NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams: Week 17

I’ve posted overrated and underrated NFL teams on my NFL Picks page for a while, but I thought it deserved its own section. I’ll update this page every week during the season as well as periodically during the offseason. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Updated Dec. 22, 2025

NFL Overrated Teams:

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were the hipster pick of 2025. Everyone loves what they did versus the Chiefs, Eagles, and Buccaneers (first matchup) late last year. And yet, they lost those games, even though the Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers didn’t put forth any sort of effort into those contests. When the Panthers battled teams focused against them, they were obliterated by the Cowboys and Buccaneers (second matchup). Bryce Young still can’t see over the line of scrimmage, while the defense could still be a bottom-five unit.

The Panthers lost a “close” game to the Cardinals, but were down 27-3. This would have been a blowout had the Cardinals not fallen asleep at the wheel again. In the other games, the Panthers were demolished by the Jaguars and caught the Falcons completely unprepared to play off a big win on national TV. They got back to their real, losing ways against the Patriots. They beat the Dolphins, but we know how much Miami sucks. They also defeated the Cowboys, but Dallas was missing a million players. They then beat the Jets, but there are powder puff football teams that could probably give the Jets a run for their money. Carolina then got blown out by Buffalo, exposing its true colors.

Seven weeks ago, the Panthers beat the Packers, who were napping off their win against the Steelers. Green Bay was also looking ahead to battling the Eagles next Monday night. And once again, the Panthers showed their true colors in a loss to the Saints. They then beat the Falcons, but only because Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London suffered injuries, and Atlanta was coming off an 11-hour jetlagged flight from Germany. The Panthers embarrassed themselves against the 49ers. They beat the Rams, but Los Angeles was a no-show, much like the Eagles were late last year versus Carolina. And once again, the Panthers showed their true colors in their loss to the Saints.

The Panthers ended up beating the Buccaneers to take a commanding lead in the NFC South, but they still have a negative-50 point differential and would stand to be the worst playoff team in the history of the NFL if they were to reach the postseason.

Chicago Bears
The Bears are 11-4, but they had a negative point differential heading into Black Friday. They’ve been very lucky to win some of their games. It must be noted that they’re 4-4 against teams in Groups A-C. Five of their 11 wins have come against Groups D and F. Chicago would have lost to the Giants at home had Jaxson Dart not gotten injured. They were very fortunate to beat the Packers at home.

Denver Broncos
In two games against the Raiders, the Broncos have scored 10 and 17 offensive points. If you remove the Marvin Mims return touchdown, Denver scored just as many points as Las Vegas in the Week 14 matchup. In other games, the Broncos barely beat the Jets, Titans, and Giants. Their big wins were against the Chiefs, who have lost to everyone since, and the Packers, who were ahead for most of the game until they lost Christian Watson and Micah Parsons. It was no surprise that the Jaguars destroyed them in Week 16.

Philadelphia Eagles
People keep expecting the Eagles to rebound, but it’s just not happening. Their offense has been anemic all year because of poor blocking. They’ll be getting Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter back, which should help, but I just don’t trust Philadelphia.

San Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are back on the overrated list. With Joe Alt injured, the Chargers won’t be able to block anyone. They barely survived the Titans, so what’s going to happen when they battle real competition? Sure, they beat the Steelers, but is defeating a decrepit Aaron Rodgers really a great feat? Their loss to the Jaguars was staggering. They managed to beat the Chiefs, but everyone beats the Chiefs. They also defeated the Cowboys in a blowout, but Dallas was deflated after being eliminated from the playoffs less than 24 hours earlier.

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are 10-4, but they haven’t played any team above Group C yet, aside from the Rams twice. They’ve otherwise taken on seven Group C teams and lost to three and barely won two of those games. Their other opponents were three Group D teams – Giants, Panthers, Browns – and two Group F teams, the Saints and the Titans.

NFL Underrated Teams:

Buffalo Bills
I’ve heard some NFL podcasts write off the Bills as a potential Super Bowl champion because they can’t stop the run. That’s the only thing they’re bad at, and that’s not even a permanent thing because they’ll make improvements in that regard once Matt Milano is healthy.

Jacksonville Jaguars
I’ve had the Jaguars in the overrated department earlier in the season, but I believe they are underrated now. Jakobi Meyers has been a huge boon for Trevor Lawrence, who has never had a reliable receiver like Meyers at his disposal. Lawrence has worked with talented receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. and Calvin Ridley, but they’ve been mistake-prone and/or injured. Meyers is something new for Lawrence. Also, Jacksonville’s defense has improved lately; it now ranks eighth in defensive EPA over the past two months.

The Jaguars had their struggles to begin the year, but they’ve had some of the most impressive wins of any team this season, crushing the Chargers and winning by two touchdowns in Denver.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a solid defense and a quality offensive line. They also possess multiple dynamic play-makers. Their issue has been dreadful quarterbacking, but J.J. McCarthy has performed on a much higher level since his soft benching.

New Orleans Saints
The Buccaneers and Panthers are lucky that the Saints struggled with Spencer Rattler earlier in the season because New Orleans is now the best team in the NFC South. The Saints have an incredible defense ranked seventh in EPA, while Tyler Shough continues to improve each week despite missing the injured Alvin Kamara and the traded Rashid Shaheed.

Have any suggestions for overrated and underrated teams? Shout them out to @walterfootball, or see how they’re being used on the NFL Picks page.