Draft Kings Locks and Values
Here’s the link to the FREE Entry to Draft Kings Team Pick’em Contest.
By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Posted Oct. 19, 2019.
Of course, “Locks” is a relative term, and in this case, it means that these plays are locks for my Draft Kings cash teams this week. These are plays I feel would be big disappointments if they didn’t pan out, whereas “Values” are plays that are riskier, but the price of the player makes the risk not as impactful due to the savings you get to upgrade to more consistent players, like the ones you’ll find in the “Locks” section!
Locks
DeShaun Watson, QB, Texans ($7,100)
Oakland ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and were just eviscerated by Aaron Rodgers for more than 400 yards passing, four touchdown passes and a touchdown run. Vegas has the Texans scoring 29 points, the second-highest total of the week, while Watson ranks third in the league in fantasy points scored per game. Will Fuller is out, but Kenny Stills already replaced him and did well, so I expect a big game from Watson.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks ($7,200)
If Matt Schaub starts, I don’t love this play as much, but if Matt Ryan gets the nod, I expect this game to have plenty of scoring with Wilson getting a great matchup against a poor Falcons pass defense. On the season, the Falcons have allowed 17 passing touchdowns to just two interceptions and the most fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks.
Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks ($7,000)
Rashaad Penny has taken an extreme backseat to Carson, who has played on 82 percent of Seattle’s snaps over the last four weeks. That kind of usage still gives him value at $7,000, especially with the Seahawks favored this week.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers ($5,900)
With Keenan Allen either out or limited this week, Ekeler should be a strong play against a Bears team that allows the second-most receptions and third-most receiving yards per game to running backs.
Latavius Murray, RB, Saints ($5,800)
Murray’s value depends on Alvin Kamara’s status, but if Kamara can’t go, lock Murray into your cash lineups. His usage last week was great with a lead and against a better defense, he put up big numbers. This week he gets a Cardinals defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans ($8,100)
I don’t know if I’ll spend up for Hopkins this week, but his matchup and recent usage make him a comfortable start in cash games. He still hasn’t had a monster game, but over the last two weeks, he’s seen 24 targets and caught a whopping 18 for 161 yards and a touchdown. The big plays aren’t there, but the Raiders are more than willing to give up big plays, as they’ve given up the second-most yards per reception and second-most fantasy points per reception to wide receivers.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons ($5,600)
If Matt Ryan plays, I love Ridley as a play in the highest over-under game of the week now that Mohamed Sanu is gone. Even if Matt Schaub plays, he has some appeal, but I’d likely use him in GPPs instead of cash games.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions ($6,400)
I picked Golladay last week in many of my DK lineups and he barely saw the ball, while Marvin Jones caught four touchdowns. Jones is good, but Golladay has been the No. 1 receiver all season, not dipping below eight targets until his infinitesimal two last week. The Giants are quite giving to wide receivers and I don’t see the Lions keeping Golladay’s targets down like last week. It’s time to give him his touchdowns.
Value Plays
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins ($5,100)
The Buccaneers have allowed 227/2 to Kyle Allen, 314/4 to Teddy Bridgewater, 517/2/3 to Jared Goff, and 336/2 through the air and 28/2 on the ground to Daniel Jones over the last four games, while Ryan Tannehill put up 312/2/1 against the Chargers in his first start of the year. This should be an easier matchup against the Bucs and at a good price, so I don’t feel as worried about Tannehill’s usual inconsistencies ruining his day.
Ty Johnson, RB, Lions ($4,900)
Johnson saw the bulk of the work after Kerryon Johnson went down and should be in line for a good workload against a bad Giants’ defense which gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs. He’s not a lock by any means, but at his price and matchup, he’s fairly safe.
Sony Michel, RB, Patriots ($5,200)
Michel continues to see big usage near the goal line, which helped him to three touchdowns last week. He is more touchdown dependent that I would like, but the Browns have been awful to opposing running backs, allowing 120 rushing yards and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Texans ($4,700)
The Texans should get a lead in this game which pretty much means we see 20 carries from Hyde. He’s not putting up great efficiency numbers, but his kind of usage at his price is hard to come by and with the second-highest total of the week, there’s a good chance he finds the end zone.
A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, WRs, Titans ($4,100)
Brown led the Titans in targets last week with Ryan Tannehill taking over and caught six passes for 64 yards. This week, he gets a better matchup against a Bucs team that allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Corey Davis also gets a great matchup and put up strong numbers with Ryan Tannehill at the helm, so I’m happy to play either this week and will likely play both in some tournament stacks.
Kenny Stills, WR, Texans ($4,700)
With Will Fuller out early last week, Stills played 94 percent of the snaps and caught four passes for 105 yards. DeAndre Hopkins is my favorite upside receiver play this week, but Stills is my favorite receiver on the slate at his price.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Jets ($3,300)
Thomas leads the Jets in targets over the last three games, but has run into trouble much like the Jets as a whole have. His inefficiency should regress to the mean enough to give you value at his low low price.
Mike Williams, WR, Chargers ($4,000)
Williams has seen 29 targets over the last three games but has yet to break out. This could be the week, as Keenan Allen looks iffy to play and Williams should be a major factor, especially in the red zone.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans ($2,800)
Delanie Walker is out this week, which will boost Smith up in a great matchup, as the Buccaneers allow the second-most tight end receiving yards and fantasy points. Smith also caught all three of his targets for 64 yards last week, in a much tougher matchup.
Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers ($2,870)
Brate has always been a favorite of Jameis Winston, especially in the red zone, so there is hope for him this week with O.J. Howard out. The Titans also rank seventh-worst in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.
Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers ($4,900)
Henry’s price keeps rising but it’s still below $5,000, and he’s topped 97 yards in his first two games back from injury and a strong 8.5 target average. With Keenan Allen hurting, those targets should go up this week, making him a target for your DraftKings team.
Defense and Special Teams
L.A. Rams ($3,800)
I like the Patriots taking on the turnover prone Baker Mayfield this week, but I feel even better with the Rams facing the decimated offensive line of the Bengals, and of course, the not-good Andy Dalton. Aaron Donald may actually end careers this week.
Seattle Seahawks ($2,800)
Playing the Seahawks D/ST is contingent on Matt ‘pick-six’ Schaub starting, for obvious reasons.
L.A. Chargers (2,300)
As long as Mitch Trubisky is starting, I’m OK with starting whomever against them. This week, that’s the Chargers, who have underperformed defensively this season, but still have some strong defensive players and look like they’ll get Melvin Ingram back this week.
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