadden might not be the pick. Lets not forget that when Fargas ran at the combine he had a faster time then McFadden at 4.32; Fargas has plenty speed. Also, even though they signed Tommy Kelly I still think losing Warren Sapp will motivate a defensive pick. I think Davis takes Gholston if hes still around or one of the premier DTs in Dorsey or Ellis, and if Long and Gholston are off the board the Jets get "stuck" taking McFadden.
My Response:
As for your Raiders question, let's look at those players. JaMarcus Russell is definitely flash; any quarterback, especially a mobile one with a big arm, is flashy. Michael Huff ran a 4.34, which would be tops for safeties this year. Fabian Washington, who's an OK corner, ran a 4.29, the fastest at his position that year. Nnamdi Asomugha ran only a 4.45, but at 215 pounds that's really impressive. I guess it's all relative. Even Robert Gallery ran a 4.98 at 325 pounds. Tyler Brayton was quick and athletic at 277 pounds. And we all know how fast Phillip Buchanon was. As for the kicker, Sebastian Janikowski was touted as being able to hit 65-yarders with ease. If that's not flash, I don't know what is.
So, even though the Raiders didn't draft a running back or receiver lately, Al Davis still drafted speed and flash. If Vernon Gholston and Chris Long aren't available (speed and athleticism), he'll go after McFadden... unless Glenn Dorsey is able to work out extremely well (but if that's the case he may go higher than No. 4.)
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 16, 2008
For Walt's 2008 mock draft, would denver really want to draft keith rivers if they signed Boss Bailey, Niko Koutovides and 2 other backups? would about Desean Sackson or another receiver to take Javon Walkers spot or something?
My Response:
Yes, I think Keith Rivers is still a strong option. Boss Bailey is a strongside linebacker. Niko Koutovides is a middle linebacker. Keith Rivers can play the weakside, a spot vacated by the release of Ian Gold.
I know you are like every other a-hole that makes a mock draft, and you are also a comedian that is yet to be discovered. In the last 12+ months, one Cincinnati Bengal had been arrested, and he (Quincy Wilson) was cut. Also, I find it interesting that you claim the Bengals always draft a first day running back. Since they drafted Corey "The Gentleman" Dillon, they have drafted two (2, as in one more than 1!) running backs in the first three rounds, Perry and Irons. I like that your intimate sources have Irons not ready to come back from his injury. None of the Cincinnati, Dayton, or any other legitimate papers have Irons out for any significant time.
Basically, you are a moron, and if you want to make a name for yourself in the football world, talk to people that can report to you about what each team is doing.
Ideally the Bengals will get one of 4 top notch defensive linemen, C. Long, Gholston, Ellis, or Dorsey. Long and Gholston will be long gone, as will Jake Long. It will take a miracle, but Cinci would hop all over Ellis or Dorsey. If all those four are gone, and he is available, they will pounce on McFadden. Otherwise, and mark my words, they will take Rivers out of USC or Harvey of Florida. Many other will say that the Bengals will take Merling out of Clemson, but Harvey and Rivers are much higher on Cinci's board.
The website looks great, but you are a jacka**. Have a great Spring.
My Response:
Thanks for checking out my site and shooting me an e-mail.
I don't care about making a name for myself in the football world. I simply like writing about football and sharing my thoughts.
But they are factually based, believe it or not. You said no publication talked about Kenny Irons being out. Take a look at this: Why Kenny Irons may not be ready for 2008.
Why would Marvin Lewis be unsure of Irons' production if his rehab wasn't going according to plan?
Rotoworld, owned by NBC, agrees: More on Kenny Irons' injury.
Hope that quelled your concerns about my assertion of Irons.
I have the Bengals taking Glenn Dorsey, so we're basically agreeing on the first-round selection, so it looks like the only thing unresolved is the arrest situation. I guess the Bengals have behaved relatively well lately, but take a look at this: Ranking the Cincinnati Bengals arrests.
Out of Cincinnati's 13 most-recent arrests, six of those committed are still employed by the team. Chris Henry is a ticking time bomb and I wouldn't be surprised if he's cuffed sometime this offseason. Guess we'll just have to see.
At any rate, once again, thanks for the e-mail. I'm just sorry you couldn't find more humor in what I wrote. It's just all in good fun; I don't hate the Bengals or anything.
Ok my big question why doesnt anyone think the Chiefs will take Mcfadden if he is available????? Wait, let me explain: Johnson is old and on the way down (see 2007) he was overused in 2006 and now is worn down and will never be that back again.
Reason 2, The chiefs stink, they have maybe two players to draw in Fans, one ia a TE and the other a D-Lineman, they need to sel tickets and build a fan base, drafting McFadden would sell 100plus at least season tickets. So why not. Plus he is fast so when his crappy o-line doesnt block he can just run around them... ha
My Response:
I agree that Larry Johnson is old and on his way out. The ridiculous number of carries Herm Edwards gave him in 2006 absolutely killed his body.
Winning games will also draw fans. Running back isn't the greatest need for them. They need to rebuild their offensive line. They also need a solid defense. Assuming the Chiefs don't make the playoffs and finish last in the AFC West again, they'll have a chance to draft Chris Wells or Knowshon Moreno in 2009. By then, we'll definitely know how much LJ has in the tank. But for now, Kansas City needs to rebuild both lines. I think taking McFadden would be a mistake.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 12, 2008
I have been following the Patriots closely for about 10 years now. I research them as much as possible. I wanted to share with you my opinion on their picks for this year.
I do not believe there is any chance they will pick a corner with the #7 spot. I don't think they currently place enough value on CB to pick one that high with the defense that they run, unless he possesses fabulous kick return potential.
They will look to fill the trenches with this expensive pick. If Vernon Gholston does not fall to them, they will try to move down to mid 1st to get an OLB/DE or OT for less cost, and grab another pick. If they cannot move down, I think they will reach for an OT like Clady or Otah, or more likely will reach for an OLB/DE like Rivers or Harvey. They may even pick up one of the DT's if they fall there as the best player available. Getting heavy QB pressure (or stopping Brady's pressure) is far more important to the Pats then a CB at #7. They can get two or more DB's in the 2-4 rounds to replace Samuels, who I think is a good, but not a great corner. I don't think he will fare as well in Philly, as they need a man to man cover corner in many of their schemes.
My Response:
You made a case for the Patriots not taking a corner because they don't place enough value on them. Well, you can make the same case about linebackers - Bill Belichick loves veteran linebackers, and I just don't see him taking a DE/OLB or ILB in the first round for that reason.
Trading down for a tackle - maybe Ryan Clady - I can definitely see. But I think if the Patriots are locked in at No. 7 and can't move down, they'll take a corner to replace Asante Samuel and Randall Gay.
Can't understand the fact that you have Leodis McKelvin ranked ahead of Rodgers-Cromartie. You correctly point our that Rodgers-Cromartie's combination of size, speed, athleticism and production makes him a freak and has resulted in a meteoric rise on draft boards. You can't point to an advantage in level of competition as McKelvin played at Troy (not exactly Florida or Ohio State). There is NO WAY that the Jets would select McKelvin ahead of him (leaving Rodgers-Cromartie to the Patriots no less). Are you a Pats fan or something? If the Jets line up Revis on one side and Rodgers-Cromartie on the other (with Rhodes in the defensive backfield as well), they will materially improve their pass rush as a result of coverage sacks alone.
Also, didn't the Jets get a fourth round pick from the Redskins for Pete Kendall? This would give them three fourth rounders (along with their own and the one acquired from the Saints). You show only two.
My Response:
While Rodgers-Cromartie had a great combine and has soared up my mock, I still think he's a close second behind Leodis McKelvin. McKelvin also had great pre-draft workouts, much like Rodgers-Cromartie. I couldn't blame the Jets if they took either guy; I think they'll both be terrific corners at the next level.
As for the Pete Kendall trade, this is what Wikipedia has to say about it:
Redskins to Jets. Washington traded a fifth-round draft pick in 2008 to the New York Jets for Pete Kendall. If Kendall played more than 80% of the Redskins' snaps in 2007, the Jets would instead receive a fourth-round pick in 2009
Kendall started all 16 games, so it looks like the Jets will have a fourth-rounder in 2009; not 2008.
You're kind of a stupid ****er when you say Jacques Reeves was one of the worst cover corners in the league. He STARTED 13 games at corner for the Cowboys. Regardless of whether you're right or wrong about his skills, you don't even know the position he played the majority of the year. How in the hell am I supposed to take you seriously. LOL. Dumb****.
My Response:
Thanks for checking out my site.
Sorry you don't agree with my assessment of Jacques Reeves. Reeves started 13 games for the Cowboys because the team had injuries and depth issues at that position. Corner was actually the weakest area for that team last year. It's why they were targeting two corners in the first few rounds of April's draft even before Reeves bolted for Houston.
Just because a player starts in the NFL doesn't make him good. David Carr started a bunch of games for Carolina last year. Is he a good quarterback? I hope not - or I really have to start reevaluating myself in terms of reading talent.
Just read your recent mock draft update. It is a funny thing around Minnesota right now. You're right, about half of Vikes fans like Tarvaris Jackson and about half hate him. I'm in the camp that thinks it's time to move on at quarterback and love the Flacco pick in the 2nd round. Admittantly, I don't know anything about Flacco, but I love his size and hear he's got a cannon for an arm. Flacco to Berrian down the sideline sounds good to me. I hate that we have to take a DE in the first round given our history of drafting DE's high and still needing help at that position, but it is definitely the biggest need. Hopefully Merling can be the real deal. Was watching Path to the Draft last night and Mayock was talking about how Merling was undervalued in the draft so hopefully the Vikes can get a good bargain at 17 with him.
My Response:
I agree with Mayock that Phillip Merling is undervalued. I've received tons of e-mails from people who believe he's a weak pass-rusher. He has seven sacks last year and put tons of pressure on opposing QBs, so I don't know where that's coming from. I know the Vikings haven't been good at drafting DEs in the past, but something tells me that'll change with Merling.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 10, 2008
Walter come on baby, lets get it right. Now I see that you last updated the draft on 3-5, but this never-ending talk of D. McFadden going to the raiders is all wrong. "Why?" you ask, because D. Rhodes restructured his contract and now the raiders are three deep at RB with Fargas, Rhodes, and Bush.
With that being said, why wouldn't Parcells start the rebuilding process with a QB. Its gonna be Matt Ryan to the fins or Falcons. The Rams are gonna take Jake Long, they too much invested in that offense not to take him and he can start from day one. That means the Raiders will have Gholston. C. Long or Dorsey available. The fans would love C. Long and it would make for a great story for preseason. Dorsey would start from day one replacing Sapp. Gholston, Al Davis loves those physical specimens!
My Response:
I'm aware that the Raiders re-signed Justin Fargas - I mention that in my write-up. But Al Davis loves flash and speed. I don't see him passing on McFadden unless Vernon Gholston is available. And Gholston's going second to the Rams unless Chris Long drops to them. Glenn Dorsey is out of the top five with his injuries. That just leaves Sedrick Ellis - and you can make the same case against him that you did with McFadden (they just re-signed Tommy Kelly to a big deal and already had Terdell Sands, also under a big deal.)
As for Matt Ryan going top five, I wouldn't count on it. He's not a top-five prospect. At his age, Bill Parcells won't be in Miami for more than three years. I think he'll go after a veteran QB eventually and draft a QB in the second or third rounds. As for the Falcons, they can get an elite prospect at No. 3 and still draft Brian Brohm or Chad Henne in the second round. That makes more sense than taking a QB in Ryan, who, quite frankly, isn't much better than the second-tier of signal callers.
Your March 5th mock draft is horrible for the Jets. I do like the Jets pick of Leodis McKelvin in the 1st round but the rest of the picks stink. Jerrod Mayo is the same size and weight as Jonathan Vilma so he would, too, be out of position. A smarter pick would be a RT, LG, or WR. The 4th round selection of Kevin Smith also is poor. The Jets are set at running back with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, and soon to be signed Jesse Chatman. They can focus on the running back of the future next year with Chris Wells, Knowshon Moreno, or C.J. Spiller.
My Response:
I'm sorry you aren't a fan of my Jets mock. I do, however, disagree with the premise of your argument against Jerrod Mayo. Mayo is definitely not the same size as Vilma. Vilma weighs 230 pounds, while Mayo is closer to 245. I would agree that they need a tackle, guard and receiver, but Mayo is an incredible talent. He's a better fit for the Jets than you think he is.
An offensive tackle in the fourth round would fill a much-more prominent need, but I don't think the Jets could possibly pass up on a 4th-round steal like Kevin Smith. He's such a great bargain there. Why settle for a mediocre guard when you can draft a guy who would be a second- or a third-round pick on most normal years?
Just curious if you know or understand why LSU players, particulary Glenn Dorsey are falling in the draft?
My Response:
I wouldn't say all of the LSU players are falling - it's just a few but it seems like it's all of them.
Glenn Dorsey is out of the top five. Doctors found injuries that no one even knew about. There's no denying he's an incredible player, but teams might pass on him, thinking he could become the next Courtney Brown. He's such a huge injury risk that a GM won't be able to justify spending a top-five selection on him.
Ali Highsmith and Chevis Jackson have also dropped. Both, particularly Highsmith, ran poor 40s at the combine. I know 40 times won't mean anything when they'll strap on the pads, but it does on draft day.
Other players like Early Doucet and Jonathan Zenon haven't dropped. Just those three.
I am a huge huge huge Steelers fan and I was wondering what your thoughts are about the Steelers going receiver first round. The O-Line isn't as bad as the stats showed, the addition of Sean Mahan (the floor mat) last year at Center is the sole reason for the high amount of sacks, Ben was getting a DT in his face every passing down. I feel we can address that need in the later rounds. Do you think that there is a possibility of a receiver like Kelly dropping to 23? Or is the depth of the receivers good enough to take a possible future starter in the 3rd or 4th. Hines Ward is getting old and only has a few years left and behind Santonio Holmes there is nothing (Cedrick Wilson, Nate Washington).
My Response:
Receiver's definitely a possibility in any of the first couple of rounds. Ben Roethlisberger commented about wanting a large receiver to throw to. Personally, I think Malcolm Kelly is the best wide out in the draft, so I couldn't blame the Steelers if they took him.
But as for the notion that center was the only problem - I'm not so sure about that. Offensive tackle also seemed to be a huge issue. When you allow a sack total in the late 40s, it's usually more than one position that's hurting you. I think Pittsburgh needs a stout offensive tackle.
That said, they could get one in the second round. They have a lot of options, and even trading down (if Kelly's not available) wouldn't be a bad idea either.
Slaton was a bad choice for Cleveland. No way. Harrison and Wright are good fits behind Jamal Lewis. OLB, or ILB is what they need ...and I think the GT guy is great, but don't think for a moment Savage won't go for Highsmith. He's an animal! Give it some thought.
Your CB pick in round 5 is spot on.
And I live in Delaware so am not influenced by the home crowd fans. But have been a life long Browns fan since early 60s. Used to say we'll get you next decade, now I really think its here!
My Response:
don't think you saw my March 5 update - I changed Cleveland's fourth-round pick from Steve Slaton to OLB Darrell Robertson. I agree with you that rush linebacker/corner makes more sense in Rounds 4 and 5. I also think that if the Browns see Steve Slaton or Kevin Smith drop to them in the fifth round they might not be able to resist - just based on shear value and the thought of getting their running back of the future so late in the draft. But as it stands now, linebacker and corner.
And I agree with your optimism - the Browns are in position to win the AFC North next year. They're going to be a really scary team.
2008 NFL Draft E-mails - March 7, 2008
You give great analysis and all of your draft picks make almost perfect sense. However I do have one problem, you really hate Tarvaris Jackson. I'll admit that he makes a lot of mistakes, but he has undenyable talent and shows signs of potential greatness. I do not know if you watch the Vikings very often, but he had absolutely no help at the wide receiver position. I can count numerous games where our receivers dropped huge passes that were right on the money.
As a huge Vikings fan, i have full faith in Tarvaris Jackson for next year. From what i have read and seen, most other viking fans feel that Tjack is a good quarterback as well. This is why i do not understand where the "dozens of e-mails from Minnesotans" are coming from. I am excited for next year and i think that Tarvaris is going to take us to the playoffs, possibly farther. In closing, i would like to restate that i think you great at what you do. I can only hope to have the knowledge and understanding of collegiate prospects if i get the opportunity. Also, i would like to ask why you have Phillip Merling going to the Vikings ast 17. Merling is being projected as more of a run-stopping DE than a pass-rushing one. So why is he ahead of players such as Derrick Harvey or even Calais Campbell?
My Response:
I don't hate Tarvaris Jackson; I just think he's untalented and turnover-prone. A buddy of mine works at the Mirage (that's how I get the NFL betting percentages and amounts during the regular season) and he told me he and his co-workers were really disappointed the Vikings didn't make the playoffs because they all planned on wagering heavily against Jackson.
But you do make a good point - he had absolutely no help at WR. I've watched a good amount of Vikings games - about 10 or 11 this past season - and I just haven't been impressed with Jackson. The arm strength and athleticism are there, without a doubt, but his accuracy and pocket awareness leave much to be desired, in my opinion.
I have Phillip Merling rated a bit higher than Derrick Harvey, and a lot higher than Calais Campbell. Campbell completely bombed his Pro Day, showing up overweight and running a 5+ 40. No way he's going in the first round now. But I wouldn't say Merling is purely a run-stopping DE. He had seven sacks last year.
You have the Seahawks drafting Branden Albert in the first round in your most recent draft; is Albert really a first round talent? And does Seattle really want to use a first round pick on an offensive lineman that might not even start (with LG Mike Wahle signed and G Rob Sims moving over to RG)?
With the signing of RB T.J. Duckett apparently imminent, and TE Jeb Putzier on board, what do you think the Seahawks real needs are? With Deion Branch out for a few weeks to start the season and D.J. Hackett looking more and more like signing elsewhere, what do you think of the chances that they draft a WR (According to your current mock, WR Early Doucet would still be available)? Do you think DT Kentwan Balmer is a reach at 25th overall? Is there also a chance they might not want to wait around until the second round for a TE and grab TE Fred Davis in the first? Is there any chance at all the RBs Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall will be available at 25 and will the Seahawks really draft them and carry Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris, Duckett AND a first rounder on their roster?
My Response:
I still think the Seahawks need a top-notch guard. Mike Wahle is OK - he was cut by the Panthers for a reason - but Seattle's running game has suffered ever since Steve Hutchinson left. Albert, who is a late-first round candidate in my opinion, could go to Seattle at No. 25.
I also still think Seattle needs a RB and TE. The signing of T.J. Duckett could indicate Shaun Alexander will be cut before training camp. And Jeb Putzier was signed to close to the league minimum. It was a 1-year contract anyway. I still think the needs are same.
Could the Seahawks draft a WR in the first? Absolutely - that's definitely a possibility. And Kentwan Balmer is not a reach at No. 25. All of those scenarios could happen. Kind of makes you think the Seahawks could trade down.
Your mock draft is very good. However I do have a problem with your comment about the Lions. Why would you call the Lions running game junk? When the Lions ran the ball for more than 20 times a game it showed, they were 8-0 when doing so. Being a Packer fan I really shouldn't care however I just thought I would mention.
My Response:
Well, I think it's the same reason Hawaii's running game always averages a high YPC... no teams expected the Lions to run the ball, so they just didn't defend against it. It was never a threat, however. Kevin Jones is very mediocre, and T.J. Duckett was nothing more than a short-yardage back.
As a Vikings fan, I'd be ecstatic if they could get Brohm early in the second round. I limited myself to a no-trade scenario, because I think it's "cherry picking" to just see where you had Brohm going, then "create" a trade for him with the team drafting one spot earlier. Do you think that Brohm's skipping the Senior Bowl (if I remember correctly) costs him that much?
My Response:
I don't think it was Brian Brohm missing the Senior Bowl that hurt him, I think it was the fact that he failed to distinguish himself apart from Chad Henne and Joe Flacco at the combine.
what do you think about a U. of Miami safety (Kenny Phillips) replacing U. of Miami safety Sean Taylor in Washington? Without being insulting, I think it would be a huge hit with the fans and it is a position of need. Also, I've got Tennessee taking DE Quentin Groves as they just lost both Lamar Odom and Travis LaBoy to FA. Provided they don't sign a DE in FA, I think Groves is a better value at this spot as opposed to the #4 WR which they can address in the second round. I know you downgraded their draft last year for not taking a WR earlier, but I guess time will tell.
My Response:
I don't see the Redskins taking Kenny Phillips. They need a DE or WR more than anything, and Reed Doughty actually played well toward the end of the season.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Titans take a DE after they've completely disregarded the WR position in free agency. I have no idea what they're doing.
What's your take on the Raiders�boy, they've signed a bunch of players, but it sure seems like they're drastically overpaying for most of �em. I still don't think they'll have much success as long as Al Davis is running things�he needs to retire... now.
My Response:
I don't want Al Davis to retire. He's such a terrible front-office decision-maker that it's almost a comic relief. Every player he has signed this offseason, with the exception of Gibril Wilson, is coming off some sort of knee injury. It's a joke.
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