Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 16, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Falcons 24, Panthers 10
Matt Ryan completed 15-of-26 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns as he and the Falcons coasted to a win against Carolina’s barely existent defense this week. Despite a poor real-life finish for the Falcons, Ryan has shown that he could be an elite fantasy player again.

Tevin Coleman exited this game with a groin injury, and Brian Hill took over and ripped off some long runs to accumulate 115 yards on just eight attempts. Hill did lose a fumble, but if Coleman can’t go next week against Tampa Bay, Hill would likely see a decent workload in a good matchup.

Taylor Heinicke completed 33-of-53 passes for 274 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, while rushing three times for 33 yards. He moved the ball well all game, but when the field shrunk near the end zone he forced the ball and was intercepted more often than not. He also hurt his elbow and missed a drive or two, but did finish out the game.

Ian Thomas looks like a legitimate fantasy player, as he caught 5-of-5 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. Greg Olsen wants to keep playing next season, so Thomas may still have that hurdle to overcome, but the writing appears to be on the wall for Olsen and his easily injured foot.

Patriots 24, Bills 12
Tom Brady completed 13-of-24 passes for 126 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, but thankfully had a rushing attack backing him up. Sony Michel ran the ball 18 times for 116 yards and a touchdown, and the rest of the team rushed 27 more times for 159 yards and a James White touchdown run.

Brady’s awful game also coincided with Rob Gronkowski’s awful game, as he let one pass sail through his hands for an interception and caught zero on his three targets. The question for Gronkowski now is if he can truly heal this offseason and return to something near his old form. At this point, it doesn’t really look like it.

Josh Allen completed 20-of-41 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, adding five rushing attempts for 30 yards. He was shaky in this game, but was also hurt by Robert Foster losing an 80-plus-yard touchdown pass in the sun. Allen has shown enough this season to at least warrant some dynasty appeal.

Zay Jones has developed a pattern recently of off-and-on good and bad games, and this week was his time for another good one it seems, as he caught 5-of-9 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown. He has done enough this year to show that his rookie season wasn’t indicative of his overall talent.

Jaguars 17, Dolphins 7
Cody Kessler was replaced by Blake Bortles, and neither showed much of anything, combining for 145 yards passing. Their biggest contribution was not throwing any interceptions and letting the defense win the game.

Leonard Fournette returned to his usual prominent role, as he rushed 18 times for 43 yards and a touchdown, while catching 3-of-5 targets for 28 yards. This season has not been kind to Fournette and his fantasy backers, and with no real quarterback to help him out combined with his nagging injuries, his stock has taken a downturn.

Ryan Tannehill completed 15-of-22 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and one awful interception that was returned for a touchdown, plus made three rushing attempts for 22 yards. His pick-six was the deciding factor in this game, and he’s quickly running out of chances to prove himself as an above-average NFL quarterback.

There wasn’t much offense in this game for either team, and the Dolphins two top targets were Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage. Neither topped 10 touches though, and the future for Miami’s running game is very much up in the air, as is the coaching position.

Colts 28, Giants 27
Andrew Luck completed 31-of-47 passes for 357 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He didn’t go completely off like some quarterbacks this week, but thankfully for his fantasy backers, the Giants got up early and forced Luck to throw. Luck cooled down after a torrid pace, but has also had a tough stretch of matchups.

Marlon Mack was scripted out of this game and ended up rushing 12 times for 34 yards and a touchdown and catching 1-of-3 targets for four yards. His lack of receiving usage continues to limit his upside, while Nyheim Hines only ran the ball twice, but one was for a goal-line score, and he caught 4-of-5 targets for 41 yards. Hines will continue to be a big part of the passing game when needed.

Eli Manning completed 25-of-33 passes for 309 yards with a touchdown and interception, plus notched a quarterback-sneak touchdown. This was one of his better games of the season, as he wasn’t a check-down king and wasn’t pressured. He still has decent games left in him, but only in the most advantageous situations.

Saquon Barkley seems to have hit his rookie wall right at the most inopportune time for fantasy players, as he’s had back-to-back sub-par games. Thankfully this week, he did get into the end zone to save his fantasy day, as he rushed 21 times for 43 yards and a touchdown and caught 5-of-7 targets for 34 more yards. It’s not nearly as bad as last week, but with 26 touches, you expect more out of Barkley after totaling 100 yards in 12-of-13 games before missing the mark the last two weeks. There’s no doubt he’s a fantasy beast though and will continue to be for years to come.

Vikings 27, Lions 9
Kirk Cousins completed 21-of-28 passes for 253 yards and three touchdowns, giving him his first strong fantasy day in a month. He has been way too inconsistent this season for fantasy, but still has nice upside with two great receivers to target. He is what he is.

Darius Slay clamped down on Stefon Diggs, as he caught 2-of-6 passes for 10 yards, but one was for a touchdown. But that coverage allowed Kyle Rudolph to finally see good targets, as he caught all nine of those targets for 122 yards and two touchdowns. One touchdown was a Hail Mary at the end of the half, but those still count.

Matthew Stafford had another poor game, completing 18-of-32 passes for 116 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. He is playing through a back injury and no longer has Marvin Jones or Golden Tate, so it is what it is, but even when healthy with his full complement of receivers, he wasn’t putting up big numbers. So far Matt Patricia’s coaching debut has been painfully inept.

Kenny Golladay, as the only real target, saw 15 attempts his way, but could only come down with six for 58 yards. He’s going to be a stud, but as the only reasonable target in a bad offense, he’s not going to have consistent success.

Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20
Dak Prescott didn’t take advantage of a good matchup this week, as he completed 20-of-25 passes for 161 yards and one touchdown, while adding a short rushing touchdown. He had trouble moving the ball all day and coupled with the Cowboys’ slowed-down offense, there wasn’t much to get excited about for fantasy.

Ezekiel Elliot led the team in targets and, of course, rushing yards, but did not find the end zone, as he rushed 18 times for 85 yards and caught 5-of-6 targets for 24 yards. He also wasn’t featured near the goal line, as they went to the air more often than not for reasons I can’t comprehend. They are locked into the No. 4 seed now and will likely rest players next week.

Jameis Winston completed 34-of-48 passes for 336 yards and one touchdown, while losing two fumbles – one that was returned for a touchdown and the other that set the Cowboys up deep in Tampa Bay territory. He managed to put up yardage and got Mike Evans a short touchdown, but continues to make mistakes you can’t make as a top quarterback in this league.

Adam Humphries was again the bright spot on this offense, as Winston feels most comfortable throwing over the middle to his slot man. Humphries caught 10-of-12 targets for 79 yards to once again serve as a useful PPR receiver on the cheap.

Browns 26, Bengals 18
Baker Mayfield completed 27-of-37 passes for 284 yards with three touchdowns, as the Bengals’ defense looked like their defense has much of the year. Mayfield is not a fan of Hue Jackson, so he seemed especially motivated to put up a big game on the team his old coach hooked up with.

Nick Chubb looked great once again against the Bengals, but instead of getting goal-line carries this week, he set up short touchdown passes for Baker, so he could really get back at Jackson. Chubb rushed 19 times for 112 yards and caught 2-of-3 passes for three yards. He has established himself as the lead back in an up-and-coming offense. Hang onto him.

Jeff Driskel completed 13-of-19 passes for 133 yards with two touchdowns and rushed five times for 21 yards. He did most of his damage in garbage time, and next season, he’ll be back to his backup status where he belongs.

John Ross caught 1-of-5 targets for three yards and a touchdown, and he now has seven touchdowns on 20 receptions. He has a knack for getting open in the end zone, but he has yet to show that he can be a true asset. He’s still a project.

Eagles 32, Texans 30
Nick Foles completed 35-of-49 passes for 471 yards, four touchdowns and an interception to help elevate his status in Philadelphia to just one rung under God. He kept the Eagles’ playoff hopes alive and should be given the chance to finish out the season against Washington.

There were a bunch of fantasy points in this one, with Zach Ertz breaking the tight end reception record, as he caught 12-of-16 for 110 yards and two touchdowns, but seeing old man Darren Sproles once again have a big game was fun. He rushed nine times for 32 yards and caught 3-of-6 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. Sproles ended up leading the running backs in touches and yards, as Josh Adams was completely stuffed and lost a fumble and Wendell Smallwood saw just five touches after his big game last week.

Deshaun Watson completed 29-of-40 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 49 yards and two more touchdowns on eight carries. Watson played a great real game and fantasy game this week, and now that he’s healthy, he reminds us once again of his great fantasy upside.

Demaryius Thomas was forced from this game with what is believed to be a torn Achilles. DeAndre Carter took over for him and caught 6-of-7 targets for 61 yards. If Keke Coutee can’t return next week, Carter would likely again be a main target for Watson against a tough Jacksonville defense.

Packers 44, Jets 38
When Aaron Rodgers said he didn’t want to let his team down by resting in a lost season, he meant it. He completed 37-of-55 passes for 442 yards and two touchdowns, plus rushed for 32 yards and two more touchdowns on five carries. This was vintage Rodgers as he willed his team to win, which meant running for touchdowns and making amazing throws. He’ll be a QB1 next week against Detroit.

Jamaal Williams showed that he isn’t just the ugly step-brother of Aaron Jones, as he rushed 15 times for 95 yards and a touchdown and caught 6-of-9 targets for 61 yards. He’ll get another shot as the bell-cow back against the Lions next week.

Sam Darnold completed 24-of-35 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns, taking yet another step forward in his rookie campaign. After a fairly bad slump and then an injury, it looked like Darnold might end the season with more questions than answers, but he has put together three solid games in a row and will take on the Patriots in Foxborough to end the season.

Robby Anderson has followed course with Darnold, as he now has three strong games in a row, with his best coming today against the Packers. He caught 9-of-13 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown and, once again, comes up big in the fantasy playoffs. Maybe next season he’ll start out strong now that he has a good connection with Darnold.

Saints 31, Steelers 28
Drew Brees completed 27-of-39 passes for 326 yards and one touchdown. It wasn’t what his fantasy backers were looking for, but he looked better at home than he has on the road of late. The three short rushing touchdowns by Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram also did Brees no favors for fantasy.

Kamara totaled 105 yards and two rushing touchdowns to finish off the season with a Saints record of 18 scores, while Michael Thomas caught 11-of-13 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown. Thomas may not get to play next week with no reason to risk his health, which would leave him with a whopping 120 receptions for 1,376 yards and nine touchdowns.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 33-of-50 passes for 380 yards and three touchdowns and looked great all game, as he avoided pressure and found Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster over and over again downfield. He’ll be a top-three quarterback play next week against the Bengals, as the Steelers must win to have any chance to make the playoffs.

Antonio Brown went nuts, as he caught 14-of-19 targets for 185 yards and two touchdowns, often under the watchful eye of Marcus Lattimore. That puts him at 104 receptions for 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns, with a great matchup at home against the Bengals to round things up.

Bears 14, 49ers 9
Mitchell Trubisky completed 25-of-29 passes for 246 yards and one touchdown, managing the game well enough for a win, but not doing much with his legs once again. Without his rushing ability, his fantasy floor and ceiling continue to fall.

Jordan Howard rushed 13 times for 53 yards and one touchdown and caught 2-of-3 targets for 17 yards, while Tarik Cohen did little as he rushed six times for 12 yards and caught his only target for one yard. Howard remains relevant in games in which the Bears are close, but Cohen is always a threat for a big play. It’s a situation that will continue to cause fantasy headaches with the occasional big-game relief.

Nick Mullens completed 22-of-38 passes for 241 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Playing the Bears’ defense will do that to you.

Dante Pettis hurt his knee and had to leave this game and is likely done for the season. He played well, especially with more chances due to injuries late in the season and is high on my list for next year’s breakouts.

Matt Breida also was injured early in this game, as usual. That gave work to Jeff Wilson, but he couldn’t do anything against the Bears’ front seven, as he rushed 11 times for 27 yards and caught his two targets for 11 yards.

Rams 31, Cardinals 9
Jared Goff completed 19-of-24 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown and added a second touchdown on two carries for six yards. It was a strong game overall for Goff, but he didn’t need to put on the gas pedal with a big lead. It was good to see him play well after two down games.

Todd Gurley was a late scratch after appearing to be ready to play, but hopefully most Gurley backers were able to grab and start C.J. Anderson, who had a day, rushing 20 times for 167 yards and a touchdown. The Rams do need to win next week for seeding purposes, so Gurley could return, but if not, Anderson would again be an interesting fantasy play.

Seahawks 38, Chiefs 31
Russell Wilson completed 18-of-29 passes for 271 yards with three touchdowns and rushed eight times for 57 yards. This is the Wilson we all grew up loving in fantasy football, but a run-first attack has slowed his output down despite some extreme touchdown efficiency. He’s still a strong fantasy player and showed tonight what he could do regularly if called upon.

Chris Carson, once again, put up big numbers and has now been a stud in each week of the fantasy playoffs. He was injured on and off and had some inconsistency, but came on strong with seven touchdowns in his last eight games. This week, he had 27 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns to likely lead quite a few teams to fantasy victory. The Seahawks appear to have finally found their Marshawn Lynch replacement.

Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-40 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns. It wasn’t his best real-life game, but it was yet another big fantasy day, as he has now nearly lapped the rest of the quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Missing Kareem Hunt and Sammy Watkins has hurt him and Kansas City, but he has amazingly only dipped below 20 fantasy points in two games this season and has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but two games. He has 50 total touchdowns when you include rushing scores, and he’ll be in a must-win game against the Raiders next week, who he just threw four touchdowns against.

Damien Williams rushed 13 times for 103 yards and caught all seven of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Williams has now put two strong fantasy games together just at the right time for those in the fantasy playoffs. If you are crazy enough to play in a league that counts Week 17, it may be tougher to rely on him, as Spencer Ware should be back against the Raiders.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 16, 2018

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