New Mock, Version 5.0

Indiana

This is going to be Mendoza, without question, even though Kirk Cousins is likely to start for at least the first few games.

Texas Tech

In my very first mock, I had Bailey here, with the logic that this regime may need to show results this year and might not have the luxury of waiting on Reese to develop. Then Jets beat writers seemed to think that Reese would be the guy, and betting markets followed, as Reese had been a solid -250 or so for most of the last month. Well, this week, all three of Peter Schrager, Daniel Jeremiah, and Albert Breer have either reported or stated that they think Bailey will be the pick. The markets have finally reacted, with Bailey the new betting favorite, although it's neck-and-neck between the two. I'm going to go back to my original logic now.

Ohio State

If Reese is there, perhaps Mr. Bitter's point that uber-athletic tweeners are destined to land with the Cardinals will come true after all. Yes, Mauigoa or Fano could be logical if the team decides that it must address its OL, which has no long-term building blocks apart from LT Paris Johnson. Maybe another team wants to trade up for Reese and Arizona finds value in trading down. We've seen Monti Ossenfort do it before. But I'll guess that the team stands pat if Reese is there. Another reason that Arizona might go with Reese or Bailey is that the team has had both in on Top 30's, but none of the presumed top tackles that might go in the top half of the round. Max Iheanaschor was in on a Top 30, but it's possible he could be there at #34.

Notre Dame

If the Titans are all-in on improving Cam Ward's chances of having a functional offense in his second year, then perhaps Love could get the call. Part of me — OK, a lot of me — just can't get over the idea that a RB could go this high, not to a rebuilding team. How many times do we have to see that it doesn't work out for the team, in terms of resulting in wins? As such, if Bailey is available, and with new coach Robert Saleh a defensive guy, I think he would be the guy. However, if Reese and Bailey happen to go at 2 and 3 in some order, as has happened here, then it likely comes down to Love or Styles, and my guess would be that Love is the pick in that scenario, even though Styles could be a Fred Warner of sorts in Saleh's defense.

Ohio State

Beat writers have connected the team to Styles and Downs. For me, not only does Styles impact stopping the run more, but he's less likely to fall in the draft than Downs is, since Downs is not an imposing athlete. Styles most certainly is. Maybe Love is a consideration here if available, and Mauigoa or Fano make sense too, given the Harbaugh DNA of wanting brawn up front. In the end? I'm going with Styles.

Ohio State

Along with Arizona at #3, the Browns are another team to watch out for in a trade down. Having said that, the smart money is on this being a choice between Tate and Monroe Freeling, since the other top OL's in this draft are not pure LT's, which is what the Browns are looking for if they go OL. I will give the edge to Tate, even if he doesn't profile as a draft's typical WR1 due to a 4.50+ 40 time and less than imposing size. Still, it's tough to overlook how successful Ohio St. WR's have been in the NFL recently.

Miami

TRADE! Washington trades #7 and #147 to Baltimore for #14 and #45.

I believe that Love will be atop Washington's board of realistic selections, so if he's there, he's the pick. If he's gone, I think Styles could be next up for them. If both of those guys are gone, then it could come down to the CB1 (Delane or McCoy), Bain, or possibly Tate if available. This could also be a trade-down spot for Adam Peters, as Washington is currently without 2nd and 4th Round picks. I will note that Washington has not met with a single edge rusher on a Top 30, but has met with some of the top WR's, Styles, and Delane.

Here I will project the first trade of the draft, with Baltimore coming up to get what it may feel is a perfect fit on the right side of its OL in Mauigoa. Washington recoups a 2nd rounder here.

Miami

In thinking about this pick, I've been swayed by Nick Underhill, the outstanding beat reporter for the team who is very reliable with his information. While I originally thought that Mickey Loomis' history of preferring lengthy edge players would rule out Bain, Underhill specifically said that would not be the case and that he is under consideration for the pick. This gives me the sense that they are quite high on him, if they are willing to eschew their usual preference. And while Delane or McCoy (whichever one is available, if not both) certainly make sense as well, Underhill's little tidbit of info has done enough to change my pick.

Utah

Schrager and Jeremiah had a fun exercise where they went through the 1st Round and mocked picks for each team, with Schrager taking the odd numbers and Jeremiah taking the even numbers. Well, to say that KC fans were displeased with Schrager's pick of Fano here is an understatement, as the team would appear to have serious needs at CB, edge rusher, WR, TE, and possibly safety as well. But when I think about the possibility of Fano here, it's not as farfetched as I first thought it was. For one thing, Steve Spagnuolu seems to be able to handle his side of the ball pretty well, even if some reinforcements are needed. For another, this offense in particular has gotten ordinary, and the OL wasn't the same last season after losing Joe Thuney. Kingsley Suamataia was an average LG, and Jawaan Taylor was a poor RT. Taylor has since departed, but Jaylon Moore, who was paid last offseason on a 2-year deal and who is the expected replacement for Taylor, was a below-average swing tackle last season. Fano's versatility could be welcomed, as he might be a better RT than Moore or a better guard than Suamataia. Finally, Fano just played for Kyle Whittingham at Utah (Whittingham is now the Michigan head coach, of course), and Whittingham and Andy Reid are close friends who have a relationship that goes back 4 decades. I think this was pointed out by Schrager, and I dismissed it at the time. I like the dot-connecting.

LSU

In coming to a conclusion on this pick, I will first rule out Downs, even though he is the most commonly mocked player to the Bengals. I don't believe he fits the typical Duke Tobin RAS requirement for early selections. Delane or McCoy would check the RAS box, but perhaps quietly, Dax Hill and DJ Turner played well last season for the club. Bain, even if available, would not check the RAS box, and I'm not sure that any other edge player is worth picking in this spot. Styles certainly fits the bill, but I expect him to be long gone by this time. Despite the relative success of Hill and Turner last season, adding Delane could turn the secondary into an actual strength next season, where it has been a disaster for most of the past 2-3 seasons. One of Hill or Turner could end up playing a lot of nickel.

Tennessee

New coach Jeff Hafley is a former DB's coach, and of course was the DC of the Packers last season before getting this new gig. If McCoy really is in contention with Delane as the CB1, this pick makes all sorts of sense, especially since this new regime is likely to adopt a Packers-like approach with an emphasis on RAS with early picks. The Packers have also drafted OL quite frequently over the past decade or so, and as such, both Fano and Mauigoa could be in play if available, likely in that order.

Ohio State

The O/U on Downs is 9.5, and the juice has moved heavily to the over, at -360. As I've said repeatedly, safeties usually fall further in the draft than the public expects, and Downs happens to be undersized and not a freak athlete. If available, he makes total sense for a Dallas team that needs all the talent it can find in the secondary. My guess would be that Bland goes back to playing on the boundary, making Shavon Revel a depth piece, and Downs essentially functions as the nickel or third safety. It's also nice that Downs was in on a Top 30, because Dallas usually meets in person with its eventual 1st Round pick, as it did last year with Tyler Booker.

USC

WR should be the heavy favorite for this pick, and although I think it could be a choice between Lemon and Tyson, Josh Norris has thrown a mock curveball by placing Concepcion here. I have to admit that Concepcion would be a lot of fun in a Sean McVay offense, as a potential home run-hitting slot guy with breakaway speed and as a guy that you can scheme touches for, put in motion a ton, etc. I honestly wonder if the Rams could try to move down and still try to get Concepcion; maybe a team wants to come up for one of the OL's still left. In any case, for now I'll stick with the high-floor Lemon, as the Rams are all-in for 2026 and Lemon may make the most immediate impact.

Arizona State

TRADE! (See #7 for details.)

I mentioned this on the blurb at #7, but Washington has met with every WR that is a likely 1st Round pick, with the exception of Concepcion, on Top 30's. This includes Tyson, and with Terry McLaurin in the final year of his deal and with Jayden Daniels having started his college career at ASU, perhaps there's some connection here.

Georgia

TRADE! Tampa Bay trades #15 and #77 to Cleveland for #24 and #39.

The Browns see that Freeling, possibly their highest-rated OL this year because of his LT projectability, is still sitting there. So they come up 9 spots to ensure that they nab him. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay may have been looking at edge rushers like Keldric Faulk here, and they may reason that he is in a similar tier as 3 or 4 other players. As such, why not move down to 24 and then move from 77 all the way up to the early 2nd Round at 39?

Penn State

Another 1st Round OL from Penn State, Ioane could replace Alijah Vera-Tucker at a guard spot, as Dylan Parham (signed from the Raiders) should not be considered a long-term solution.

Alabama

This had already been my pick in my previous mock, but I feel even more emboldened now. When Schrager mocked Proctor here, Jeremiah noted that he was told that Proctor will not get past the Lions with this pick. The big man is what the Lions love in their tackles, big masses of powerful humanity, ha. And this one is agile, too.

Oregon

This is the chalk pick, at this point, but if Harrison Smith is retiring, well, yeah, here's another highly-athletic white safety to replace him. I know, I know. Boring.

Oregon

As the team has made a couple of big-ticket additions on defense with Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, I could see this pick being an offensive weapon. To be specific, there's a YAC element that's seriously missing in this offense, and the team is committed to Bryce Young's success. Young operates best as a point guard-type who can get the ball to playmakers in space. To me this could come down to Sadiq or KC Concepcion, and I'm going to opt for the freakishly-athletic TE in Sadiq here.

Georgia

I had Akheem Mesidor here in my last mock and I still think that makes a lot of sense, as he is pro-ready and contenders in the back half of Round 1 are more likely to look at him, since he just turned 25. But as I take a closer look at Dallas' defensive depth chart, there is almost nothing behind DeMarvion Overshown at LB, and last year's MLB, Kenneth Murray (who is a free agent), was literally THE worst LB among all 88 who qualified according to PFF. So this is a massive need, and while it's possible that a veteran free agent (Bobby Wagner?) could be signed after the draft, why not get young at the position and get a leader like Allen? We've seen Dallas pick a LB in the 1st Round twice since 2018, with Leighton Vander Esch and Micah Parsons, though Parsons was turned into an edge rusher pretty quickly. I know this is well ahead of consensus for Allen, but we saw them do the same thing last year with Booker, and that filled a clear need, and that has worked out pretty well. Sometimes there's nothing wrong with taking a high-floor player in the draft that fills a need. And this need is DIRE, folks.

Texas A&M

Concepcion would be a great complement to bigger perimeter receivers DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr., and a threat to house any touch. The draft is in Pittsburgh, of course, so maybe they are ready to do for their fans what the Packers did last year when the draft was in Green Bay: take a 1st Round WR for the first time in eons!

Utah

Lomu would offer two things: an upgrade on Trevor Penning at a guard spot, and tackle insurance if something happens again to Slater or Alt. The team has met with him on a Top 30 as well.

Arizona State

With Concepcion unlikely because of his status as a slot receiver, I feel like a bigger receiver would be more likely to essentially replace AJ Brown. Denzel Boston could be a possibility for sure, but the team didn't meet with him, and I continue to believe that he goes in the 2nd Round. Instead, how about the next uber-athletic Eagles OT? The team did meet with him on a Top 30, and I could see Howie Roseman going for his upside over someone like Blake Miller.

Central Florida

TRADE! (See #15 for details.)

There he is! Finally in the player queue, Lawrence's historic RAS and solid production from his final college season should land him in Round 1. Jason Licht loves toolsy, lengthy pass rushers, and his most common 1st Round picks are DL and OL. Here's another one.

Toledo

McNeil-Warren gets back into the 1st Round of my mock here, as Chicago still has a need at safety.

Ohio State

Buffalo's run defense was an abomination last season. McDonald is probably the best pure run-stuffing DT in this class, and in a relatively weak class of them (especially with Caleb Banks' foot problems), perhaps Buffalo goes for the immediate help against the run here.

Indiana

For a contender, the 49ers have a slew of needs at different positions. One of those positions is WR, where Brandon Aiyuk will not be back, where Ricky Pearsall has struggled to stay healthy, and where the Deebo Samuel-like YAC ability has been missing from this offense. Yes, Mike Evans was brought in, but he's not a long-term piece. The team has had Concepcion, Cooper, and Boston in on Top 30's, and those first two would help with that YAC element. Concepcion is gone, so Cooper is a good fit instead.

Clemson

This team has very few roster holes, as a direct contrast from the 49ers. That said, the OL makeover this offseason still hasn't left that unit settled as far as long-term solutions are concerned. We know that Nick Caserio favors experience with his picks. If OL is the pick, that should favor Miller over, say, Max Iheanaschor. If Miller proves to be the best RT on the roster, it could allow the team to use free agent signee Braden Smith at a guard spot.

Tennessee

Next up on KC's wish list could be a CB, so perhaps the rangy Hood could fit the bill late in the 1st frame here.

Clemson

Parker's 9.33 RAS is in line with what I believe this new regime will look for, and it's another defensive piece for Hafley to work with.

Auburn

Faulk has slipped almost out of the 1st Round here, so I think this is a good value for the Pats.

San Diego State

Johnson's RAS is 57th-best among CB's since 1987, and Seattle is favored to take a CB with its first pick.