New England Patriots (Last Year: 7-9)
2021 NFL Season Preview:
Veteran Additions:
WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, TE Hunter Henry, TE Jonnu Smith, OT Trent Brown, G Alex Redmond, C Ted Karras, DE Matthew Judon, DT Davon Godchaux, DT Montravius Adams, OLB Kyle Van Noy, LB Raekwon McMillan, LB LaRoy Reynolds, S Jalen Mills.
Early Draft Picks:
QB Mac Jones, DT Christian Barmore, DE/OLB Ronnie Perkins, RB Rhamondre Stevenson. Patriots Rookie Forecast
Offseason Losses:
RB Rex Burkhead, WR Julian Edelman, WR Damiere Byrd, G Joe Thuney, G Jermaine Eluemunor, C James Ferentz, DE John Simon, DT Beau Allen, DT Adam Butler, CB Jason McCourty.
2021 New England Patriots Offense:
Heading into the 2020 season, many wondered about which of Tom Brady or Bill Belichick would emerge as the winner following their breakup. Belichick pulled ahead early in Week 1 when he and Cam Newton defeated the Dolphins, while Brady was blown out in the opener at New Orleans. Flash forward five months later when Brady claimed his seventh Super Bowl ring, and it became clear that Brady triumphed.
Of course, if Newton had remained healthy throughout the 2020 season, the Patriots may have qualified for the playoffs as well. Newton initially became infected with Covid and then banged his hand on a Denver player’s helmet and wasn’t the same for a while after that. Newton is now 100 percent, but it’s fair to wonder how long that will last. Newton has had major problems remaining healthy since his MVP season in 2015. If Newton gets hurt, the Patriots will hand the reins to No. 15 overall pick Mac Jones, whom one team compared to Matt Barkley.
It didn’t help Newton that he had a lackluster receiving corps at his disposal last year. His only viable wideout or tight end was Jakobi Meyers, as former first-rounder N’Keal Harry failed to separate from NFL cornerbacks. Belichick was eager to address this area in free agency. However, he paid big money to Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor, two pedestrian players at the position. It’s unclear why Belichick spent so many funds on them, and it’s also puzzling as to why he dedicated tons of resources to a pair of tight ends. High-money tight end signings for non-elite players have always failed, and neither Hunter Henry nor Jonnu Smith can be qualified as such. Henry is a very good tight end on the rare occasions in which he’s healthy, but he was overpaid. Nevertheless, he’ll be a much better target for Newton over the middle of the field.
While the receiving corps is still a weakness, Newton at least won’t have to worry about his pass protection, as the Patriots sport one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Their tackles are terrific. Isaiah Wynn proved his doubters wrong when it was estimated that he would have to play guard in the NFL. He has emerged as a tremendous blind-side protector, and he was missed last year when he hurt his knee. His bookend, Trent Brown, was acquired from the Raiders. Brown is a great blocker, but he has issues staying healthy.
The interior blocking is even better than the edge protection. The Patriots have two elite players in this area: guard Shaq Mason and center David Andrews. The third player, Michael Onwenu, was a very pleasant surprise last year.
New England’s spectacular offensive line will be able to blast open plenty of running lanes for Damien Harris, who rushed for 691 yards in 10 games last year. Harris will share the backfield with James White, who will continue to serve as the team’s pass-catching third-down back. Fourth-round rookie Rhamondre Stevenson will compete for touches.
2021 New England Patriots Defense:
Cam Newton’s health was part of the reason why the Patriots failed to make the playoffs in 2020. The decline of the defense, stemming from several opt-outs, was the other major problem. Fortunately for the Patriots, they’ll have some of those players returning to bolster the defense.
New England’s linebacking corps took a big hit with Dont’a Hightower’s absence. Hightower’s return is huge for the group, as is the addition of Kyle Van Noy. The former Dolphin once played for the Patriots, so he’ll be an easy fit into Bill Belichick’s scheme. Van Noy is a great chess piece, as he can do anything that is asked of him. There are also 2020 second-day picks Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings, both of whom are very versatile as well.
Van Noy, Uche and Jennings can rush the passer, but the Patriots still needed to add one more pass rusher to go along with Chase Winovich, who has logged 5.5 sacks in each of his two NFL seasons thus far. New England gave $56 million to Matthew Judon to fill that role. The former Raven is an excellent pass rusher, so he’s an answer to that huge need.
Belichick also felt that he needed to address the interior of the defensive line in the wake of Adam Butler’s departure. He used a second-round pick on Christian Barmore, who could supplant Bryan Cowart in the early stages of the 2021 season. He would play next to Lawrence Guy, a monstrous run stuffer.
The upgrades made to the front seven should help the secondary, which wasn’t as great as usual in 2020. The primary reason for that was Stephon Gilmore not being 100 percent. Gilmore is arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, but he wasn’t healthy this past season. That could easily change this year, allowing the Patriots to erase one side of the field. Opposing passers will have to target J.C. Jackson, who is a fine second cornerback. Jonathan Jones, meanwhile, will reprise his role as the slot cornerback, which he handled extremely well.
New England made one change to the secondary this offseason, signing Jalen Mills. The former Eagle can play cornerback or safety, so he fits into Belichick’s defense as a versatile player. Mills will be part of a talented quartet of safeties – Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger being the others – which will allow Belichick to scheme effectively based on the matchup.
2021 New England Patriots Schedule and Intangibles:
Since 2003, the Patriots are 138-27 at home. They’ve been a near-perfect 62-12 as hosts in the past 74 games, with two losses coming against the Bills without Tom Brady. That said, New England lost a home playoff game to Tennessee.
The Stephen Gostkowski era is over. The Patriots moved on from him with Nick Folk, who went 26-of-28, including 2-of-3 from 50-plus.
Jake Bailey was a middling punter in 2019, finishing 15th in net average. He rose to first last year.
New England had one of the top special teams units last season, scoring a touchdown while not allowing a score to the opposition.
The Patriots have an easy third-place schedule. They’ll have the luxury of battling the NFC South and the AFC South.
2021 New England Patriots Rookies:
Go here for the Patriots Rookie Forecast, a page with predictions like which rookie will bust and which rookie will become a solid starter.
2021 New England Patriots Positional Rankings (1-5 stars):
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2021 New England Patriots Analysis: The Patriots are an intriguing team heading into 2021. They have an improved receiving corps (albeit by default), an elite offensive line and a stellar defense coached by Bill Belichick. If Cam Newton can remain healthy the entire year, New England will qualify for the playoffs and make some noise in January. However, Newton hasn’t been able to remain on the field, so it seems as though it’s a matter of when, not if, he’ll get hurt.
Projection: 8-9 (3rd in AFC East)
2020 Projection: 11-5. 2020 Actual Result: 7-9.
2019 Projection: 11-5. 2019 Actual Result: 12-4.
2018 Projection: 14-2. 2018 Actual Result: 11-5.
2017 Projection: 14-2. 2017 Actual Result: 13-3.
2016 Projection: 12-4. 2016 Actual Result: 14-2.
NFL Draft Team Grade: B- Grade
Goals Entering the 2021 NFL Draft: There’s some chatter about the Patriots moving up for a quarterback, but this would be a mistake. It would also be an error if the Patriots were to eschew quarterbacks all together in the 2021 NFL Draft like they did last year. Unless Justin Fields falls to them at No. 15, they should obtain a new quarterback on Day 2. Otherwise, New England has lots of needs, so adding the best players available would make sense.
2021 NFL Draft Accomplishments: Conventional wisdom says that Mac Jones was a steal at No. 15, but only because people believed the 49ers were considering Jones, which turned out not to be the case. All of the other quarterback-needy franchises between four and 14 didn’t want Jones, which wasn’t a surprise because one team told us they had a third-day grade on Jones, comparing him to Matt Barkley. From that perspective, the Patriots committed a major reach by selecting a player who closely resembles Andy Dalton.
The Jones choice was the only one I didn’t like, save for a sixth-round choice. Every other pick the Patriots made scored in the A/B range. This includes the second-round selection of Christian Barmore, who will be a nice interior pass-rushing presence for the Patriots to help rattle Josh Allen. Third-rounder Ronnie Perkins figures to do the same on the edge.
It’s a shame that the Jones pick has to spoil the Patriots’ overall haul, but it can’t be ignored. The Patriots would have been better off waiting for Day 2 in order to obtain a quarterback prospect resembling Jones’ overall talents.
NFL Draft Individual Grades:
15. Mac Jones, QB, Alabama – D Grade
Yuck. I can’t fail the Patriots because they’re getting “value” with a quarterback some thought would go third overall. That said, several teams we spoke to had Jones in the second round. One had him pegged as a third-day prospect! Jones is an Andy Dalton with DUIs. There’s no upside with him. He’ll need to be surrounded with an all-star cast to reach the playoffs consistently, which was the exact case with Dalton.
38. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama – A Grade
The Patriots traded two fourth-round picks in this deal with the Bengals. They simply couldn’t believe that Christian Barmore was on the board. Barmore was a mainstay of my first round for most of the process, so I love the value New England is getting with a player who can help them pressure Josh Allen.
96. Ronnie Perkins, DE/OLB, Oklahoma – B Grade
Ronnie Perkins figures to be a productive edge rusher in the NFL, but he’ll have to be a situational player because he’ll get killed in run support. Still, the pick makes sense because the Patriots are now chasing the Bills, so they need to pressure Josh Allen as much as possible. I’m a bit concerned with Perkins’ off-the-field issues, but this is still a solid pick.
120. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma – B Grade
The Patriots have addressed the backfield again, which isn’t a big surprise because neither Damien Harris nor Sony Michel has been overly impressive. I’ve had Rhamondre Stevenson in this range, so this pick makes sense to me.
177. Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan – B Grade
The Patriots had severe issues at linebacker last year, so it’s surprising that they waited this long to address the position. Cameron McGrone may have been slotted at the end of the fifth round of one of my updates, so the value is OK.
188. Joshuah Bledsoe, S, Missouri – A- Grade
Joshuah Bledsoe was a solid tackler over his years in Missouri. I thought he would go in the third or fourth round, but he slipped to the Patriots in the sixth frame, so I consider this to be a great value pick. The Patriors needed young blood in the defensive backfield.
197. William Sherman, OT, Colorado – C- Grade
Here’s another player I never considered mocking. I had 500-plus players ranked, but William Sherman didn’t make the cut. He likely could have been acquired as a UDFA.
242. Tre Nixon, WR, Central Florida – B+ Grade
The Patriots’ receiving corps is an abomination, so it’s shocking that they waited this long to address the need. I had Tre Nixon in the final couple of rounds in some of my mock updates. He’s a good athlete with some upside, so he could compete for some snaps.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
Season Summary:
The first season in the post-Tom Brady era didn’t go very well for the Patriots. They began the year well, but Cam Newton’s injuries derailed any sort of playoff chances New England once had.
Offseason Moves:
Team Needs:
- Quarterback: The Patriots didn’t spend a pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on a quarterback. Will they correct that this April? Re-signed Cam Newton
- Two Wide Receivers: New England has the worst receiving corps in the NFL. Jakobi Meyers looks promising, but that’s about it. Signed Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne
- Defensive Tackle: Teams trampled the Patriots’ pathetic ground defense late in the year. Adding a stud defensive tackle would help fix that. Signed Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson and Montravius Adams
- Defensive End: With Deatrich Wise entering free agency, the Patriots’ lone viable edge rusher under contract is Chase Winovich. Signed Matthew Judon
- Center: David Andrews is an impending free agent, so he’ll need to be replaced if he leaves. Re-signed David Andrews; signed Ted Karras
- Tight End: Rob Gronkowski is sorely missed. The Patriots drafted a couple of tight ends last April, but they’ve done nothing thus far. Signed Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith
- Kicker: Nick Folk is set to hit free agency. Re-signed Nick Folk
Follow me @walterfootball for updates.
2021 NFL Free Agent Signings:
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Kyle Van Noy, OLB, Dolphins. Age: 30. 
Signed with Patriots
Kyle Van Noy does everything, whether it’s rush the passer successfully, clamp down on the run or drop into coverage. He had a down year in 2020, but only because he dealt with hip and groin injuries. Age will soon become a concern, but Van Noy is expected to bounce back in 2021.
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Matthew Judon, DE/OLB, Ravens. Age: 29.
Signed with Patriots (4 years, $56 million)
Matthew Judon has never logged double-digit sacks in a season, but he’s always good for anything between six and 9.5 sacks. He’s missed just four games in his career.
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Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers. Age: 26.
Signed with Patriots (3 years, $37.5 million)
Hunter Henry is a tremendous talent, but he’s had trouble staying healthy throughout his career thus far. The upside is there, however, as Henry is just 26.
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Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans. Age: 26.
Signed with Patriots (4 years, $50 million)
Jonnu Smith has loads of potential, but he hasn’t quite lived up to it. He’s played well – 41 catches, 448 yards, eight touchdowns in 2020 – but his numbers should be better. He’s only 26, so he should continue to improve.
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Ted Karras, C, Dolphins. Age: 28.
Signed with Patriots
Ted Karras filled a need for the Dolphins in the middle of the offensive line. He wasn’t exceptional, but he blocked well, particularly in pass protection.
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Nelson Agholor, WR, Raiders. Age: 28.
Signed with Patriots (2 years, $26 million)
Nelson Agholor was a huge bust with Philadelphia. However, he was one of many Eagles who played better once getting away from Doug Pederson. He still had some drop issues, but he made many more big plays with the Raiders.
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Jalen Mills, S/CB, Eagles. Age: 27.
Signed with Patriots (4 years, $24 million)
Jalen Mills did a good job of transitioning from cornerback to safety. He performed well in every regard at his new position.
- Henry Anderson, DE/DT, Jets. Age: 30. — Signed with Patriots (2 years)
- Kendrick Bourne, WR, 49ers. Age: 26. — Signed with Patriots (3 years)
- Montravius Adams, DT, Packers. Age: 26. — Signed with Patriots
- Davon Godchaux, DT, Dolphins. Age: 26. — Signed with Patriots (2 years, $16 million)
- Raekwon McMillan, LB, Raiders. Age: 25. — Signed with Patriots (1 year)
- Alex Redmond, G, Bengals. Age: 26. — Signed with Patriots
- Marvin Hall, WR, Browns. Age: 28. — Signed with Patriots
- LaRoy Reynolds, LB, Falcons. Age: 30. — Signed with Patriots
New England Patriots Free Agents:
Salary Cap: TBA.
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Joe Thuney, G, Patriots. Age: 28.
Signed with Chiefs (5 years, $80 million)
Joe Thuney is an excellent offensive lineman. Not only does he block extremely well; he can play numerous positions on the front. He deserves a huge contract.
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David Andrews, C, Patriots. Age: 29.
Re-signed with Patriots (4 years)
David Andrews is coming off a down year because he dealt with an injury. He should be able to rebound in 2020 and reestablish himself as one of the better centers in the NFL.
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J.C. Jackson (RFA), CB, Patriots. Age: 25.
Tendered by Patriots (2nd)
J.C. Jackson has been an improving player over the past few years. He had a solid 2020 campaign, and he should continue to get better, given that he’s just 25.
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Nick Folk, K, Patriots. Age: 36.
Re-signed with Patriots (1 year, $1.225 million)
Nick Folk missed just two field goals last year, going 26-of-28, including 2-of-3 from 50-plus. He missed three extra points.
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Cam Newton, QB, Patriots. Age: 32.
Re-signed with Patriots
Cam Newton can still play well when healthy. We saw that last year when he battled the Seahawks and Bills (first meeting) to the very end. However, he still gets injured too easily, so teams can’t count on him remaining healthy.
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James White, RB, Patriots. Age: 29.
Re-signed with Patriots (1 year, $2.5 million)
James White is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Given his playing style, he should be able to keep playing well into his 30s.
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Deatrich Wise, DE, Patriots. Age: 27.
Re-signed with Patriots
Deatrich Wise improved last year as a pass rusher. He logged 2.5 sacks, but that’s not indicative of how well he played. Wise should continue to upgrade his game.
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Jason McCourty, CB, Patriots. Age: 34.
Jason McCourty was once a great cornerback, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore, given his age.
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Jermaine Eluemunor, G/OT, Patriots. Age: 26.
Signed with Dolphins
Jermaine Eluemunor has been a career backup thus far, but he played well in relief for New England last year. He deserves a chance to compete for a starting job, and at 26, he has some upside.
- Beau Allen, DT, Patriots. Age: 29.
- Lawrence Guy, DT, Patriots. Age: 31. — Re-signed with Patriots (4 years)
- Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots. Age: 31. — Signed with Texans
- Damiere Byrd, WR, Patriots. Age: 28.
- John Simon, DE, Patriots. Age: 30.
- Adam Butler, DT, Patriots. Age: 27. — Signed with Dolphins (2 years)
- James Ferentz, C, Patriots. Age: 32.
- Terrence Brooks, S, Patriots. Age: 29. — Signed with Texans (1 year, $2 million)
- Shilique Calhoun, DE, Patriots. Age: 29.
- Brandon Copeland, LB, Patriots. Age: 30.
- Cody Davis, S, Patriots. Age: 32. — Re-signed with Patriots (2 years)
- Justin Bethel, CB, Patriots. Age: 31. — Re-signed with Patriots (3 years, $6 million)
- Carl Davis, DT, Patriots. Age: 29.
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Patriots. Age: 35. — Re-signed with Patriots
- Marcus Martin, C, Patriots. Age: 32.
- Marqise Lee, WR, Patriots. Age: 29. — Signed with 49ers
NFL Free Agent Tracker:
QB | RB | FB | WR | TE | OT | G | C | DE | DT | OLB | ILB | CB | S | K/P | FA Grades | FA Rumors
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