Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 13, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Jaguars 6, Colts 0
Cody Kessler completed 18-of-24 passes for 150 yards and ran the ball five times for 28 more yards. Those numbers aren’t anything we want for fantasy and likely won’t be moving forward, but they got the win based on the defense and his zero turnovers, so he’s likely sticking in that spot.

T.J. Yeldon out-touched Carlos Hyde 15 to 14, as Kessler needed someone to throw to and he wasn’t going to hit his receivers deep. Yeldon led the way through the air, catching 7-of-8 passes for 49 yards, plus took eight carries for 16 yards. Hyde ran the ball 13 times for 36 yards and lost a fumble. Leonard Fournette will return next week against the Titans.

Andrew Luck completed 33-of-52 passes for 248 yards and an interception, adding 16 yards on two carries. His three-touchdown streak was obliterated this week, as the Jacksonville defense was the star of this game. I think we chalk this one up to defenders wanting to prove they weren’t the reason the Jaguars had lost seven straight.

Eric Ebron led Colts in targets with 16, of which he caught 10 for 81 yards. For a game in which the Colts scored zero points, Ebron’s numbers were still tremendous in PPR leagues and should continue to be so to finish out the season.

Buccaneers 24, Panthers 17
Jameis Winston completed 20-of-30 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns, adding 48 yards rushing on five attempts. Those rushing yards elevated his fantasy day from above-average to good, and he has been doing that more often than not this season. He also kept from turning the ball over for the second straight game. We should be able to count on him next week against the Saints’ improved defense.

Chris Godwin got the start with DeSean Jackson out and took advantage, catching 5-of-6 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. Godwin should be starting ahead of Jackson, but I doubt it happens this season.

Cam Newton completed 28-of-41 passes for 300 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions, adding six carries for 33 yards. This was Bad Cam, as he threw those four interceptions, which cost his team the game and his fantasy backers a strong fantasy day. It’s just his second weak fantasy game over his last eight matchups, so keep starting him next week against Cleveland and then New Orleans and Atlanta.

Greg Olsen re-injured his foot early on and is done for the season. Ian Thomas took over for him and did catch all five of his targets for 46 yards. He is a guy you want in dynasty, but the Panthers are spreading the ball around so much that h is likely not going to see five targets in a game moving forward.

Giants 30, Bears 27
Eli Manning completed 19-of-35 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and never really had a chance against the Bears’ defense because he’s not good. Odell Beckham Jr. looked better in the pocket than Manning on his 49-yard touchdown pass to Sterling Shepard.

The only consistent offense for the Giants came from Saquon Barkley, who rushed 24 times for 125 yards and caught 3-of-4 passes for 21 yards. He is that guy, and even Manning and the Bears can’t slow him down.

Chase Daniel completed 26-of-39 passes for 285 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He did help rally his team to overtime, but he was mostly awful all game and has Tarik Cohen to thank for many of his passing yards. Chicago needs Mitch Trubisky back soon.

Tarik Cohen caught 12-of-14 targets for 156 yards and added 30 yards on eight carries. This game set up well for Cohen, as the Giants had a lead and Chase Daniel isn’t accurate on deeper passes. In one-point-per-reception scoring, he managed 34.6 fantasy points with zero touchdowns. That is a feat.

Dolphins 21, Bills 17
Ryan Tannehill completed 16-of-24 passes for 137 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He wasn’t as good as the three touchdowns might lead you to believe, but he did get the job done when needed. Tannehill is the kind of fantasy player who will give you glimmers of hope and then snuff them out with prejudice, three-fold.

Kenyan Drake was able to score yet another touchdown this week, but still had just nine touches for 44 yards while Frank Gore had nine touches for 31 yards. Relying on Drake scoring touchdowns has worked in fantasy, but it is going to remain a risky proposition.

Josh Allen completed 18-of-33 passes for 231 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 135 yards on nine carries. He’s the Lamar Jackson we have been looking for. Allen now has back-o-back big fantasy games due to his huge rushing output, and we can’t look the other way anymore, despite his glut of awful games early in the season. He gets the Jets and Lions at home the next two weeks, and as long as he keeps running, he’s going to have fantasy value.

Zay Jones caught 4-of-9 targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns, adding a two-point conversion. Jones has now managed two big fantasy games over his last three, but one of those was a big fat zero. Maybe Allen and Jones play loose to finish the season and dominate, but I don’t know if I have the inner fortitude to bet on that happening.

Cardinals 20, Packers 17
Josh Rosen completed 11-of-26 passes for 149 yards and rushed twice for 32 yards. He made plays when he needed to, but this offense remains extremely weak overall and Rosen will continue to struggle to put up fantasy relevant stats.

David Johnson rushed 20 times for 69 yards and caught 1-of-2 targets for three yards, while Chase Edmonds rushed five times for 53 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught 2-of-2 targets for 13 yards. This was an awful sign for those of us with Johnson, as his upside was built into his extreme usage. If Edmonds is going to come in around the goal line, Johnson’s upside takes a severe hit.

Aaron Rodgers completed 31-of-50 passes for 233 yards and a touchdown, adding 20 yards on three rushing attempts. This is not a line I ever expected from Rodgers. Yes, bad games happen, but 31 completions for 233 yards is as un-Rodgers-like as it gets. You can give the Cardinals’ pass rush credit, but there’s no-doubt the Packers’ offense is broken. It is so broken that Mike McCarthy, who rode Rodgers’ coattails to an extremely secure job, has finally been let go.

Aaron Jones rushed 11 times for 36 yards and a touchdown, plus caught all four of his targets for 16 yards, while Jamaal Williams rushed seven times for 13 yards and caught all four of his targets for 14 yards. Jones has outplayed Williams at every turn this year and recently had finally helped knock Williams’ touches down to miniscule numbers, but the 11 touches today is just dumb.

Rams 30, Lions 16
Jared Goff completed 17-of-33 passes for 207 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus lost a fumble. It was not a strong day for Goff, but the overall talent for the Rams prevailed in real life. This was a weird week for quarterbacks, and Goff was no exception. It looked like the Rams knew they could coast through this one, which they did.

Todd Gurley didn’t disappoint, as he rarely does. He rushed 23 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught 3-of-5 targets for 33 yards. This is what the best fantasy running back in the league does, and he is very good at it.

Matthew Stafford completed 20-of-33 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception, plus lost a fumble. This is the Stafford we’ve grown to not like and the one who is here to stay with a not-great offensive line and dearth of receivers.

Broncos 24, Bengals 10
Case Keenum completed 12-of-21 passes for 151 yards and one touchdown, plus rushed twice for nine yards. The Broncos prefer that Keenum doesn’t have to do much, even in a great matchup like this one, as they would rather rely on the defense and running game. He will remain a middling QB2 option in a good matchup with the 49ers next week.

Phillip Lindsay went off for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 20 touches, while Royce Freeman ran the ball 12 times for 48 yards. The Bengals couldn’t do anything with Jeff Driskel at the helm, and the Broncos just ran it down their throats, so Lindsay finally got the workload he deserves.

Jeff Driskel completed 25-of-38 passes for 236 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He lost A.J. Green early in this one, as Green re-injured his foot, and he was already down most of his starting offensive linemen, so he never really had a chance with the Broncos bringing consistent pressure.

Joe Mixon rushed 12 times for 82 yards and caught both of his targets for 13 yards, while Giovani Bernard rushed five times for 14 yards and caught 6-of-8 passes for 32 yards. Even with a deficit, it is criminal for Mixon to only see 14 touches to Bernard’s 11. I like Bernard, but Mixon is a talent who needs to be exploited, even when the game script doesn’t call for many rushing plays.

Ravens 26, Falcons 16
Lamar Jackson completed 12-of-21 passes for 125 yards, adding 17 carries for 75 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and was out for a drive to be evaluated for a concussion. He’s still not able to make throws to his boundary receivers with any consistency, but his threat and ability as a runner keep the offense moving. His fantasy day wasn’t exceptional, but it looks like he could easily finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this week. Joe Flacco will be ready to return next week, but the Ravens have won their last three games with Jackson at the helm and had lost their previous three games with Flacco. I don’t see how Jackson doesn’t get another start.

Until Jackson improves as a passer, it will be difficult to play any of Baltimore’s receivers, but the running game should continue to be strong. Gus Edwards was able to rush 21 times for 82 yards, which is helped by the threat of Jackson taking the ball for himself.

Seahawks 43, 49ers 16
Russell Wilson completed 11-of-17 passes for 185 yards and four touchdowns, adding 14 yards on four carries. The fact that Wilson continues to throw touchdowns on so few attempts is getting crazy. What seemed like outlier games are now just the norm. He’s still not putting up huge fantasy points despite all the touchdowns because he’s not getting the yardage to go along with the scores. But the scores are keeping him viable in fantasy.

Rashaad Penny rushed seven times for 65 yards and a touchdown but remained behind Chris Carson, who ran the ball 13 times for 69 yards and caught 3-of-4 targets for 39 more yards. Penny looks explosive and probably deserves more work, but Carson is too steady to usurp. Both could have fantasy value the way the Seahawks want to run the ball but until they can really get going, Penny will remain risky.

Nick Mullens completed 30-of-48 passes for 414 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Most of that yardage came with Seattle up big, but it still counts for fantasy, and it was a good sign after not showing much after his debut against a bad Raiders defense.

Jeff Wilson rushed 15 times for 61 yards and caught 8-of-9 targets for 73 yards. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said that Matt Breida aggravated his ankle injury in warmups, but of course that was information us fantasy players weren’t privy to. Breida did see some work with Wilson out for a series due to a foot injury, but he apparently hurt his ankle again after a long catch and run. Wilson could be in line for the start against Denver next week if Breida misses any time.

Patriots 24, Vikings 10
Tom Brady completed 24-of-32 passes for 311 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He did most of his work dumping the ball off to James White, but played a strong game overall. His fantasy upside just isn’t there this year, and I’m afraid it won’t be anytime soon.

Sony Michel didn’t do much this week, but he remained the lead back by a good margin, even with Rex Burkhead returning. This was a tough matchup for a between-the-tackles runner like Michel, so his 17 carries for 63 yards isn’t a huge surprise. He should have a better go at it against Miami next week.

Kirk Cousins completed 32-of-44 passes for 201 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. This is the Cousins we’ve learned to love and hate. He needs a clean pocket and open receivers, and he wasn’t getting that this week. Maybe he can get back going against Seattle, which just gave up a mile of yardage to Nick Mullens.

Dalvin Cook rushed nine times for 84 yards and caught 8-of-10 targets for a measly 22 yards. Game script pushed him to a receiving role that wasn’t great for yardage, but he showed plenty in this game and looks like he’s back on track and can be used without reservations moving forward.

Chiefs 40, Raiders 33
Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-38 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns, plus took nine carries for 52 yards. It wasn’t a perfect game but Mahomes doesn’t need perfect games to put up insane numbers like these. He is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback by a wide margin and will continue to be.

Spencer Ware rushed 14 times for 47 yards and a touchdown, plus caught one pass for five yards. It was a disappointing start for Ware as the lead back, and if the Chiefs end up signing C.J. Anderson, a full-blown committee is likely to develop.

Derek Carr completed 29-of-38 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns, as he had no trouble moving the ball on Kansas City. Carr hasn’t had many of these games this season, but we’ve seen them, and this time, he did it with a group of tanking has-beens and rookies.

Jordy Nelson caught 10-of-11 targets for 97 yards. It appears he is finally healthy again and could have some worth in fantasy, as the Raiders are devoid of consistent receiving targets.

Titans 26, Jets 22
Marcus Mariota completed 20-of-35 passes for 282 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He also totaled 42 yards on five rushing attempts. Every time I think Mariota is back, he throws up a dud and vice versa. He has now had two good fantasy games in a row and four out of his last five. He gets a tough matchup against a Jaguars team that just shut Andrew Luck out, so I think we’ll have to wait on starting him for now.

Taywan Taylor caught 3-of-5 targets for 104 yards, while Corey Davis caught 3-of-7 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. Taylor had been out since getting hurt in Week 9, so this strong game is a great sign. Davis remains the target leader and No. 1 receiver, but Taylor is a talented player, who has more big games ahead of him.

Josh McCown completed 17-of-30 passes for 128 yards and an interception. I think it is time for Sam Darnold to return.

Isaiah Crowell rushed 21 times for 98 yards and caught 4-of-5 targets for nine yards. This was Crowell’s best game in a while, but I don’t see this offense coming around enough for Crowell to have much upside. He does have a chance for a good workload against the Bills next week, but I see no reason to start him unless you are forced to do so.

Chargers 33, Steelers 30
Philip Rivers completed 26-of-36 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns. It was another strong game, and as long as he is forced to throw, he will put up good numbers in most cases. Next week against the Bengals could be one of those games where he coasts after throwing two touchdowns and doesn’t rack up the yardage we need for a top fantasy day, but the Bengals are just bad enough that maybe he will rack up three touchdowns before he takes a nap.

Justin Jackson rushed eight time for 63 yards and a touchdown, plus caught his lone target for 19 yards. All of his touches came in the second half, as Austin Ekeler got the start, but wasn’t effective. If Melvin Gordon can’t return next week, Jackson should see lead back work with Ekeler as the receiving back, but Gordon is getting close to returning.

Ben Roethlisberger completed 29-of-45 passes for 281 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He made some great throws, but again threw an interception in a bad spot. Amazingly, this was his worst fantasy game since Week 8, and next week, he’ll head to Oakland to take on that bad defense.

James Conner rushed 15 times for 60 yards and two touchdowns, plus caught 3-of-4 targets for 14 yards, before leaving due to a lower leg injury. There looks to be a good chance we see Jaylen Samuels, who caught a touchdown pass, as the main back next week in Oakland.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 13, 2018

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