Why Casual Bettors Miscalculate Variance in the NFL Playoffs and College Football Playoff
Bettors who make money on regular-season NFL and college football markets often lose that edge the moment the postseason starts. The reason isn’t a sudden drop in skill. It’s that single-elimination tournaments run on different statistical rules than an 18-week schedule, and most bettors keep using regular-season logic to price games that no longer…
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