Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 3, 2018

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Eagles 20, Colts 16
Carson Wentz’s return wasn’t a fantasy windfall for points, but he did look good on a rainy day in Philadelphia as he completed 25-of-37 passes for 255 yards for one touchdown and one interception while rushing three times for 10 yards. He was without Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace, Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles. Wentz won’t get Wallace back, but he should get the other three sooner than later, and I expect he’ll be a useful fantasy quarterback sooner than later as well.

With Ajayi and Sproles out, I expected Corey Clement to lead the way, but it was Wendall Smallwood who started, and despite Clement finally out-distancing him in overall touches, Smallwood gained more yardage and was able to get into the end zone from four yards out. Overall, the Eagles used three running backs: Clement saw 16 rushed for 56 yards and caught 3-of-4 targets for 19 yards; Smallwood with 10 attempts for 56 yards and a touchdown with 3-of-5 receptions for 35 yards; and Josh Adams with six carries for 30 yards. Clement was the leader of the pack in work, but there was a lot of running back usage in this game and coach Pederson clearly spread the work out. If Jay Ajayi were to miss more time, I could see Josh Adams getting more early-down work in the Ajayi role, which would muddle things even more. There is no clear back to roster, so you have to roster them all with Clement getting a slight edge due to workload.

Zach Ertz led the way with 10 targets, so he and Wentz picked up where they left off. Dallas Goedert ended up with better numbers on his seven targets, as he caught all seven for 73 yards and a touchdown, while Ertz caught five for 73 yards and no touchdown. Once Alshon Jeffery returns, Goedert will likely be a touchdown-or-bust option, as Ertz is still the clear leader in snaps and usage at the position.

Andrew Luck continues to dink-and-dunk, as he averaged just 4.1 yards per pass attempt. He then had to acquiesce to Jacoby Brissett for the Hail Mary attempt at the end of the game due to his weakened arm strength. Luck will have better games in the home dome, but outdoor games, especially with some weather, could prove tougher for him. I don’t know if he’ll regain his arm strength or not, but for now we need to think of him as a Chad Pennington type, who will need good matchups to be fantasy worthy.

No Colts receiver topped 50 yards, and Luck led the team in rushing with one carry for 33 yards. Ryan Grant was the lone Colt to get into the end zone, but was still fourth on the target list, while Eric Ebron led the team with 11 targets due to Jack Doyle’s absence, but he still only hauled in five of those for 33 yards.

Giants 27, Texans 22
Eli Manning had a good bounceback game after starting the season awfully, as he completed 25-of-29 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns. That completion percentage is insane, and it only could happen with his line stepping up finally. Ereck Flowers getting demoted was the likely catalyst, as J.J. Watt would have eaten his lunch this week.

Odell Beckham Jr. led the way in targets, receptions and yardage for the receivers, but couldn’t get into the end zone. It’s just a matter of time as long as the offensive line can put up some kind of fight moving forward.

Sterling Shepard ended up with a strong game, catching 6-of-7 targets for 80 yards and a touchdown after an abysmal Week 2, while tight end Evan Engram had to leave this game with a knee injury. If he misses any time, Shepard gets a nice boost in usage.

Saquon Barkley is amazing, as seen from his 15-yard touchdown run on which he jump-cut and stiff-armed his way into space and the end zone. He’s the only player on the Giants who has been consistent through some awful football, and there’s no reason to think that won’t keep up.

DeShaun Watson can’t seem to do much until he has to push his team to score quickly by throwing the ball over and over again. After a slow first half against the Giants, he started building his fantasy numbers and eventually completed 24-of-40 passes for 385 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while rushing for 36 yards on five carries. The good news is that he has two strong receivers who can help facilitate these late-game passing barrages and will likely get into the end zone with his legs sooner than later.

Houston’s receivers are also good for fantasy, as there are just two, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, who see the majority of the targets. Hopkins has 32 through three games, while Fuller has 20 through two. This week, it was Fuller who put up the best numbers, as he went over 100 yards and found the end zone for his second straight game. Hopkins still had a decent game, but was held down by Janoris Jenkins for 6-of-10 receptions for 86 yards. Both should remain stable fantasy plays while healthy.

Lamar Miller couldn’t get anything going on the ground and also lost a fumble. He did manage to get a late receiving touchdown to save his fantasy day and show that game script isn’t a killer for his value, but his upside remains capped by his talent level.

Ravens 27, Broncos 14
Joe Flacco had a decent day, but nothing worth noting in most fantasy leagues, as two of the Ravens’ three offensive touchdowns were on the ground. It was a much better game than last Thursday night, and he showed enough to be a good streaming option in a strong matchup against Pittsburgh next week.

Alex Collins got into the end zone and led the team in rushing, but Javorius Allen ended up with two touchdowns despite gaining seven rushing yards on six carries and catching 3-of-4 passes for 19 yards. John Harbaugh trusts Allen with ball security and likes him around the goal line. Collins did score from six yards out, but that’s still not exactly a goal-line carry.

Collins didn’t blow the doors down, but against a good run defense, he carried the ball 18 times for 68 yards and the touchdown, plus caught 3-of-4 passes for just six yards. The 21 touches were good to see, and the fact that Allen isn’t the de facto ball carrier when in the red zone is also good, so keep on keeping on with Collins despite Allen’s usage.

Case Keenum was bad in Baltimore, throwing for just 192 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. When given time against a poor defense, he can get the job done, but that wasn’t the case this week.

Phillip Lindsay was ejected after taking a couple swings during a mini-brawl. That helped Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker to see more work, as Freeman rushed 13 times for 53 yards and a touchdown and Booker rushed five times for 10 yards and caught 5-of-7 targets for 34 yards. Lindsay, before his ejection, had run four times for 20 yards and will be back again to see decent sized workloads that will hurt Freeman and keep Booker off the field.

Titans 9, Jaguars 6
Blaine Gabbert started this game before suffering a first-quarter concussion that pushed Marcus Mariota on to the field despite his continued nerve trouble in his throwing elbow. Mariota didn’t do much, as he completed 12-of-18 passes for 100 yards and rushed seven times for 51 yards. He looked as if he had an injury, as his passes had little zip or accuracy. His rushing ability was likely more helpful than anything he did through the air.

Derrick Henry rushed the ball 18 times for 57 yards, while Dion Lewis rushed nine times for 26 yards and caught all three of his targets for 14 yards. In a close game, Henry got the majority of the work, but with the offense limited by an injured quarterback, offense was hard to come by. Henry and Lewis’ roles will fluctuate with game script, as they have so far this season.

The Jaguars were without Leonard Fournette again this week, and while it didn’t matter last week when Blake Bortles threw all over the Patriots, it might have helped to have him around this week, as Bortles only put up 158 passing yards on 33 attempts. Bortles is tough to figure out, as he’ll go off one week and then be plain bad the following week. The Titans’ defense is playing well under Mike Vrabel right now, but they can still be beaten by good teams, which the Jaguars are more often than not.

Corey Grant got the start over T.J. Yeldon, but that didn’t last long, as Grant was completely ineffective. We’ve seen Grant play well in limited work, so this is disappointing, but does solidify Yeldon as the backup, as he rushed seven times for 44 yards and caught 6-of-7 targets for 46 yards and led the team in fantasy points.

Panthers 31, Bengals 21
Cam Newton did his usual thing, as he only put up 150 passing yards, but got two passing touchdowns and rushed for two more to have another big fantasy day. His rushing touchdowns will continue to hurt Christian McCaffrey, but will push Newton’s upside into QB1 range every week.

McCaffrey might have lost some goal-line opportunities, but he got a ton of work on the ground this week, as he rushed 28 times for 184 yards and caught his two targets for 10 yards. Yes, he saw just two targets and 28 rushing attempts! That isn’t the best news for his PPR value, but 194 total yards isn’t going to make too many people sad, plus he is still a great receiving back and will usually see more work in the passing game.

Devin Funchess continues to be a strong target for Newton with Greg Olsen out, and this week, Funchess got into the end zone. He’ll continue to be a top target with Olsen out, but the upside in this offense is still going to fluctuate quite a bit, as Newton is prone to low passing yardage.

Andy Dalton threw four interceptions as he completed 29-of-46 passes for 352 yards and two touchdowns. The four picks sound a bit worse than they were, as a hail Mary and tipped ball caused a couple and John Ross not fighting for a pass caused another. Dalton continues to show some upside in this offense and needs to be considered as a strong streamer in good matchups.

Dalton did lose his best receiver in this game, with A.J. Green leaving due to a groin injury. It did appear he could have returned, but the Bengals held him out as a precaution. Hopefully that is the case, and we’ll need to keep an eye on the situation.

After Green left, Tyler Boyd went off, catching 6-of-7 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown, and this is coming off a monster game last week against the Ravens. He’ll be a popular waiver-wire pickup this week.

It was also good to see Tyler Eifert get more work after a quiet first two weeks. After seeing seven targets through the first two games, he saw eight today and caught six for 74 yards. The loss of A.J. Green helped him see more work, but with John Ross playing poorly, I expect Eifert to join Green and Boyd as the top targets, and we know that Eifert has always been great at catching contested targets in the end zone.

Redskins 31, Packers 17
Alex Smith completed 12-of-20 passes for 220 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, plus made seven rushing attempts for 20 yards. Smith no longer has Andy Reid to scheme open receivers deep, so Smith has reverted to his old dink-and-dunk self in Washington.

Adrian Peterson looked a lot like the old Peterson in this game, as he rushed 19 times for 120 yards and two touchdowns. One of the touchdowns didn’t look like one, but whatever, it was a goal-line carry and counts as a touchdown sometimes, I guess. He isn’t the player he once was, but he still has tremendous ability, and at times, can get into a rhythm that will be tough to stop.

Jordan Reed led the team in targets, as he caught 4-of-7 for 65 yards. He’s yet to show his upside, but he’ll continue to be a top target in this offense and the upside should come.

Aaron Rodgers put up 44 passes, yet only totaled 265 yards on 27 completions for two touchdowns. He had no help from his receivers with drops, fumbles and penalties. While he did not look healthy, he still threw no interceptions and even rushed twice for 13 yards. Even at less than 100 percent, Rodgers is going to give you a good game and will remain a must-start in fantasy.

Geronimo Allison led the team in receiving yards, which included a long touchdown, but he was also the fifth-most targeted player on the field. He’ll remain a fantasy play, but will likely need a touchdown to be a good start.

Aaron Jones returned this week and looked great on limited touches, rushing six times for 42 yards. He’s obviously a better runner than Jamaal Williams, but Williams is a better pass blocker, and when you add in receiving back Ty Montgomery, who led all the running backs in total yards due to his six receptions, this backfield is tough to get a handle on. I do think Jones’ ability is too good to leave him on the waiver wire though.

Bills 27, Vikings 6
Holy what now!? I don’t know if anyone saw this one coming who wasn’t a demented Bills fan, but it happened and Josh Allen is the reason why. Allen didn’t have many clean pockets, but his ability to skirt defenders and pick up yardage and touchdowns with his legs, along with making strong passes to a group of not-so-good receivers, was key. He completed 15-of-22 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown, and had 10 carries for 39 yards and two touchdowns. The question now is, can we trust him as a fantasy producer? I’ll need to see more out of him and his receivers, but it’s apparent that his ability as a runner will raise his floor. He’s worth an add if you lost Jimmy Garoppolo today just in case.

The only player besides Allen to have any fantasy relevancy on the Bills was Chris Ivory. He was stonewalled as a runner, rushing 20 times for just 56 yards, but caught 3-of-4 targets for 70 yards to help his bottom line.

The Vikings were caught by surprise and could never get their footing as the Buffalo defensive line outmatched the Minnesota offensive line all day. Kirk Cousins was strip sacked on his first two drives, which was the beginning of the end. He did end up completing an insane 40 passes on 55 attempts as the Vikings tried to come from behind, but he managed just 296 yards and one touchdown to Kyle Rudolph with two minutes remaining.

Adam Thielen was the target hog during this futile attempt to come from behind, catching 14-of-19 targets for 105 yards. That’s gold in PPR, Jerry. He remains the No. 1 target, with Stefon Diggs the No. 2 with the same upside, but a much lower floor, as we saw today when he caught 4-of-10 targets for 17 yards.

Dolphins 28, Raiders 20
Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-23 passes for 289 yards and three touchdowns in a game in which the Dolphins ran just 39 plays and Albert Wilson threw a 52-yard touchdown pass to Jakeem Grant, who caught two passes for 70 yards and two touchdowns, while Wilson caught two passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. The passing offense was insanely efficient, which is reflected in the crazy-low 39 plays.

Kenyan Drake never had a shot to get anything going in this game and split opportunities seven to six with Frank Gore. Drake will need to get more consistent work to be considered an RB2.

Derek Carr completed 27-of-39 passes for 345 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The bulk of that yardage went to Jordy Nelson, who went off in the first quarter and finished with 173 receiving yards and a touchdown on six receptions. Unfortunately, he was the only receiver to put up good numbers, as Amari Cooper had another poor game.

Chiefs 38, 49ers 27
Patrick Mahomes completed 24-of-38 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns despite throwing just 13 times in the second half of a blowout. His big day even allowed for Kareem Hunt to get two goal-line touchdowns, which is pretty amazing and shows you just how great this offense is right now with Mahomes under center. Mahomes has now thrown 13 touchdowns to zero interceptions to start the season, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to fall off a cliff anytime soon.

Travis Kelce was the target hog again this week, catching 8-of-10 passes for 114 yards, but couldn’t find the end zone. Sammy Watkins was second in targets with eight, of which he caught five for 55 yards and his first touchdown with his new team. Tyreek Hill came in third in targets with five. He caught two of those for 51 yards and no touchdown, but Mahomes did miss him on a long touchdown. If Mahomes gets that ball to him, Hill has another blow-up game, and that is likely to be Hill’s M.O. this season, as his target numbers won’t be huge, but the targets he gets will set him up for huge gainers.

The big and bad news out of 49erville is that Jimmy Garoppolo likely has a season-ending ACL tear. He for some reason initiated contact with a defender on the sideline instead of going out of bounds. It’s a blow to the 49ers and their fantasy players, as C.J. Beathard will take over, and he did not look up to the task last season. He is an add in 2QB leagues, but we’ll need to see some elevated play out of him before upgrading this offense for fantasy.

Saints 43, Falcons 37
Drew Brees completed 39-of-49 passes for 396 yards and three touchdowns, plus rushed for an additional two touchdowns to push his fantasy day even above that of his rival in this game, Matt Ryan, who threw for five touchdowns! This was Brees at the height of his powers despite his 39 years on this planet. He’s got great weapons who he doesn’t miss very often.

Alvin Kamara was a PPR stud once again, as he caught 15-of-20 targets for 124 yards and rushed 16 times for an additional 66 yards. Amazingly, the Falcons kept him out of the end zone, but 190 total yards should help even in standard leagues.

Michael Thomas continues his assault on the reception record, catching all 10 of his targets for 129 yards. He’s currently on pace for 202 receptions on 213 targets for 2,122 yards and a measly 16 touchdowns.

Today was the coming-out party for Calvin Ridley, who caught 7-of-8 targets for 146 yards and three touchdowns. We even saw Marcus Lattimore switch from Julio Jones to Ridley to try to stop the bleeding. Ridley isn’t going to overtake Julio Jones, but this should help keep Jones from getting extremely unbalanced coverage his way moving forward. This might be a good time to try to pry Jones from your league mates and pick Ridley up off waivers.

Matt Ryan had a huge game, as is evident by Ridley’s three-touchdown affair. Ryan completed 26-of-35 passes for five touchdowns and has put his Week 1 game behind him, putting up two huge fantasy days over the last two weeks. The addition of Ridley is only going to raise Ryan’s fantasy floor moving forward.

Seahawks 24, Cowboys 13
Russell Wilson had an average day, completing 16-of-26 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and gaining nothing on the ground, while Chris Carson saw an amazing 32 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown to go along with his two receptions for 22 yards. The Cowboys’ lack of offense and three turnovers helped the Seahawks keep Carson running the ball despite inefficient yards per carry and kept Wilson from needing to pass much. Wilson did hit Tyler Lockett for a long touchdown, as he caught 4-of-6 targets for 77 yards and the score to lead the team in receiving.

Rashaad Penny barely saw the ball this week, and he did even less with those touches than his usual. He’s off the fantasy radar for now.

Will Dissly will remain a touchdown-dependent tight end for fantasy and one who you don’t need to roster on your team, as he caught 1-of-3 targets for four yards.

Dak Prescott isn’t running enough to have much fantasy value with his current passing output. He completed 19-of-34 passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions and has now thrown for under 200 yards in nine of his last 11 games.

Ezekiel Elliott continues to perform well despite the total lack of passing offense, as he rushed 16 times for 127 yards and caught just 3-of-8 targets for 11 yards. He also lost a costly fumble, but there’s no doubt Elliott can get the job done in fantasy, but he could have trouble getting short touchdown runs since the Cowboys aren’t going to be in the red zone as often as they have in the past.

Bears 16, Cardinals 14
Sam Bradford started this game on fire and then completely collapsed before eventually giving way to Josh Rosen for the waning minutes. Rosen had his own troubles, but coming into the game with four minutes remaining down two against Kahlil Mack’s vicious pass rush isn’t something I’d wish on my worst enemy. I expect we’ll see Rosen next week.

David Johnson caught a 21-yard touchdown in this game, but that was about it, as he rushed 12 times for 31 yards and caught all four of his targets for 30 yards and the touchdown. The touchdown keeps him from a dud, but he continues to need a touchdown to just be useful as a fantasy start. Hopefully, Rosen gets the nod and can help facilitate more work Johnson’s way.

Christian Kirk caught 7-of-8 targets for 90 yards to give the Arizona passing game a glimmer of hope, but we’ll likely need to see a turnaround for this offense before investing in Kirk.

Mitchell Trubisky completed 24-of-35 passes for 220 yards and an interception, while also losing a fumble. It was a poor display by the second-year signal-caller as he continues to bury some strong fantasy prospects in Chicago.

Rams 35, Chargers 23
Jared Goff completed 29-of-36 passes for 354 yards, three touchdowns and an interception to put up his best fantasy day of the season so far. The Chargers’ 23 points were the most a team has put up on the Rams, and that helped push Goff to throw a bit more than usual.

Robert Woods was Goff’s No. 1 target this week, catching 10-of-11 passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns. But Goff spread it around well, and Brandon Cooks caught 7-of-8 targets for 90 yards and just missed a touchdown after getting tackled at the one, and Cooper Kupp caught 4-of-6 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. All three receivers continue to be strong plays in fantasy even with Todd Gurley getting his every week as well.

Philip Rivers completed 18-of-30 passes for 226 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Rams defense, putting up fantasy numbers that didn’t sink your team despite the matchup.

Both of Rivers’ touchdowns passes went to Mike Williams, who caught 4-of-7 targets for 81 yards on top of the touchdowns. His seven targets tied Keenan Allen for the team lead and shows me that Rivers has let Mike Williams into his trust circle. Mike Williams needs to be picked up in all leagues.

Lions 26, Patriots 10
Matthew Stafford completed 27-of-36 passes for 262 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on his way to a resounding win over the Patriots after a miserable start to the season. We knew he’d rebound, as he’s been a good fantasy quarterback his whole career, but now with his trio of receivers, it’s going to take some work for him to bomb.

Both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones got into the end zone this week, but the Lions did play keep-away with the Patriots and ran the ball quite a bit, with 33 rushing attempts for 159 yards. The bulk of those yards came from rookie Kerryon Johnson, who rushed 16 times for 101 yards, while LeGarrette Blount also rushed 16 times, but for just 48 yards. This should push Johnson to the lead-back job, but we can’t count on that, and we also can’t count on him seeing 16 rushing attempts per game if Blount splits time evenly with him moving forward. If Johnson is on your waiver wire, he is a must-add though, as he looked great in this game.

Tom Brady threw for just 133 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He couldn’t get anything going against this defense and didn’t look particularly good trying.

Sony Michel couldn’t get much going, but he did lead the team in rushing attempts with 14 for 50 yards, while Rex Burkhead hurt his neck and had to leave the game. James White will continue to be the main receiving back, as he caught the lone Patriots touchdown Sunday night, but Michel will likely continue to get rushing work, especially with nobody there to push him right now.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Betting Futures: Draft Props

NFL Hot Press: 2024 NFL Draft Week Rumors – Wednesday

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft – Round 1 (1-16) – Charlie Campbell

2024 NFL Mock Draft – Round 7 (221-257) – Charlie Campbell

Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 3, 2018

Related News