Darnold won it all in his first year in Seattle. The fantasy models still can’t agree on whether he’s worth drafting in 2026.

The Championship Didn’t Convince Everybody

Sam Darnold led Seattle to a 14-3 regular-season record and a 29-13 win over New England in Super Bowl LX, capping a two-year stretch since leaving Minnesota in which he’s completed 66.9 percent of his throws at 8.2 yards per attempt. RotoBaller currently has him going off the board around QB22, while making the case he could push into the top 12 if he tightens up the turnovers that dogged his 2025 season. That range, a fringe streamer in some models and a real QB1 sleeper in others, is unusually wide for a reigning champion.

“Winning a Super Bowl and being a good fantasy quarterback are two completely different jobs,” an analyst said. “Darnold proved he can manage a team to a title. Whether he can rack up the counting stats fantasy managers actually need is still an open question, and last year’s numbers genuinely support both sides of that argument.”

The Continuity He’s Losing

Part of the uncertainty comes from what Seattle lost this offseason. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who scripted the offense that carried Darnold to the title, left to become the Raiders’ head coach, meaning Darnold has to replicate his best season under a new play-caller. Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III signed with the Chiefs in free agency, and Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL in January, ruling him out for the first half of 2026. Seattle used its first-round pick on Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price to fill the void, but Price profiles as an early-down runner who won’t contribute much as a receiver, which leaves a real gap in the passing-game touches Darnold could previously count on out of the backfield.

Why This Year’s Rankings Need More Than One Look

A single number on a ranking sheet can’t hold two legitimately opposite cases for the same player at once, which is exactly why this year’s fantasy football rankings are worth checking against more than one source before a draft. RotoWire, the premium fantasy sports and sports betting data platform, updates its numbers as training camp reports roll in, which matters more for a situation this unsettled than it does for a player nearly everyone already agrees on.

“I drafted Darnold late last year and it worked out,” a fan said. “But I’m not assuming lightning strikes twice with a new play-caller and no Kenneth Walker drawing safeties into the box. I want to see the offense actually function before I commit a pick to him again.”

The Receiving Corps Has Its Own Questions

Jaxon Smith-Njigba won Offensive Player of the Year on the strength of Kubiak’s scheming, so some regression is plausible even with Smith-Njigba’s talent unquestioned. He’s the one clear building block in this passing game regardless of who calls the plays, but even a modest step back from an Offensive Player of the Year season would change the math on Darnold’s supporting cast. Cooper Kupp is expected to decline further with age, and CBS Sports’ advanced model flagged Darnold as a player to avoid given Seattle’s run-heavy offense, which ranked third in rushing attempts and just 29th in pass attempts last season. Rashid Shaheed is the name worth watching in that mix: he posted real numbers in New Orleans before an underwhelming first year in Seattle, and a full offseason building chemistry with Darnold could be the difference between a forgotten depth piece and a legitimate breakout.

The offensive line, at least, still offers some real stability the passing game can lean on. Second-year guard Grey Zabel had a strong rookie season, and both starting tackles graded well enough that pass protection shouldn’t be the excuse if Darnold’s numbers dip. That kind of stability, and the rest of Seattle’s roster construction, get their own deep dive in the site’s 2026 Seahawks season preview, alongside the defense and this year’s full draft class. That’s one fewer variable working against Darnold compared to the coaching change and the backfield turnover, even if it isn’t enough by itself to settle the larger argument.

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