NBA DraftKings Sims DFS Picks

Cade Cunningham

It’s fun to play DraftKings and FanDuel and hope to win six or even seven figures, but sims have broken the experience. Some DFS sites, a few of which are run by very sketchy characters, charge upwards of $400 or $500 per month for their sims. This creates a heavy imbalance between the sharks and the casual players. 

I’ve created a program that spits out analysis of what these sims provide. I can’t give you full lineups because DraftKings will ban me, but I can give you the thought process behind the sims lineup generation and a partial lineup to go with it. 

This is free, but if you’d like to contribute, please consider signing up for the ad-free version of the site. The Ad-Free Version of WalterFootball.com is $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help! 

 

Overall strategy the sims preferred

The optimizer repeatedly favored:

Core

  • Cade
  • Mobley
  • Duren
  • Allen

Salary unlocks

  • Jenkins
  • Merrill
  • Wade

Higher-variance tournament pieces

  • Mitchell
  • Harden
  • LeVert

while being relatively cautious on:

  • overpriced wings
  • fragile bench players
  • expensive CPT builds that forced multiple bad punts.

The lineups were fundamentally trying to:

maximize total projected lineup ceiling while minimizing the number of low-minute players required.

This is not a “must get insanely weird” tournament. It’s more of a medium-large field where:

  • ceiling still matters
  • but raw projection matters a lot more than in a Milly Maker

So the sims heavily favored:

  • high-minute certainty
  • concentrated usage
  • avoiding dead value plays
  • leaving very little salary unused

Why Daniss Jenkins CPT showed up

This was the biggest leverage point in the file.

The sim liked Jenkins because:

  • his salary was extremely low relative to projection
  • CPT multiplier creates enormous point-per-dollar leverage
  • he enabled multiple raw-ceiling combinations

The important thing:
he did not project as the highest raw scorer.

But showdown optimizers care heavily about:

ceiling generated per dollar at CPT.

Jenkins allowed:

  • Cade
  • Mitchell/Harden
  • Mobley
  • another premium big

all in the same lineup.

That combination repeatedly outscored:

  • traditional “star CPT + weak punts” constructions.

So the sim was essentially saying:

Jenkins at CPT unlocks a much stronger overall 6-man combination.


Why Mobley CPT appeared repeatedly

Mobley was one of the strongest:

  • median
  • ceiling
  • minutes
  • peripheral-stat

plays in the file.

And importantly:

  • he was cheaper than Cade CPT
  • cheaper than Mitchell CPT
  • but still possessed near-comparable ceiling in the simulations

That’s the sweet spot for showdown CPTs.

He also correlated extremely well with:

  • Allen
  • Mitchell
  • slower-game scripts
  • defensive stat accumulation

So Mobley CPT became:

one of the best leverage-adjusted ceiling plays.


Why Cade appeared in almost every lineup

Cade projected as:

  • the safest raw fantasy scorer
  • highest touch concentration
  • strongest minutes expectation

The sims basically treated him as:

the closest thing to a “must” raw points play.

The optimizer consistently preferred:

  • locking Cade UTIL
    rather than
  • forcing him into CPT.

Why?

Because:

  • his salary inflation at CPT hurt lineup flexibility too much.

Why there were so many double-big builds

The file strongly favored:

  • Mobley
  • Allen
  • Duren

because showdown scoring rewards:

  • rebounds
  • blocks
  • stocks
  • double-double equity

more than people often realize.

Bigs also tend to:

  • project more consistently
  • maintain minutes in playoff environments

So the optimizer kept preferring:

  • stable big-man production
    over
  • volatile wings.

Why Sam Merrill and Dean Wade kept appearing

This is classic showdown optimizer behavior.

The sims liked them because:

  • they had acceptable minute projections
  • enough three-point variance to spike
  • low salaries
  • opened stronger core combinations

Importantly:
they weren’t projecting as “great plays.”

They were:

optimal salary connectors.

The optimizer often prefers:

  • one or two low-usage cheap players
    IF
    it allows three or four elite raw scorers together.

 

Lineup 1

Slot Player Team Salary
CPT Daniss Jenkins DET $9,600
UTIL Cade Cunningham DET $11,600
UTIL Donovan Mitchell CLE $10,400

Blank

Blank

     
       
UTIL Sam Merrill CLE $2,000

Salary: $50,000
Projection: 228.88

Lineup 2

Slot Player Team Salary
CPT Daniss Jenkins DET $9,600
UTIL Cade Cunningham DET $11,600
UTIL James Harden CLE $9,800

Blank

Blank

     
       
UTIL Sam Merrill CLE $2,000

Salary: $49,800
Projection: 225.69

 

 

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Once again, if you’d like to contribute, please consider signing up for the ad-free version of the site. The Ad-Free Version of WalterFootball.com is $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. My developer will be adding new features to paid subscribers as well, so look for that in the near future. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!