It’s time for our annual KY Derby selections and commentary. We were pretty dead on last year, hitting many horses that finished in-the-money in the Triple Crown Races (especially Price’s picks).
First, we’ll start off with an updated table of past Derby winners, their speed ratings and final tune-up race. Our analysis of past data indicates that horses with strong 100+ speed ratings in prep races have a better probability of winning the big race.
Derby Winner |
BRIS Speed Rating |
Last race (# weeks before Derby) |
| I’LL HAVE ANOTHER | 95, 102 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| ANIMAL KINGDOM | 100, 89 | Turfway Spiral (5 weeks, poly) |
| SUPER SAVER | 92, 94 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| MINE THAT BIRD | 96, 98 | Sunland Derby (5 weeks) |
| BIG BROWN | 106, 104 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| STREET SENSE | 98, 101 | Bluegrass Stakes (3 weeks, poly) |
| BARBARO | 104, 104, 97, 97 | Florida Derby (5 weeks) |
| GIACOMO | 100, 96, 98, 96 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SMARTY JONES | 105, 109, 101, 103 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| FUNNY CIDE | 111, 103, 97 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| WAR EMBLEM | 109, 105, 88, 94 | Illinois Derby (4 weeks) |
| MONARCHOS | 108, 108, 106, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| FUSAICHI PEGASUS | 110, 103, 100, 98 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| CHARISMATIC | 104, 94, 94, 94 | Lexington (2 weeks) |
| REAL QUIET | 107, 103, 73 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| SILVER CHARM | 102, 98, 105 | Santa Anita Derby (4 weeks) |
| GRINDSTONE | 101, 102, 93 | Arkansas Derby (3 weeks) |
| THUNDER GULCH | 98, 103, 106 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| GO FOR GIN | 104, 105, 99, 100 | Wood Memorial (3 weeks) |
| SEA HERO | 96, 85, 77 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| LIL E. TEE | 102, 96, 107, 100 | Arkansas Derby (2 weeks) |
| STRIKE THE GOLD | 109, 100, 99, 87 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
| UNBRIDLED | 108, 101, 104, 98 | Blue Grass (3 weeks) |
Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com:
The big wild card in the 2013 Run for the Roses will be the weather, as forecasts show an 80% chance of rain on Saturday in Louisville. If it is muddy on the track, I like to put a little backup money on the long shots of 33-1 or higher, which can save the day if the wet track muddies the current form.
My favorite in this year’s race is Verrazano (Post Position 14, 4-1 odds). He’s the second choice behind new darling Orb, but I like Verrazano’s consistency, as he is the only horse not just two, but here three straight speed ratings over 100. So I will key most of my bets around him.
The Derby usually favors closers and horses that want the extra ground. On that note, here’s my top challengers to Verrazano:
Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1): Closing fast on Verrazano at the end of the Wood Memorial, Normandy Invasion has also posted impressive workouts lately. The profile reminds me of the similar setup when I picked Funny Cide to win the Derby. Must use this one for exotics and saver win bets.
Revolutionary (PP 3. 10-1): Responded gamely to come back to win the Louisiana Derby. I like his heart.
Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1): It’s hard to look past an undefeated colt with good speed. Breaking from the far outside is not harmful in a large field, the question is if he has staying power.
So my theoretical bets on a sample $100 model portfolio look like this:
$20 Win on 14
$10 Win on 5
$5 Exacta box 5,14
$5 Exacta box 14,20
$5 Exacta box 3,14
$1 Trifecta 14 with 5 with ALL
$1 Trifecta 5 with 14 with ALL
Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager & Analyst:
The 3-year-old horses in this race haven’t gone such a long distance before with such a large field. With the expected rain, it will be the tough horses with heart that will emerge – those that can run off the pace and/or closers. Therefore, I threw out what looks like the speed horses that are likely to fade late or get swallowed up by the pack – one of those wire-to-wire horses may end up proving it can run off the pace, but I’d rather select ones that have already proven they can.
Here’s my projected Top 4 finishers:
Revolutionary (PP 3, 10-1)
Java’s War (PP 19, 15-1)
Orb (PP 16, 7-2)
Normandy Invasion (PP 5, 12-1)
Live Longshots that can also hit the board (meaning top 4):
Vyjack (PP 20, 15-1)
Itsmyluckyday (PP 12, 15-1)
I think any of these 4 can win it, so I would be looking to do some Exacta and Trifecta boxes:
Theoretical bets:
$2 Exacta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
$1 Trifecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5) = $24
$0.10 Superfecta Box (3, 19, 16, 5, 20, 12) = $36
$0.10 Superfecta Box (16, 5, 15, 12, 14, 8) = $36
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