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Projected Pick Trades – 2008 NFL Draft (Updated – 4/26)
One of the most intriguing parts of the draft is the trading that goes on, much of that we don’t hear about the trades being worked that get rejected. Good luck finding another Web site that projects trades, but that is exactly what I am going to do for you.
I don’t think all of these trades will happen, nor will they likely be perfect. Using general knowledge of where players will go in the draft, I have to provide a logical explanation as to why each team will make each trade (so don’t expect any nonsense like the Broncos moving up four spots for Jarvis Moss).
The only way to project these trades is with the Trade Value Chart, which is in the war room of every NFL team. It isn’t the law, but it happens to be a guide. Also, if you look at the current draft order, they might not match up with some of the trades if you automatically compare it to the TVC, but keep in mind I removed compensatory picks from having value on the TVC, since they are not tradable.
Trade No. 1: The DeWayne Robertson trade from the Jets to Denver certainly shook up my projected trades. Denver will no longer trade up for Sedrick Ellis since they have this need filled.
Other than Denver, no one is going to move up for Ellis other than the Saints. They could really use an elite defensive tackle (Jon Sullivan puts a bad taste in the mouths of Orleans’ fans), and the Bengals are sitting there hoping that he falls past the Chiefs and no one makes a move.
Assuming that the Chiefs pass on Ellis for a player such as Branden Albert or Vernon Gholston, here is the trade projection:
New Orleans Receives: No. 7 pick (1,500 TVC points)
New England Receives: Nos. 10 and 78 picks (1,500 TVC points)
About as fair as you can ask for, but the Patriots might be able to make the Saints squirm just enough to make them give up their 2009 third-rounder as well and execute some serious leverage, which is what you have to do.
A team wants to trade up to your spot, and they know they won�t get that player if they don�t make this deal, then you need to get as much value as possible.
Why can’t Baltimore make this trade? Because they likely don’t want to pass up on Matt Ryan, so the Saints are forced to deal with New England.
Trade No. 2A: When you consider how far Edgerrin James has fallen, Ken Wisenhunt wants to emphasize the power running game. And who better to do that, than Rashard Mendenhall? Many think he is the best running back in this class. Denver, Carolina, Chicago, and Detroit (teams at spots 12-15) could all pursue Mendenhall because they all have a need at that position. Arizona needs to leapfrog these squads and a possible trade partner is Buffalo at No. 11. The second trade projection:
Arizona Receives: No. 11 (1,250 TVC points)
Buffalo Receives: Nos. 16, 81, & 116 (1,255 TVC points)
Both teams get what they want (if Arizona does in fact want Mendenhall this badly) and this is a very equal trade according to the value chart.
Trade No. 2B: This is similar to one in Walter’s Alternative Mock. Rumor is that Philadelphia does in fact want to move Lito Sheppard on Draft Day. One destination is Buffalo, who could welcome in his talent and experience. Who would the Eagles trade up for? When I make trade projections, there always has to be a demand for the player the team is trading up to acquire. Ryan Clady is the best left tackle prospect in the draft in my opinion, though he needs some development. Some think Branden Albert can play left tackle. It all depends on whom the Eagles want more (or if either player is still on the board at 11) in this scenario. It doesn’t affect the value of the trade either way. My second trade projection that involves the Bills:
Philadelphia Receives: Nos. 11 & 114 (1,324 TVC points)
Buffalo Receives: Lito Sheppard & No. 19 (Player acquired plus 875 TVC points)
This means that I gave Sheppard a value of approximately 449 points, which is equivalent to a slightly lower pick than what the Raiders gave up for DeAngelo Hall (560 points).
Trade No. 3: If Cam Cameron passes on Matt Ryan at 8 like he did last year with Brady Quinn at 9, Radio City Music Hall will erupt once again, but I think it's very possible if he likes Brian Brohm, Joe Flacco or Chad Henne more than Ryan. Maybe Baltimore goes corner at No. 8 instead. It's an interesting decision.
The Bears could go with offensive line help at 14 and pass on Ryan as well. Chris Williams, Ryan Clady, and Branden Albert could all be taken because of a glaring need for Chicago (provided one of these players is still on the board at this time.
A team desperate for a franchise quarterback is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and if the Bears pass up on him at 14 they would probably be on the move to get Ryan, led of course by quarterback collector Jon Gruden. You may say, "Well, if Ryan falls past the Bears, couldn't Tampa make a move earlier to get him?" I think so, but why it doesn't happen here is because Bruce Allen is a very patient GM during the draft. Historically, he doesn't trade up, and stands back and acquires a talent. I don't think he would get rid of his first- and second-round picks when he has other needs at corner and receiver. My next trade projection:
Tampa Receives: No. 15 (1,050 TVC points)
Detroit Receives: Nos. 20, 83 & 153 (1,059 TVC points)
Detroit could use a trading partner to go lower in the first round and still pick up a very good player in Jerod Mayo (whom they are rumored to love). Teams picking from 16 to 19 don't have a need at inside linebacker, so this makes a lot of sense for Detroit as well.
Trade No. 4: Another team looking to trade down would be Chicago because they have nine needs on offense (everything other than center and tight end.) They have needs to fill, and a team that can fill those needs are the Dallas Cowboys. So what's in it for Jerry Jones?
The Cowboys could be trading up for a left tackle (to succeed Flozell Adams) or a starting cornerback. Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Mike Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are players I feel like Dallas could be making a move for that wouldn't be there at No. 22 overall. The trade projection:
Dallas Receives: No. 14 (1,100 TVC points)
Chicago Receives: Nos. 22, 61 & 126 (1,122 TVC points)
Dallas can afford to make this move because, as we all know, they are the only team to have two first-round selections (as of now). Cromartie can be a shut down corner in the NFL; his frame looks like the prototype, but some development needs to be made in his game.
Trade No. 5: Jacksonville needs a deep threat at receiver (Troy Williamson doesn't count) and all of their targeted wideouts might be off the board, as there should be a receiver run starting with Philly, then going with Tampa, Washington, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Seattle. So, to leapfrog all of these teams, the Chiefs might be looking to get out of their No. 17 pick. On to the trade projection:
Jacksonville receives: No. 17 (950 TVC points)
Kansas City receives: Nos. 26, 71 and 158 (966.8 TVC points)
Trade No. 6: Teams get paranoid on Draft Day. They get worried that some team will make a crazy pick or some squad will make an insane trade. I think Atlanta will pass up on Matt Ryan at No. 3, which means they need to get a quarterback early into the second round. But will they wait that long? Someone like Baltimore (if they don't draft Ryan at 8), Arizona or Minnesota might be willing to make a move high into the second round to secure the quarterback Atlanta is coveting (whether it's Brian Brohm or Joe Flacco).
San Diego desperately needs more picks to fill some of their needs at right tackle, corner and running back. The next trade projection:
Atlanta Receives: No. 27 (680 TVC points)
San Diego Receives: Nos. 48 & 68 (670 TVC points)
Atlanta is able to keep their picks at 34 and 37 while acquiring another first-round selection! It would be a great day for both Atlanta and San Diego fans; they both get what they need in this trade.
Trade No. 7: The Green Bay Packers have a very talented team, but one position they don't have an elite player at is right defensive end (Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and Cullen Jenkins arne't every-down players). I think a guy who could bring a ton of pressure is Derrick Harvey. Harvey could slip out of the top 15 because teams have other needs to fill.
Organizations that would have to pass on him are Cincinnati, Buffalo and Carolina, but it's definitely possible. Who wants Harvey? Minneosta would be dying to draft him, and so the Packers would have to make a move with the Cardinals at No. 16. My final trade projection:
Green Bay Receives: No. 16 (1,000 TVC points)
Arizona Receives: Nos. 30, 56, & 128 (1,008 TVC points)
I don't think Green Bay wants to stay at 30. I feel like they will move out of that pick either way, and Harvey is one of the few players whom they could trade up for. Others candidates would be Mike Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie if they were to fall into the teens like Harvey in this projection.
Projected Player Trades - 2008 NFL Draft (4/24)
Jared Allen is just the tip of the iceberg, as other players will be shaked and baked on Draft Day. Teams have players they want to trade out to acquire younger talent, and some teams would rather bring in a veteran here and there.
Here are my Draft Day Trade Projections specifically involving NFL veterans on the trading block. I break it down by players whom I think are possibly on the block, and the teams who will be targeting these players. I also projected what their values could be.
Trend: Look at how many quarterbacks could be on the move, and that really drives the demand down on the third tier of quarterbacks in this draft when you can get a veteran as opposed to a rookie scrub.
Arizona Cardinals: QB Matt Leinart
When you get benched in your second year for Kurt Warner, that isn't a good sign. Leinart would command a third-round draft pick from some team wanting to revive his career. Leinart can fit a West Coast offense, but Arizona doesn't run that so it's a bad fit. Ken Wisenhunt did not draft him, and throughout the season Leinart seemed to be in the doghouse.
If Arizona makes this trade they would likely draft Joe Flacco, Andre Woodson or Chad Henne to provide a big arm for its passing game.
Trade Targets: Tampa, Seattle, Detroit
Atlanta Falcons: QB Joey Harrington
Harrington can be a solid No. 2 or 3 quarterback for some team because he brings experience to the table. Let's look at the talent Harrington had in Atlanta and Detroit, and give him a fair shot. He has been bad, but I think he is better than most second-string quarterbacks. Joey is worth a fifth- or sixth-round draft pick.
Trade Targets: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Green Bay
Carolina Panthers: CB Ken Lucas
This is one of the more shocking players I have in my trade projections, but with Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall being younger and having more upside, Lucas could be the odd man out. He is great in press man schemes, and his ability to be a solid starter gives him a third-round draft value.
Trade Targets: Arizona, Baltimore, Jacksonville, N.Y. Jets, New England, Pittsburgh
Cincinnati Bengals: WR Chad Johnson
This is NOT a Draft Day trade, but it's one I believe will happen down the line. The Bengals take an $8 million cap hit if they trade Ocho prior to June, but after that it could happen.
Dan Snyder has enough disrespect for draft picks (recently offered a trade that was rejected by Cincinnati) to make a crazy deal for Chad. What would have to be on the table in terms of future 2009 Draft picks?
Since the Bengals lose so much, it would have to be the first- and second-round draft picks from Washington. Anything less, and Cincinnati isn't getting their value. I mean, if Deion Branch was worthy of a first-round pick, and Chris Chambers was a second-rounder...
Cincinnati would also probably demand a veteran player in this deal.
Cleveland Browns: QB Derek Anderson
It isn't looking likely that this will happen, but it should because it's the right move. You're going to lose value moving Anderson or Brady Quinn after the 2008 season. Anderson only completed 56 percent of his passes in an offense with an elite amount of talent. I'm not impressed.
Anderson should command a first-round draft pick. Who would be interested? Arizona needs a big-armed quarterback for their receivers. Rumor has it San Francisco offered their first and third for Anderson, so the Browns shouldn't take anything less from them.
Imagine the Browns adding a Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Jonathan Stewart, DeSean Jackson, Jeff Otah or Devin Thomas to their football team.
Brady Quinn was rated as a player worthy of a top 10 draft selection. With all this talent on offense (Braylon Edwards, Donte' Stallworth, Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, Kellen Winslow) he simply can't fail. He even played very well last year in limited time.
Not trading Anderson for a first-round pick is a mistake for this football team.
Dallas Cowboys: LB Bobby Carpenter & DL Marcus Spears
Carpenter hasn't been able to crack the starting lineup, and was a bad fit for the 3-4 defense. I always envisioned him as a 4-3 SAM. Who needs this? Green Bay could add more depth and they don't have many needs to begin with. Houston needs someone else at the strong side next to DeMeco Ryans. The Bengals don't have much here. Bill Parcells drafted Carpenter (his dad played fullback for him with the Giants) and still might be interested. I think he could draw a third- or fourth-round draft pick; his play at Ohio State reminded me of Scott Fujita, and he could revive it.
Marcus Spears has never lived up to his potential in Dallas, like Carpenter.
Let's take a look back at who drafted both these players: Bill Parcells. Before we declare him a football god for all the talent he has drafted, he has missed quite a bit in the draft (must be said in the wake of the Jake Long signing.)
Spears might fit in as a three-technique or a left defensive end in the 4-3. I don't see 3-4 teams taking a chance on him as a five-technique because he has failed in Dallas. Spears gives more value because there is more upside here. A third-round pick is what Spears is projected as.
Detroit Lions: WR Roy Williams
There are a few teams that could really use a possession receiver, and I Williams' services will be welcomed by some team on Draft Day. Roy Williams is the best receiver in this draft, thus a first-round pick should be his asking price. A team like the Rams could give up second- and fourth-round picks for him.
The other team that could be asking for his services are the Dallas Cowboys. They have Terrell Owens, but he and Terry Glenn are getting older. Williams would be a great target for Tony Romo.
The Cowboys can leverage the Lions into just giving up their No. 28 pick. It makes sense for both sides. Calvin Johnson steps into the No. 1 role, and the Lions can address another need for their team in the first round.
Miami Dolphins: DE Jason Taylor
I've been saying for months that this trade will happen, and that's because Taylor offers no value to a team that won't be very good next year. The Dolphins aren't going to the playoffs (doesn't happen from 1-15 to 10-6), so why keep him when he will be 35 in 2009? His speed can end at any time, just like it did to Simeon Rice. If any team gives up a second-round pick for him, the Dolphins are getting away with robbery.
The Jaguars are desperate for end help, and Miami can execute them into some leverage, which is a third-round pick. Meanwhile, because Green Bay doesn't have many needs, they might reach for Taylor and offer a third to win right now. Other teams likely to offer their fourth-round selections are Arizona and Baltimore.
New York Giants: TE Jeremy Shockey
Looks like Shockey is on the trading block, and word is he has drawn the Saints' interest. The Giants are asking for a second rounder, but I think these two teams could settle on a third because of the medical issues.
Philadelphia Eagles: QB Donovan McNabb & CB Lito Sheppard
McNabb certainly doesn't seem to be on the block, but I just don't understand why you would draft a quarterback in the second round and then keep him on the bench. It's a total waste of a draft pick if McNabb isn't traded this year. He could get the Eagles a very valuable second-round pick. Minnesota could really use a veteran quarterback in their offense.
Lito Sheppard will demand a second-round pick. Asante Samuel is a No. 1 corner who can take on any receiver, and Sheldon Brown is a solid opposite corner. The Eagles would also bring in another cornerback in the draft, but the pick could really help the team in the long run.
It happened last year between the Eagles and Cowboys, but I don't see Philly trading Sheppard to a divisional opponent.
Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Baltimore and Arizona could all use a cornerback; the catch here is that Sheppard might want a new contract.
I don't see him getting traded, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Philly use him to move up in the first round to a team like the Bills.
Tampa Bay Buccaeers: QBs Luke McCown and Chris Simms
Two more veteran quarterbacks. McCown was very impressive at times for the Buccaneers (played amazing at New Orleans), but was a bit inconsistent at other times. His value is a fourth- or fifth-round draft pick.
Chris Simms is coming off a spleen injury, but his arm strength is extremely good and he still has the potential to be a starter. His health will scare some teams and he is not in Jon Gruden's plans. A sixth-round pick is a slight reach for Simms, so teams will bait the Bucs into accepting a seventh-rounder. He will be released anyway in the preseason when he doesn't make the team; might as well get something for him.
Teams interested in McCown: Green Bay, Cincinnati, Dallas
Teams interested in Simms: San Francisco, N.Y. Jets, Denver
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