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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 6 matchup
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Line: Steelers -2.5 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Steelers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| #25 | Power rank ◀ | #29 |
| 3-2 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread ◀ | 2-3 |
| 0-2on the road | ATS on the road / at home ▶ | 1-2at home |
| 2-1as favorite | ATS as favorite / underdog ◀ | 2-2as underdog |
| +0.4pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | -0.9pts per game |
| +2 | Point differential ◀ | -12 |
| 18.6avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ▶ | 16.0avg. opp. rank |
| #26 | Net EPA rank ▶ | #24 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Weeks 2-5, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Steelers offense | Buccaneers defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #16 | EPA per play ▶ | #8 |
| #23 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #19 |
| #3 | Rush EPA ▶ | #2 |
| #13 | Success rate ▶ | #11 |
| Steelers defense | Buccaneers offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #31 | EPA per play even | #31 |
| #26 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #31 |
| #30 | Rush EPA ▶ | #11 |
| #25 | Success rate ◀ | #27 |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Pittsburgh SteelersSTEELERS 20, Falcons 13 (PIT -3.5). The Steelers allowed the Falcons to hang around with some sluggish offense and a Jaylen Warren fumble, but the Steelers came up big with huge plays against Cooper Rush. 264-238 PIT, 4.2-4.1 ATL
PATRIOTS 20, Steelers 3 (NE -5.5). The Patriots began this game with a turnover in the red zone, but they smothered Aaron Rodgers and forced him into two turnovers, including a strip-six. 327-235 NE, 6.2-3.5 NE
STEELERS 30, Bengals 27 (PIT +3.5). The Bengals couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers in the first half, but tightened up defensively for the most part in the second half. The Bengals had the lead twice and were set to get possession but they roughed the punter and later muffed the punt. Joe Burrow moved into field goal range at the end, but lost a strip-sack. 411-352 PIT, 7.0-6.3 PIT
BROWNS 27, Steelers 24 (CLE +3). The Steelers went up 7-0, but the Browns dominated most of the game until late when there was a Deshaun Watson interception. The Steelers tied the game, but Watson came up big in the clutch. 372-361 CLE, 6.0-5.6 CLE
STEELERS 34, Colts 22 (PIT -2.5). This was a close game for most of the afternoon before the Steelers pulled away late. The Colts couldn't run the ball and constantly kicked in the red zone. Their defense looked tired from travel. 352-332 PIT, 6.5-4.8 PIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersBENGALS 33, Buccaneers 27 (CIN -3.5). The Buccaneers gave this game away with four lost fumbles. They were down big, but made the game interesting. They couldn't get off the field on the final Cincinnati drive, however. 351-282 CIN, 5.6-5.4 CIN
Browns 23, BUCCANEERS 19 (TB -8.5). Baker Mayfield made many terrible throws in this game. One of his few good ones gave the Buccaneers a 16-6 lead, but Tampa Bay couldn't stop the Browns at all late in the game. A 2-and-a-half thunderstorm delayed the inevitable. 313-267 TB, 5.0-4.9 TB
Vikings 23, BUCCANEERS 16 (TB +1). The Buccaneers looked in disarray the entire game. They made many mistakes, including allowing a punt return touchdown and having a hold negate an 87-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield got hurt at the end. 243-230 TB, 4.2-3.8 MIN
Packers 17, BUCCANEERS 14 (TB +3.5). The Packers squandered numerous opportunities in the red zone with turnovers, and they were given those scoring chances because Jalon Daniels gave them possessions on two interceptions. 283-275 GB, 5.1-4.5 GB
Buccaneers 24, COWBOYS 16 (DAL -8). The Cowboys put forth no effort in this game. They were lethargic and the Buccaneers played with much more emotion. A chunk of Dallas' yards came in garbage time when it was 24-10. 419-366 TB, 6.7-6.4 DAL
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 6 matchups · Pittsburgh Steelers team page · Tampa Bay Buccaneers team page
