Walt
September rarely settles the Super Bowl picture, but it can quickly challenge offseason assumptions. The opening weeks of 2026 have already delivered upsets, comeback victories, defensive statements, and unexpected setbacks for several prominent contenders.
Those results matter because championship expectations evolve once projections meet actual games. Seattle, Arizona, Buffalo, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville have each contributed to that reassessment, showing how quickly the conversation can expand or become more complicated during the season's opening month.
Mariota's Spark Unsettles Seattle's Early Hierarchy
Seattle entered Week 3 unbeaten after defeating New England and Arizona, creating an early impression of stability. Washington ended Seattle’s unbeaten start with a 33-31 victory, scoring more points than the Seahawks had allowed across their first two games combined.
Marcus Mariota provided the catalyst while replacing the injured Jayden Daniels. He threw three touchdown passes as Washington found ways through a Seattle defense that had allowed only 17 points across its opening two games.
Seattle’s defensive results offer useful context when comparing teams favored to win the Super Bowl. Washington scored 33 points after the Seahawks had allowed just 17 across their opening two games, interrupting an encouraging start without establishing a lasting defensive problem.
Seattle then responded by beating the Chargers 30 to 23 on October 4, improving to 3 wins and 1 loss. Arizona had already learned a similar lesson from the opposite direction, starting its season by overturning expectations before running into its own difficulties.
That volatility makes Arizona’s opening statement especially relevant, showing how quickly early expectations can move both ways.
Cardinals' Opening Upset Forces a Credibility Reset
Arizona delivered one of Week 1's notable surprises, traveling to Los Angeles to defeat the Chargers 26-14. The result immediately challenged assumptions surrounding a team that carried modest expectations into the new campaign.
The Cardinals scored in every quarter and finished strong, scoring 10 in the fourth while keeping Los Angeles scoreless in the period. That closing performance turned a competitive game into a convincing road victory.
Yet subsequent results have demonstrated why one September win requires context. Losses to Seattle and San Francisco were followed by a 36 to 24 defeat against the Giants on October 4, leaving Arizona with 1 win and 3 losses.
That distinction is important across the league. Early surprises can force teams into the wider conversation, but repeated performances determine whether they remain there. Buffalo entered Week 4 with considerably stronger evidence before New England delivered another reminder of September's limitations.
Buffalo’s experience would reinforce that lesson, except its reversal came after three victories had strengthened expectations considerably.
Maye's Rally Snaps Buffalo's Unbeaten Narrative
Buffalo reached Week 4 at 3-0 and had climbed to the top of the championship market. New England arrived at 1-2 after suffering a 35-6 defeat against Jacksonville, creating sharply different trajectories entering their AFC East meeting.
Those trajectories collided in a 29-26 Patriots victory. Drake Maye completed 22 of 37 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns, helping New England erase a 26-21 fourth-quarter deficit.
Key NFL matchups and storylines point out that the result carried significance for both sides. Maye responded after throwing six interceptions in his first three games, while Buffalo surrendered its unbeaten record after allowing New England to build the decisive late touchdown drive.
Buffalo remains firmly within the championship discussion, but the defeat introduced another test of its credentials. It also reinforced a broader theme developing across 2026: resilience after falling behind can reveal as much as maintaining an early lead. Los Angeles demonstrated exactly that in Philadelphia.
That ability to answer adversity became equally important elsewhere, particularly when Los Angeles encountered another difficult fourth quarter.
Rams Finish the Comeback in Philadelphia
The Rams entered Philadelphia needing a response after surrendering a 16-point halftime advantage against Denver the previous week. Their next challenge created another deficit, with Philadelphia holding a 20-10 advantage during the fourth quarter.
This time, Los Angeles reversed the pattern. The Rams scored 14 unanswered points and escaped with a 24-20 victory, turning a difficult road position into one of the weekend's most significant comeback wins.
That performance strengthened an important part of their championship case. Contenders will not control every game, particularly against strong opposition. The ability to stay competitive when the initial plan stops working offers another measure beyond records, rankings, or preseason expectations.
The comeback required contributions on both sides of the ball. Kyren Williams scored twice in the fourth quarter, while the defense forced a punt between those touchdowns and stopped Philadelphia’s final possession. Cincinnati’s experience provided the contrasting example, as decisive defensive plays prevented its offense from completing another response.
Jacksonville's Takeaways Outweigh Cincinnati's Yardage
Cincinnati accumulated plenty of offense against Jacksonville, but yardage alone did not determine the outcome. The Jaguars intercepted Joe Burrow twice and secured a 22-17 road win, improving their position in a shifting AFC picture.
Burrow still threw for 428 yards and a touchdown, demonstrating Cincinnati's ability to move the ball. Jacksonville's defense nevertheless produced critical takeaways, including interceptions at significant moments before stopping the Bengals' final possession inside the last minute.
That outcome complicates an offense-led championship argument. Cincinnati can produce big numbers, but turnovers can erase those gains quickly. Through four weeks, a 2-2 record leaves less separation between the Bengals and other AFC teams than preseason expectations suggested.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has strengthened its own case through consecutive victories over New England and Cincinnati. That progression connects to the broader early-season theme: reputations set the starting order, but results keep determining which teams deserve more attention as the schedule develops.
Those contrasting outcomes make October more significant as contenders try to turn early evidence into sustained performance.
October Will Demand Stronger Evidence
October’s games will test whether the problems identified in the opening month persist. Seattle’s scoring prevention, Buffalo’s ability to protect late leads and Cincinnati’s possession outcomes deserve attention across multiple opponents. For the Rams and Jaguars, the next measure is repeating the execution that secured their latest victories.
Content reflects information available as of 2026/10/05; subject to change.
Charlie Campbell
