Jacksonville’s AFC Title Case Runs Deeper Than Trevor Lawrence

A 5-2 record has given Jacksonville control of the AFC South. The stronger argument for a championship run lies in how the Jaguars are winning, with Trevor Lawrence finding productive alternatives around him and a defense allowing fewer than 16 points per game. Maintaining that range of options is the next challenge.

Fourteen passing attempts were enough. Against Indianapolis, Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes and watched the closing stages from the sideline. Jacksonville won 42-7, with a running back supplying scores on the ground and through the air. A rookie tight end caught another. The defense contributed a touchdown of its own.

You could watch the quarterback’s highlights and miss much of what made the performance convincing. The Jaguars scored on a 98-yard possession, capitalized on a short field and broke tackles for long gains. There were several routes to the end zone.

Through seven games, Jacksonville averaged 28 points, fifth in the NFL, while conceding 15.9, second. That combination deserves attention beyond a comfortable divisional lead.

A place among the AFC contenders

Sixth in the Week 9 power rankings, the Jaguars have earned a place in the championship discussion. Their +85 scoring differential gives the 5-2 start substance, although January will demand more than reproducing a home rout of Indianapolis.

The futures market reflects those expectations. Stake lists Jacksonville at +425 to win the AFC, ahead of Kansas City at +525, with Buffalo shorter at +275. Those prices put the Jaguars among the conference’s leading challengers and invite a closer examination of the roster behind Lawrence.

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On the field, the reason to examine Jacksonville closely is the help Lawrence can call upon when a defense takes away his preferred option.

Tuten gives the backfield a receiving threat

The most encouraging part of Bhayshul Tuten’s recent production is its variety. He rushed for only 39 yards against Houston, yet caught two touchdown passes. Against Indianapolis, he delivered a career-high 104 rushing yards and added a receiving score.

As Reuters reported in its account of the Colts game, Lawrence finished with 210 passing yards and three touchdowns. Tuten’s 39-yard scoring run helped establish the halftime advantage, while Jonathan Taylor managed just 23 rushing yards for Indianapolis.

That afternoon showed what Jacksonville can do when both sides execute. The season figures also suggest the backfield has room to contribute more. Tuten has 492 rushing yards at 4.5 per carry, with another 181 yards receiving. His six touchdowns are split evenly between those duties.

Behind him, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has 209 rushing yards and three scores at 4.6 per attempt. His presence gives Liam Coen another runner to use without asking Lawrence to manufacture every productive possession.

Strange contributes beyond the catch

A tight end’s receiving total captures only part of his afternoon. Brenton Strange’s opening-drive contribution against Indianapolis was easy to spot: a 46-yard catch-and-run that carried Jacksonville into Colts territory. His involvement in the next touchdown required a closer look.

Strange helped protect Lawrence as the quarterback avoided pressure before finding Nate Boerkircher for a 31-yard score. One player created room for another to finish the play.

Through seven appearances, Strange led Jacksonville with 28 receptions and had gained 334 yards. Parker Washington supplied a different dimension, producing 432 yards and four touchdowns on 27 catches. Lawrence could distribute the ball without needing one receiver to carry the passing attack.

The quarterback’s own efficiency remains essential. His 17 touchdowns against four interceptions and 112.6 passer rating explain why those supporting contributions become dangerous. Protection buys him an opportunity; accurate decisions turn it into points.

The next test is depth

Availability now complicates the picture. Jacksonville’s latest team update before the Baltimore game listed Tuten as a game-time decision with a foot/ankle injury. Travon Walker was also questionable. DaVon Hamilton and Eric Murray are out for the season.

Those absences make replacement production consequential. A defense allowing 3.4 yards per rush must preserve its interior resistance without Hamilton. Rodriguez offers an established alternative if Tuten cannot play, but replacing the starter’s receiving contribution is another assignment.

The third-down figures offer a practical measure of that standard: Jacksonville has converted 41 of 85 attempts, while opponents have managed 28 of 80. Sustaining that gap would give the offense more chances to finish possessions and keep a depleted defense from repeatedly returning to the field. Takeaways have helped too, with a +7 turnover differential. The next few games should reveal how effectively the revised lineup can maintain those advantages.

There is opportunity ahead. The remaining schedule assessment rates Jacksonville’s slate fourth-easiest overall, based on opponent power rankings. Two Tennessee games remain, alongside a trip to Chicago and a return meeting with Houston.

The immediate stretch takes Jacksonville to Baltimore, Tennessee and the Giants before its next home appearance. That run of travel gives the reserves an early examination, with fewer familiar surroundings as they settle into expanded roles.

A favorable route can help secure playoff position. Turning that position into an AFC championship will require the supporting players to keep delivering when opponents force Lawrence to look elsewhere.