Unlike other years, when there have been some clear-cut high first-round quarterback prospects, the 2026 class has been very fluid for the top signal-callers. There have been a lot of projected top quarterback prospects, including Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Alabama’s Ty Simpson, Oregon’s Dante Moore, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, and Oklahoma’s John Mateer. In the NIL world, where quarterbacks can make many millions to return to school, it has been unclear which of these quarterbacks might make the jump to the NFL. In speaking with team sources, they are hearing that Simpson is going to enter the 2026 NFL Draft and Mateer is likely to return to Oklahoma next year.
After their Week 1 loss to Florida State, Alabama has not lost, and Simpson has been dominating the SEC. Simpson has completed 67 percent of his passes for 2,461 yards with 21 touchdowns, an interception, and two rushing touchdowns. He has also led them to some impressive wins over four teams ranked in the top-16, including Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. NFL scouts who have been through Tuscaloosa recently say they heard from the Alabama staff that Simpson was leaning towards entering the draft.
Mateer had a superb start to the season before a thumb injury on his throwing hand required surgery. Mateer rushed back and has not been the same since. This season, Mateer has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,949 yards with eight touchdowns, seven interceptions, and six rushing touchdowns. NFL team sources say they are hearing that Mateer is inclined to go back to Oklahoma next season and put together a season that is more consistent with his 2024 campaign, when he completed 65 percent of his passes for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions with Washington State.
Of course, a lot could change in the final two months before players have the deadline to declare. Programs could increase their NIL offers, or other schools could induce them to transfer with big NIL contracts, or schools could push players out, and they decide to enter the draft. All of that is still possible with Simpson and Mateer. Injuries and other prospects going back or declaring can influence decisions. Currently, I have Simpson as one of the first players off the board in my latest 2026 NFL Mock Draft. Right now, team sources say they are hearing Simpson is likely to enter the draft, and Mateer is inclined to return to Oklahoma.
