I’ve received a ton of e-mails from people asking me why I think Eric Berry is a reach for the top three, and why I think he will ultimately fall out of the top five.
Rather than slap all of those e-mails together into one NFL Draft Mailbag, I thought I’d create a separate page outlining the history of the top three selections in the NFL Draft.
The following chart details which positions were taken with the top three selections since the 1998 NFL Draft:
NFL Draft Year |
No. 1 |
No. 2 |
No. 3 |
2009 |
QB |
OT |
DE |
2008 |
OT |
DE |
QB |
2007 |
QB |
WR |
OT |
2006 |
DE |
RB |
QB |
2005 |
QB |
RB |
WR |
2004 |
QB |
OT |
WR |
2003 |
QB |
WR |
WR |
2002 |
QB |
DE |
QB |
2001 |
QB |
OT |
DT |
2000 |
DE |
OLB |
OT |
1999 |
QB |
QB |
QB |
1998 |
QB |
QB |
DE |
As you can see, all the picks were either quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, offensive tackles or defensive ends.
There were exceptions that I bolded. In 2001, the inept Cleveland Browns took defensive tackle Gerard Warren No. 3 overall. He was a major bust. The year before, genius drafter Daniel Snyder selected LaVar Arrington second overall. Arrington had injury and attitude problems, and his career was consequently cut very short.
Going into more detail, here are how many of each position were taken in the first three picks since 1998:
Position |
Amount |
QBs |
15 |
RBs |
2 |
WRs |
5 |
TEs |
0 |
OTs |
6 |
G/C |
0 |
DEs |
6 |
DTs |
1 |
LBs |
1 |
DBs |
0 |
So, what does all of this mean? No defensive back has been drafted in the top three picks. Not Ed Reed. Not Troy Polamalu. Not Bob Sanders. In the grand scheme of things, the safety position is not that important compared to quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive end, etc.
As far as some of the other positions are concerned, unless a team is convinced a certain linebacker will be the next Ray Lewis, and Daniel Snyder isn’t involved, you can forget about one going in the top three picks.
Conversely, if there’s a quarterback on the fringe of top-five consideration, there’s a good chance he’ll be chosen in the top three, assuming one of those teams could use an upgrade at the position (i.e. Rams with Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford).
Like Arrington and Warren, there are exceptions to the rule. Some quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn bottomed out completely.
Of course, those exceptions are the things that cause us to gasp in amazement and then rant about how dumb some of these NFL general managers are. And that’s just what makes the NFL Draft so fun.
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