Walter I think you're right to go back to psychology being a huge factor in picking games. I think where you error is these one-liners that mostly have to do with what happened during their last game. Take the Chargers for instance, the franchise has been slowly crumbling all season, all the fans saw it a mile away. The failed draft picks, sideline spats, injuries, losing to bad teams, frustrated QB with nobody to throw to, and a coach who has lost the locker room. These were all bigger psychological factors than whatever happened the previous game or looking ahead or whatever. The Packers finally took enough heat from the media to get pissed off enough to win a a game. They hit a tipping point before beating MIN. I think you have to look at the bigger factors that are playing into a team's motivation, if you can find them, and use those to your advantage. As a Charger fan I didn't go anywhere near that bet because I knew nobody would get up for any game until McCoy is gone. Nobody on that team cares right now, except for Rivers.
This is still my favorite site and eventhough the picks have been bad, the analysis still helps for fantasy purposes. Also, when I pair your picks up with a couple other cappers and get rid of the ones you disagree on I tend to do pretty well.
Finally, taking favorites has been brutal lately. I'm currently trying to stay away from any team favorited by more than a TD, I'll tease it if needed. There has been so much randomness that it seems like taking points with decent teams might be a good strategy.
...Yea sure Indiana U is #13th in the country, at 4-1 these guys got outplayed in the second half today (AT HOME) and only missed the cover by 10.5 points.. Yikes and another teaser loss. I had KY -16.5 in that Indy debacle and I'm now moving them to another teaser play. This is what I have left for today in college basketball: Three team teaser with: Maryland -4, Kansas -1, NC -2.5. Another: Vandy -2.5, KY -16.5, one open. Can't find anything else in NBA..so just GST -9 today to close out a teaser play. NHL: I'm taking Dallas -175 to close out 2 different pars that have already been reduced now to a two team par, (Patriot -7 push last night.) Hedging with Ottawa +155 on the comeback. GLTA tonight.
What is this? I'll be posting my thoughts about the Giants-Redskins game here. That will include everything from the actual game, to the broadcasters, to the commercials, etc. Anything goes. Emmitt Smith may even show up! This page will be updated every five minutes or so, so I hope you join me for this game!
7:07: It would have been cool if Michael Strahan, in the middle of his speech, yelled, "Oh you thought I was gone? Well I'm playing!" then revealed that he was wearing pads underneath his jersey.
7:08: Where's the kickoff concert? I was looking forward to making fun of myself for not knowing any overrated musicians.
7:09: Eli Manning incomplete to Brandon Jacobs. Booooo, Eli you suck!
7:10: Eli converts a third down to Steve Smith. Yay, Eli you're awesome!
7:11: I'm still weirded out by this early start. When they said 7:00 p.m., I assumed there would be some stupid pregame show with crappy musicians. I'm not ready for this. I feel like this game isn't really taking place right now.
7:12: Nice coverage on Plaxico Burress, Skins.
7:14: What was that biotch slap by Brandon Jacobs? He looked like a woman with that slap. If I would have known that Jacobs fights like a chick, I wouldn't have drafted him in the third round of my touchdown league.
7:16: Eli with a great off-balance throw to a receiver who inexplicably caught it... when has that happened before?
7:17: Whoa, who was that hot woman sitting in front of Olivia Manning? They should interview her instead of boring old Archie.
7:19: TOUCHDOWN GIANTS, 7-0
7:20: I have the Giants tonight, but I'm pissed off because I needed Jacobs to score a touchdown for one of my six fantasy leagues. Actually, my anger was a bit quelled with a shot of that hot woman again, who breathed a sigh of relief when she saw Eli stand up after rolling out for a touchdown. Is she Eli's wife or something?
7:22: Good to see Brian Billick can be successful doing something (funny Coors Light commercial) instead of drafting/signing crappy quarterbacks and pretending that they're going to be the next Joe Montana.
7:23: No cardiac arrest for 8,000-year-old John Carney on the kickoff. Awesome.
7:24: Knight Rider premieres Sunday. Will be taken off the air Monday! Because we're FOX and we don't stand by our quality shows; instead we focus on dumb shows like Are You Smarter than a Camp Counselor? or So You Think You Can Play the Triangle?
7:26: Redskins offense looks good. A net of -5 yards. Hey, no turnovers! We're looking good!
7:30: Brandon Jacobs is killing me. First, he slaps someone. Then, he doesn't demand the ball at the one-yard line. And now, he drops a pass. My fantasy team is ruined!
7:32: My bad... I saw a commercial for America's Toughest Jobs and a promo for Knight Rider and I automatically assumed this was FOX. I forgot this game is on NBC. Maybe Knight Rider won't be taken off the air in 24 hours.
7:33: Eli Manning keeps converting third downs. Hey, I'm not surprised... there was a wide disparity between these two teams in my 2008 NFL Power Rankings.
7:35: Great run by Brandon Jacobs! I am no longer angry with him.
7:36: FIELD GOAL GIANTS, 10-0
7:38: Over-under on Redskins net yardage this game: -25. I'm going under.
7:40: False start! My Under -25 yards is looking pretty good.
7:42: Another three-and-out for the Redskins. That's -7 yards of net offense for them. They're on pace for -28 yards, so I'm probably going to win some money tonight.
7:44: Ugh, I hate roughing-the-kicker penalties. Everything short of hacking someone's limbs off with a chainsaw should be allowed.
7:46: A BS roughing the punter call just delayed the inevitable. Redskins go three-and-out again, but are now up to -4 yards of total offense.
7:48: Did anyone see Redskins VP Vinny Cerrato's eyes? They looked like a combination of "Crap, did I just fall asleep? What did I miss?" and "Crap, I'm a terrible general manager, and I have no idea what I'm doing, but I hope no one notices!"
7:52: Wow, it doesn't really matter if Eli is falling over... he'll complete anything downfield. The Redskins really look pathetic right now.
7:54: I love these Coors Light commercials. Getting Jim Mora to nod that he likes shirts with random triangles was classic. And I'm not saying I love the Coors Light commercials because they advertise on my site, though I'll admit that it helps!
8:00: FIELD GOAL GIANTS, 13-0
8:02: Some stats: Eli Manning is 8-of-17 for 121 yards and a rushing touchdowns. It doesn't seem like Eli should have a completion percentage below 50. How did that happen? Anyway, Brandon Jacobs has 43 yards on six carries and no touchdowns, as my fantasy football dreams are getting flushed down the toilet. Derrick Ward, the jerk who's stealing Jacobs' carries, has 21 yards on five touches. Plaxico Burress, meanwhile, has 84 yards on five catches. He's seriously on pace for 240 catches and 4,032 yards this year.
8:06: Clinton Portis is stuffed on third-and-one. Hope you listened to my advice and benched Portis... Not that I did...
8:07: Rookie Durant Brooks may break the all-time NFL career record for punts by the time this game is over.
8:10: I'm still interested in who that chick is in front of Olivia Manning. When this game is 34-0 in the second half, Al Michaels better do an expose on her.
8:12: Oh, I almost forgot. The Redskins now have positive yardage. They now have a grand total of five net yards! High five!
8:15: Pure domination. The Giants have 240 total yards and the Redskins have no pass completions. How is it only 13-0?
8:16: FIELD GOAL GIANTS, 16-0
8:17: How did John Carney nail a 48-yard field goal? If he can hit kicks that long, why was he out of the NFL until a few days ago?
8:19: Whoops, the Carney field goal was a 47-yarder. That explains everything.
8:20: Stop the presses! The Redskins complete their first pass with a minute remaining in the first half!
8:24: TOUCHDOWN REDSKINS, 16-7
8:26: I'm not really sure how that touchdown happened. The Redskins can thank a great kickoff return and a terrible call on a 15-yard face mask. I guess they were bound to get lucky sooner or later. And by lucky, I mean convert a first down against the Giants' defense.
8:27: With that completion, Jason Campbell is now 2-of-6 for 25 yards and a touchdown.
8:28: Did they say Heroes is opening with a 3-hour premiere? If this is true, this could be the best day of my life.
8:33: Cris Collinsworth has lost his mind. He said Chicago's offense will have a "definite uptick," whatever the hell that means.
8:34: Way to entertain your football audience at halftime, NBC. I think I'd rather have FOX's excerpt of Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?
8:39: Everything seems rushed. The game began earlier than it should have. The first half was fast. Now, halftime seemed like five minutes. What's going on here? Am I on speed?
8:41: By the way, Plaxico Burress is on pace for 224 receptions and 3,136 yards. No touchdowns though because Eli will hog all 32.
8:46: Redskins go three-and-out again after a very confusing play in which Santana Moss bobbled the ball, caught it off the turf despite his helmet being off and ran toward the end zone, thinking he wasn't down. The Giants need to stop dicking around and put this game away before a fluke play by the Redskins causes me to lose the thousands I bet on New York.
8:51: Eli is scaring me half to death with some of these throws. Then again, he converted one of those to David Tyree in the Super Bowl.
8:52: Giants stall near midfield, and they're forced to punt for the first time tonight. The Redskins have like 8,000 punts and they're inexplicably down just two scores. I don't get it.
8:56: A Devin Thomas sighting! The Redskins are forced into another fourth-and-one short of midfield, thanks to a big Clinton Portis run. Portis now has 63 rushing yards.
8:58: The Giants need to put together a scoring drive here. Not because they really NEED to because they're up two scores... I may just have a stroke because I have my life savings of $12 on the Giants -4.5. I just hope the feds aren't reading this because I don't want to give them 30 percent of my $12 winnings!
9:01: Brandon Jacobs is awesome, though I'm afraid he's not going to get a touchdown tonight. I even find myself doing those Chris Berman "Mike Alstott" sound effects whenever he runs.
9:02: Interception, Eli Manning. Ugh. Manning overthrew Kevin Boss by a mile. Here come the Redskins for a cheap cover.
9:04: Phew, another three-and-out for the Skins. My $12 is safe for now. I'm still scared the Redskins are going to score a BS touchdown late in the game.
9:09: Fred Smoot is injured. He could be out with a lack of talent for a couple of weeks.
9:14: The Giants now have 19 first downs to Washington's five. At the end of the third quarter, the Giants are still up 16-7, and they're marching downfield.
9:15: I have to wonder why Brandon Jacobs has just five more carries than Derrick Ward right now, whereas Jacobs' yardage kills Ward's, 93 to 39. This is obviously a conspiracy to make me lose in my fantasy leagues.
9:18: The Redskins need to stop wearing yellow shoes. I keep thinking I see flags on the ground until I realize that there are two of them and they're walking... Yeah, I'm definitely on something.
9:20: New York stalls around midfield, thanks to an Andre Carter sack. The Redskins are pinned inside the 10, but they're going to score a touchdown here because the football gods hate me (probably for making fun of Emmitt Smith so much).
9:26: Jason Campbell is now 5-of-12 for 40 yards and a touchdown. Better than 1-of-4 for 3 yards and a pick against the Jaguars last week. He's making major strides in this West Coast offense.
9:27: A third-and-15 forces the Redskins to punt. This is Durant Brooks' seventh punt.
9:29: It's not even 9:30 yet, and there are only 10 minutes remaining in this game. It's going to be over in less than three hours.
9:32: Going out on a limb and calling Plaxico Burress (10 catches, 133 yards) for the Horse Trailer.
9:34: Manning just nearly gave me a heart attack. He stared down Burress and almost threw a pick.
9:35: Eli is sacked on third-and-seven at midfield. Ugh. I'm telling you, a cheap touchdown is coming.
9:37: Ed Hochuli with an awful unnecessary roughness call on the Giants. Clinton Portis wasn't down.
9:41: The Redskins have inexplicably marched past midfield. A touchdown is coming. Bettors will be crying everywhere. I can feel it. I have sixth sense about these things.
9:43: Yes, Al. A field goal sounds very lucrative for everyone. Let's just hope Jim Zorn realizes that getting a field goal is the same thing as scoring a touchdown, so going for it on fourth down would be dumb.
9:45: Santana Moss drops a ball on second down, and Campbell pulls his best Trent Green impression by throwing the ball three years on a third-and-a-mile. I'm a fan.
9:48: Punt the ball Skins!
9:49: Should have punted it... turnover on downs. They're in poor field position now.
9:51: Yay! After this game, we get to watch a boring political event where people make false promises and other people applaud them because they're told to.
9:54: The Giants are inches shy of a first down, so the Redskins will be getting the ball back. I have the Over on heart attacks from football bettors in the next five minutes, whatever it is.
9:55: What the hell was that, Feagles? Jeff Feagles hit the ball off the side of his foot. The Giants should have just gone for it.
9:56: Redskins past midfield with a minute left. My $12 is on the line!
9:58: Fourth-and-two for the Redskins. Here it is!
9:59: First down, Redskins, but the clock is ticking down. There are 13 seconds remaining. One touchdown coming up.
10:00: Campbell incomplete to Santana Moss in the end zone. Seven seconds left!
10:01: The game is over! I don't even know what happened because Hochuli's mic didn't come on, but the game is over! Victory is mine!
10:02: See what I mean about everything being rushed? The game started quickly and lasted just three hours, halftime zoomed by, and we didn't even get the Horse Trailer! Who cares about some stupid political convention (pertaining to both parties)? I want to know who the Horse Trailer was!
10:03: Ugh, for a man who just doubled up his life savings of $12, I'm pretty pissed off. Poor coverage by NBC. No touchdowns from Brandon Jacobs. And it's really $11.90; not $12. I'm out, but first let's go to Emmitt Smith, who has some post game analysis. Take it away, Emmitt!
10:06: "Thank you. When you watch this game in the first halves, you would think the Giants would blow... blowed... blowed... out the Washington Redskin. But the Redskins defense rised up, took control of the football, and lay down the hammers on the New York Jets. Jason Caldwell played really good in the second half. He completed two passes in the first halves... but only uhh... the rest in the second halves. I would like to give him some advice however. James, you need to trust your tight end, Chris Cooler. He is a very good player and an All Pro Bowler. If you throw him the ball, he can catch 70 passes and 900 yards every week this season."
10:10: Thanks Emmitt! So, what did everyone else think about this game?
VBSiena: What a terrible game to watch.
Adam Maciasz: This game is actually kind of boring.
Schmidty: What trash!
Walter: Who's the Horse Trailer player!?!?!?!?!
Oops, that's me. But yeah, I'll say it again. Poor coverage by NBC. Maybe we all needed speed to enjoy it.