WaltFour weeks into the NFL season some trends are starting to emerge about what teams might contend for the biggest prize and which could fall back into obscurity. Some NFL bets are looking better than others at this point but there’s still plenty of time for teams to turn things around.
The race for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) is dominated by a cast of familiar characters. Josh Allen still leads the rankings, with Brock Purdy being the dark horse who’s quickly catching up on Allen. Then there’s the resurgent Patrick Mahomes, a breakout Trevor Lawrence, and an injured Lamar Jackson to round out the current top five.
The best-priced non-running back market is Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs, with no non-passer winning the award since Adrian Peterson’s standout 2012 season. Last year was a photo finish, with Matthew Stafford winning by a single first-place vote over Drake Maye, which was one of the closest finishes in many years. Both are well off the pace this season so far.
Josh Allen
Allen was the pre-season favourite and he remains at the top of the pile after four games, despite the Bills having their first loss of the year. Allen is the most prolific scorer in the league and he’s accounted for 13 touchdowns in the first four games.
This includes 6 through passes and 7 on the ground. He started with a shootout win over the Texans before they experienced their first loss on Sunday to the Patriots, losing 29-26 at home.
The case against Allen is that his last two weeks have been a little wobbly. The Week 3 win over the Chargers saw him throw for only 204 yards, which included two interceptions and four sacks. He salvaged his day with two rushing scores.
He completed 23 of 33 passes against the Patriots for 253 yards before throwing a game-ending interception while being hit as he released the ball. However, his odds haven’t really been impacted so far, as Allen seeks a second MVP in three seasons.
Brock Purdy
Purdy has moved more positions in the rankings than any other player, starting the season 10th in board and now moving into second place. The 49ers are one of just three unbeaten teams left in the NFL.
Purdy has completed 69.6% of passes so far and thrown only a single interception in four games. His standout performance was throwing for 297 yards and four touchdowns when beating Arizona in Week 3.
He was a little quieter last week against the Broncos with two touchdowns and 218 yards. However, he had no sacks or turnovers and threw the winning score for George Kittle. Analysts have seen him as being the best quarterback so far this season.
His performances are especially impressive as the receiving room is dealing with injuries. Mike Evans is struggling with a few knocks, and Ricky Pearsall, Christian Kirk, and De’Zhaun Stribling have all been unavailable.
The issue with Purdy is that his season hasn’t had a defining carry-the-team moment that voters tend to back. However, the 49ers are in a good spot to continue their unbeaten streak and wins are what a typical MVP case builds upon.
Patrick Mahomes
The comeback narrative is writing itself so far, after Mahomes returned from an ACL injury inflicted late last season. Kansas City missed the playoffs and people questioned whether Mahomes would be the same type of player when he laced up again in September. Things are looking good so far, with the Chiefs being 4-0.
However, Mahomes’ stat line hasn’t been spectacular. He only completed 50% of his 30 passes last week for 225 yards against the Raiders. His pedigree as a two-time MVP winner helps and his odds have shortened as the weeks have gone on.
The supporting cast is thinning out, as Rashee Rice faces time on the sideline with a hamstring injury and Tyquan Thornton could miss the rest of the season with an ankle dislocation. That will put more importance on Mahomes.
Another consideration is the potential vote splitting in his locker room, as running back Kenneth Walker III is now the favourite for Offensive Player of the Year. And Mahomes is vying for the Comeback Player of the Year award. Voters sometimes prefer to spread the love around between different teams.
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence is perhaps the biggest surprise in the top five rankings. The Jaguars are 3-1 after beating the Browns, Patriots, and Bengals. Lawrence completed about two-thirds of his passes so far, trading eight touchdowns with two interceptions.
His best outing, efficiency-wise, was going 18 for 23 for 227 yards against Cincinnati. The performance by the Jaguars against the Patriots made fans sit up and take notice.
Lawrence had a strong last eight weeks of the season last year, which put him into the MVP debate. This is now the best start in his six seasons. His numbers aren’t up to the level of Allen, but the Jaguars have a clear road to another AFC South title and are gearing up well for the year ahead.
Lamar Jackson
Jackson tends to deliver some massive numbers. He’s completed almost 71% of his passes after four games for 967 yards, with 6 touchdowns and just one interception. This is in addition to 141 rushing yards.
The problem is that Jackson reportedly suffered an ankle injury in Week 4 against the Titans. He left in the second quarter and was seen in a walking boot. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported he only has a slim chance to play in Sunday’s Week 5 game against the Falcons and there could be subsequent missed games too.
Thankfully for Ravens fans, the injury isn’t thought to be long-term or crucial. Tyler Huntley will start in his absence.
The injury concern is why Jackson’s odds in the MVP race have been drifting. He missed four games last season with a string of nagging back injuries, so bettors are wary about his durability despite being a two-time MVP.
The Ravens are currently 3-1 and share the AFC North lead with the Browns. However, they’ve gone 6-11 in games where Jackson has been missing during his career, so a slide in rankings in his absence could also dampen the MVP odds.
Charlie Campbell