April 29, 2017
I’ll be posting 2017 NFL Draft Grades for every pick. Why not grade all of the trades?
Patriots acquire TE James O’Shaughnessy, No. 216 (6th) from Chiefs for Nos. 183 (5th)
These teams swapped compensatory picks in the fifth and sixth rounds for the Patriots to acquire James O’Shaughnessy. Is O’Shaughnessy worth a whole round in the middle of Day 3? Well, he had just two catches for minus-1 yard last year, but was a better blocker than receiver (albeit, by default). He was a good athlete coming out of Illinois State, so there’s some upside.
I would be OK with this for the Patriots, but there are still solid tight ends available, so I’m not sure about this deal. I think the Chiefs won this swap, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that O’Shaughnessy becomes a decent role player for New England.
Grade for Patriots – C+
Grade for Chiefs – B
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49ers acquire No. 104 overall pick from Vikings for Nos. 109 (4th), 219 (7th)
The Vikings are leaking value all over the place. They gave up 10 points on the value chart in this trade, but obtained just 3.8 points in return. Moving down five spots at this point isn’t a huge deal, but percentage-wise, they keep getting crushed.
That said, the 49ers were the real losers of this trade. They gave up a resource for C.J. Beathard, a late-round pick whose ceiling is to be a middling No. 2 quarterback in the NFL. I’m not sure why San Francisco pulled the trigger on Beathard. John Lynch has had a great draft thus far, but this is his first real blunder. No one’s perfect, I guess.
Grade for 49ers – D
Grade for Vikings – C-
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Chiefs acquire No. 86 overall pick from Vikings for Nos. 104 (3rd), 132 (4th), 245 (7th)
This was a lopsided deal as far as the trade value chart is concerned. The Vikings surrendered 74 points by moving from 86 to 104, yet they obtained just 40 points in return. Kansas City received great value in this swap, despite moving up 18 spots.
I also like the player the Chiefs selected. Kareem Hunt fit the range in the third round, and he seems perfect for Andy Reid’s offense. There was a decent chance he would’ve been off the board by No. 104, so this was an excellent deal for the Chiefs.
As for the Vikings, they moved up twice beforehand, so I don’t blame them for adding more resources. They moved down once again with the pick they acquired, obtaining a seventh-round selection in the process. I won’t grade this too harshly for them, but Minnesota should’ve gotten more in return from Kansas City.
Grade for Chiefs – A+
Grade for Vikings – C-
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Vikings acquire No. 70 overall pick from Jets for Nos. 79 (3rd), 160 (5th)
The Vikings won this trade by a wide margin, percentage-wise. The Jets surrendered 45 points by moving down nine spots in the third round, but they received only 27.4 in return.
As for the actual players, Minnesota moved up for Dalvin Cook in the second round, which I thought was a great move. However, this one was sketchy. Pat Elflein was a third-day prospect, and there was a good chance he could’ve been available at No. 79. Perhaps the Ravens could’ve taken him with one of their two picks (74, 78), but probably not. I don’t like moving up in this instance, though the grade isn’t horrible because of the win per the trade value chart.
The Jets took ArDarius Stewart with the 79th pick, so at least they got something for moving down. They should’ve received more, but if they were targeting Stewart, they did a decent job of at least picking up another resource.
Grade for Vikings – C+
Grade for Jets – B-
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Saints acquire No. 67 overall pick from 49ers for Nos. 229 (7th), 2018 2nd-rounder
A third-round pick in the present year is worth about the same as a second-rounder in the next draft, apparently, so this is even per the trade value chart. There was also one player involved, so this is a weird trade to grade. It’s also a strange pick.
New Orleans grabbed Alvin Kamara, who should’ve gone early in the second round. However, the Saints needed defense rather than another running back, so dealing a future second-round selection for a player who doesn’t fill one of the top positions of need is pretty dubious. Still, Kamara is a very good prospect, so I’m conflicted with this grade.
Grade for Saints – B-
Grade for 49ers – B+
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Bills acquire No. 63 overall pick from Falcons for Nos. 75 (3rd), 149 (5th) and 156 (5th)
This trade was close to even on the trade chart, with the Falcons edging Buffalo out slightly. So, let’s look at the players involved. Buffalo moved up for Dion Dawkins to presumably fill their need at tackle. Dawkins was a Round 2-3 prospect, so there was a legitimate chance he could have been taken off the board prior to No. 75 overall. It’s slim pickings for offensive linemen, so I don’t blame Buffalo for moving up. The Falcons, meanwhile, obtained Duke Riley with the 75th pick. Riley may have been a slight reach at No. 63.
Forgive me for being wishy-washy here, but I think this was an even deal for both teams. It was logical for both sides.
Grade for Bills – B+
Grade for Falcons – B+
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Vikings acquire No. 41 overall pick from Bengals for Nos. 48 (2nd) and 128 (4th)
The Bengals usually don’t trade in the draft, so that might be a reason why they got ripped off. They surrendered 70 points by moving from No. 41 to 48, yet were given just 44 points in return by acquiring No. 128.
On top of winning per the trade value chart, the Vikings were able to obtain a huge steal in the middle of the second round by selecting Dalvin Cook. They had to move past numerous teams in need of a running back, so this was a great deal. The Bengals also obtained a talented runner in Joe Mixon, but deserve a lesser grade for not getting enough value in the trade.
Grade for Vikings – A+
Grade for Bengals – C
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Bills acquire No. 37 overall pick and No. 149 (5th) from Rams for Nos. 44 (2nd) and 91 (3rd)
Despite the Rams’ incompetence, they won this trade by about 30 points. Getting an extra third in exchange for a fifth, just for moving down seven spots is pretty significant.
Unfortunately for the Rams, they dealt the pick to a team that selected a player who would’ve made so much sense for them. The Rams probably should’ve remained at No. 37 and selected Zay Jones. Instead, they had to settle for a third-round tight end at No. 44.
As for the Bills, they paid a steep price to move up, but they managed to add a talented receiver to complement Sammy Watkins. However, the scuttlebutt is that Buffalo will decline Watkins’ fifth-year option as a result, which seems like a mistake.
Grade for Bills – C
Grade for Rams – C
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Cardinals acquire No. 36 overall pick and No. 221 (7th) from Bears for Nos. 45 (2nd), 119 (4th), 197 (6th), 2018 4th-rounder
For this trade to be fair for Chicago, the 2018 fourth-round pick has to be worth 35 points. That’s probably about right, so I’d say this deal was even on the trade value chart.
But what actually happened? Arizona moved up for Budda Baker, a very talented safety who filled a need. However, there were going to be plenty of skilled safeties available at No. 45, so I don’t think the Cardinals should’ve given up resources to acquire Baker. For all they know, he could’ve fallen nine more picks. The Bears, meanwhile, reached for a third-day tight end in Adam Shaheen. In moving down, Chicago missed out on several players who could’ve helped them, such as Zay Jones, Marcus Maye, Curtis Samuel, Marcus Williams, Sidney Jones, and Baker himself.
Arizona wins this deal by default. I have no idea what in the world the Bears are doing.
Grade for Cardinals – B-
Grade for Bears – D
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Jaguars acquire No. 34 overall pick from Seahawks for Nos. 35 (2nd) and 187 (6th)
The Seahawks actually won this trade by obtaining 66 percent of the value of the difference between Nos. 34 and 35. Granted, that’s 6.6 points out of 10, but still. Seattle’s front office has done a great job of acquiring so many assets, netting third-, fourth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks, just for moving down nine spots.
Though the Seahawks won this deal per the trade value chart, the Jaguars did well to make sure they snatched up Cam Robinson. They were desperate for offensive tackle help, and they obtained someone who was under consideration at No. 16 overall. A sixth-round selection is a small price to pay for security.
Grade for Jaguars – A-
Grade for Seahawks – A
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49ers acquire No. 31 overall pick from Seahawks for Nos. 34 (2nd) and 111 (4th)
When you make a trade with a divisional rival, you better make sure you don’t lose the deal by a wide margin. Unfortunately for the 49ers, that’s exactly what happened, at least according to the trade value chart. Seattle gave up 40 points by moving from 31 to 34, yet acquired 72 points by obtaining the No. 111 selection. That’s a major steal.
That said, the 49ers did well to acquire a player who was once widely projected to go in the top 10. Reuben Foster has numerous things wrong with him, but he’s a special talent and could end up being a dynamic play-maker for San Francisco. It’s very worrisome that smart front offices passed on him, but there’s a good chance this could work out well for the 49ers.
However, the Seahawks won this trade by the sheer value they acquired. Seattle actually had a great first day of the draft despite not selecting anyone. The team picked up third-, fourth- and a seventh-round picks just by moving from 26 to 34. They’ll still be able to acquire the players they were targeting at No. 26 in the second round, and now they have more resources to bolster their roster.
Grade for 49ers – B+
Grade for Seahawks – A+
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Browns acquire No. 29 overall pick from Packers for Nos. 33 (2nd) and 108 (4th)
The Packers won this deal per the NFL Trade Value Chart. The No. 108 pick is worth 78 points, yet they gave up just 60 by moving down from 29 to 33. The difference is 30 percent of the original value, making this quite a steal.
By moving down, the Packers missed out on David Njoku, T.J. Watt, Reuben Foster and Ryan Ramczyk. Of those four, Watt and Foster made sense for them from a needs perspective. However, there are some major things wrong with Foster, while Watt was one of a bunch of talented edge rushers available. The Packers did extremely well by moving down, and they’re also in a prime trading position by owning the first pick on Day 2.
Cleveland gave up value by moving up for Njoku. The Miami tight end could be a solid play-maker for them, however, and I imagine that the Browns were very scared of the rival Steelers landing him. Plus, Cleveland has so many selections, so it can afford to give up a resource to obtain someone it coveted.
Grade for Browns – B
Grade for Packers – A
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Falcons acquire No. 26 overall pick from Seahawks for Nos. 31 (1st), 95 (3rd) and 249 (7th)
The Seahawks actually won this trade per the value chart by 20 points. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s 20 percent of the value of moving from No. 31 to 26 (100 points). So, they’re the clear victors in this deal from that perspective.
As far as the personnel, Seattle got the upper hand as well. The Seahawks wanted Garett Bolles, but the Broncos plucked him off the board at No. 20. Seattle’s other preferred prospects all made it to No. 31, so the team did well to pick up a third-round choice to move down.
The Falcons, meanwhile, had to leap the Cowboys for Takkarist McKinley. However, with so many talented edge rushers available, why give up a significant resource? Sure, they would’ve missed out on McKinley, but they could’ve potentially obtained Taco Charlton, T.J. Watt, Jordan Willis, Tyus Bowser or Derek Rivers at No. 31. There was no reason to panic.
Grade for Falcons – C-
Grade for Seahawks – A
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Texans acquire No. 12 overall pick from Browns for Nos. 25 (1st), 2018 first-rounder
The Texans made a panic move, as I stated in my NFL Draft Grades page. They thought they could obtain Pat Mahomes later, so they had to pull the trigger on Deshaun Watson. I discussed Watson and how some teams see him as a third-round prospect via that link, but I’ll focus more on the actual trade here.
Given that the Texans were panicking, I’m surprised that they didn’t give up more in this deal. It’s actually about even per the trade value chart. So, that’s at least a silver lining.
However, the Browns definitely won this trade. Obtaining a second opening-round selection for the second year in a row is huge, especially considering that there’s a decent chance it’ll be in the top 20. The Titans are expected to make a deep run into the playoffs, so it’s unlikely that Houston will be picking at 21 or later again. Given that the 2018 NFL Draft class looks very promising, Cleveland will have a great opportunity to add some terrific talent to its roster.
Grade for Texans – C
Grade for Browns – A
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Chiefs acquire No. 10 overall pick from Bills for Nos. 27 (1st), 91 (3rd), 2018 first-rounder
Of the three teams that moved up for quarterbacks, the Chiefs obtained the best quarterback prospect. Pat Mahomes still needs work, but he has tremendous upside and should be able to become a quality starter. More importantly, he has no limitations, unlike Alex Smith. Kansas City will finally be able to move on from Smith after this season, and Mahomes will be able to give them a chance of actually advancing deep into the playoffs.
I like the idea of getting Mahomes, but giving up a first-round prospect is a bit too costly in my book. The 2018 NFL Draft class looks like a great one. I’ve heard the argument that the Chiefs will likely be choosing in the 20s, and while that’s true, it’s not a guarantee. Look at the Bengals. They were a perennial playoff team prior to 2016, and yet they had the ninth-overall selection this April because many of their key players were hurt. If the Chiefs sustain lots of injuries, and the Bills get a top-10 selection out of this, they will have won this trade easily.
That said, I’m not going to grade the Chiefs poorly. I understand why they did the deal, and it certainly could work out. I’m giving the Bills a decent edge, however, as there is a ton of upside here. Potentially having two top-15 choices in a great class will help rebuild the franchise.
Grade for Chiefs – C+
Grade for Bills – A-
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Bears acquire No. 2 overall pick from 49ers for Nos. 3 (1st), 67 (3rd), 111 (4th) and 2018 third-rounder
This trade was about equal in terms of points, so from that perspective, it was even. However, there’s more to a draft deal than that, and part of it involves whom the team moved up for. Acquiring Mitchell Trubisky at No. 2 overall would’ve been a reach, but when you factor in that Chicago traded up for him, it’s just horrible. It echoes what the Jaguars have done this decade, taking Blaine Gabbert over J.J. Watt or Blake Bortles over Khalil Mack. Except the Bears, unlike the Jaguars, trading resources to do so! Chicago could’ve used Solomon Thomas and probably should’ve taken him in a trade up. There’s a much greater chance Thomas will make more Pro Bowls than Trubisky and his 13 collegiate starts.
The 49ers obviously won this trade. They moved down and acquired three valuable picks, only to select the player they were originally targeting in the first place. They deserve an easy A+, as John Lynch did a great job of scamming the Bears by leaking bogus rumors that someone else was going to move up for the North Carolina signal-caller. Dumb teams do dumb things, and Lynch did a terrific job of recognizing that.
Grade for Bears – D
Grade for 49ers – A+
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