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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 8 matchup
Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Line: Patriots -7 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Patriots | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| #10 | Power rank ◀ | #32 |
| 4-3 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 1-5 |
| 3-2-2 | Against the spread ◀ | 2-3-1 |
| 1-2-1on the road | ATS on the road / at home ◀ | 0-1-1at home |
| 2-0-1as favorite | ATS as favorite / underdog ◀ | 2-3-1as underdog |
| +2.4pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | -1.6pts per game |
| +17 | Point differential ◀ | -59 |
| 11.9avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ◀ | 13.3avg. opp. rank |
| #6 | Net EPA rank ◀ | #30 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Weeks 2-2, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Patriots offense | Dolphins defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #5 | EPA per play ◀ | #27 |
| #4 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #29 |
| #27 | Rush EPA ▶ | #25 |
| #11 | Success rate ◀ | #32 |
| #2532.5% of dropbacks | Pressure rate allowed vs. pressure rate ▶ | #2326.7% of dropbacks |
| Patriots defense | Dolphins offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #14 | EPA per play ◀ | #23 |
| #15 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #22 |
| #13 | Rush EPA ◀ | #20 |
| #16 | Success rate ◀ | #27 |
| #1230.4% of dropbacks | Pressure rate vs. pressure rate allowed ◀ | #3135.8% of dropbacks |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
New England PatriotsSEAHAWKS 13, Patriots 10 (SEA -3). Sam Darnold got hurt on the opening drive, and the Seahawks couldn't do anything offensively until the second half when the Patriots fell asleep at a late hour. A.J. Brown got hurt, while Drake Maye and Romeo Doubs made numerous mistakes.
PATRIOTS 20, Steelers 3 (NE -5.5). The Patriots began this game with a turnover in the red zone, but they smothered Aaron Rodgers and forced him into two turnovers, including a strip-six. 327-235 NE, 6.2-3.5 NE
JAGUARS 35, Patriots 6 (JAX -3). The Jaguars dominated from start to finish, as the Patriots repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. New England got its yardage in garbage time. 317-315 NE, 5.3-5.3 tie
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
PATRIOTS 45, Raiders 17 (NE -3.5). The only mistake the Patriots made in this game was a Corey Kiner fumble. Otherwise, Drake Maye lit up the Raiders, and Kirk Cousins couldn't keep up at all with no help from the running game. 536-306 NE, 8.1-5.4 NE
PATRIOTS 26, Jets 19 (NE -7). The Jets had a sloppy start in this game and fell behind double digits. They played better in the second half, but couldn't complete the comeback because they couldn't get off the field as the Patriots ran the ball down their throat with Corey Kiner. 426-412 NYJ, 7.2-6.1 NYJ
BEARS 30, Patriots 24 (CHI -3). The Patriots scored a bogus touchdown at the end of the first but otherwise didn't do too much offensively outside of one drive per half. The Bears smothered Drake Maye who was missing three guards, while Caleb Williams threw for 300+ yards. 405-380 CHI, 7.6-6.1 NE
Miami DolphinsRAIDERS 27, Dolphins 13 (LV -3.5). The Raiders ran all over the Dolphins. They made some mistakes, but the Dolphins couldn't take advantage because they made numerous mistakes of their own. 290-259 LV, 4.1-3.5 MIA
49ERS 35, Dolphins 13 (SF -13). The 49ers dominated this game offensively, with Brock Purdy going 20-of-22. The Dolphins kept up for a while in the first half, but couldn't do anything outside of a garbage time touchdown in the second half. 382-284 SF, 7.8-5.1 SF
Chiefs 24, DOLPHINS 10 (MIA +11.5). The Chiefs were up 14-7 when they began making mistakes. The Dolphins were able to hang around despite losing DeVon Achane, but the Chiefs eventually scored two late touchdowns to put the game out of reach. 334-329 KC, 6.8-4.9 KC
VIKINGS 15, Dolphins 10 (MIN -10.5). The Vikings dominated time of possession by 20 minutes and Malik Willis didn't even get 10 completions. They couldn't convert in the red zone. All the Dolphins could manage was a long touchdown run by Ollie Gordon. 336-198 SEA, 6.7-4.0 SEA
Bengals 31, DOLPHINS 24 (MIA +7). This was a 28-10 game after three quarters and a 31-18 game with two minutes left, but the Dolphins engineered a backdoor push and would have covered if they didn't miss the extra point. Malik Willis was awful for most of the game. 331-307 MIA, 5.2-4.9 MIA
Dolphins 28, JETS 25 (NYJ -4). The Dolphins scored at will in the first half. The Jets were able to move the ball well in between the 20s, but constantly made mistakes in the red zone to ruin a potential comeback from down 21-7. 377-360 NYJ, 7.1-5.6 NYJ
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 8 matchups · New England Patriots team page · Miami Dolphins team page
