Oakland Raiders Rookies Forecast

By Charlie Campbell – @draftcampbell

Solid Starter

Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA – Round 1
Taking Kolton Miller in the top 20 was a bit of a reach for Oakland, but that is getting to be the price that has to be paid at a premium position. The Raiders needed offensive tackle help in the immediate and long-term future. Left tackle Donald Penn is aging and coming off an injury, while right tackle is an open competition. Miller is likely to start on the right side and eventually take over for Penn as the blind-side protector for Derek Carr.

Miller has good length for pass protection plus quick feet and agility. When he plays with good leverage, he uses his feet to acheive depth in his drop to cut off speed rushers. His length makes him difficult to run around, and he is able to adjust to fight off defenders to give his quarterback enough time to get rid of the ball. Miller can hold up against bull rushers, but could use more strength in his base for the NFL. As a run blocker, Miller has a mean streak and blocks through the whistle. When he plays low, he flashes the ability to drive block somewhat in the ground game. Miller needs to get stronger to knock defenders off the ball and do a better job of sustaining his blocks. Perhaps Raiders offensive line coach Tom Cable can help Miller to be more consistent in the NFL.

The 6-foot-9, 309-pound Miller has to avoid playing too high in the NFL, so staying low and bending well will be constant points of emphasis for him. Even if he doesn’t work out at left tackle, Miller looks like a safe pick to at least be a quality starter on the right side. In speaking to sources from other teams, they felt Miller won’t ever be truly dominant, but they thought he was safe to be an average, if not good, starter in the NFL.

2017: Obi Melifonwu, S
2016: Shilique Calhoun, DE
2015: Clive Walford, TE
2014: Gabe Jackson, G
2013: Sio Moore, LB

Most Likely To Bust

Arden Key, DE, LSU – Round 3
Key was the ultimate boom-or-bust pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. He is a top-10 talent, but has bad character concerns that are similar to Randy Gregory or Tim Williams. From what Key did at LSU, there is no doubt that he is a dynamic player when he is healthy, in shape, and focused. Key was one of my favorite players in the 2018 NFL Draft, and I kept him ranked highly in my big board throughout the draft process. After speaking with sources, however, I think Key’s personal problems are likely to lead to him being a bust.

Key flashed a ton of potential as a freshman, totaling 41 tackles with 6.5 for a loss, five sacks and one pass broken up. In 2016, Key played better, had a bigger presence, and impacted the game more than Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, who went No.1 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Key recorded 56 tackles with 14.5 for a loss, 12 sacks, three forced fumbles and three passes broken up on the year. Key’s sophomore season was on a par with dominant sophomore years from the likes of Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Joey Bosa.

Key is phenomenal to use his speed to get upfield, sink his hips to dip underneath the block, and then rip with his inside arm to prevent blockers from getting a hold of him. From there, he uses his tremendous closing speed to finish the rush and can lay some hard hits on quarterbacks. Key has excellent agility with fluid athleticism. That allows him to be very agile in the open field and easily redirect to the signal-caller.

For the NFL, Key could be a dynamic edge defender with the ability to take over games and help neutralize an elite franchise quarterback. However, I think Key is going to have repeated issues with suspensions because he was unable to fix his problems at LSU despite taking some drastic measures. Thus, I think Key could go the route of Randy Gregory and miss out on a great NFL career because of his issues.

2017: Eddie Vanderdoes, DT
2016: Jihad Ward, DE
2015: Mario Edwards, DT
2014: Derek Carr, QB
2013: D.J. Hayden, CB

Potential Boom Pick

Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin – Round 4
If Nelson had not suffered a minor knee injury leading up to the 2018 NFL Draft, he easily could have been a second-round pick, which was where he was grading out across the league prior to his injury. Nelson is a gritty man cover corner who plays the ball extremely well. The 5-foot-11, 200-pounder is put together well with strength and quickness. He was a real steal for Oakland because he should be ready for training camp and landing a player who could be a good starter in the fourth round was tremendous value.

One of the traits that stands out the most is Nelson’s ability to play the ball. He tracks passes well downfield and is adept to locate the football while maintaining coverage. Nelson times his hands well and is very good at slapping passes away. He uses his size well to fight receivers and battle them for position without drawing flags. Nelson is a physical cornerback who really challenges receivers. He plays disciplined football and sits hard on routes, challenging wideouts to get by him. Nelson has good hands to slap passes away, but one would like to see him intercept more passes rather than simply breaking them up. He has lined up in press man, off man, and zone.

The Raiders need cornerback talent to emerge. Leon Hall was signed this offseason, but the aging veteran is not a long-term starter. Rashaan Melvin is also better as a depth player. Once Nelson gets healthy, he could quickly emerge as a starter across from Gareon Conley. Nelson was one of the steals of the 2018 NFL Draft, and I think he has boom potential for Oakland.

2017: Gareon Conley, CB
2016: Karl Joseph, S
2015: Amari Cooper, WR
2014: Khalil Mack, LB
2013: Menelik Watson, OT

Future Depth Player

Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan – Round 5
Hurst was an early-round talent who slid to the fifth round because of concerns about a heart condition. The 6-foot-1, 292-pounder struggles as a run defender and can get pushed around, but he is a very fast gap penetrator who is an asset as an interior pass-rusher. Hurst may never develop into a three-down starter because of his limitations as a run defender. However, he could be an excellent interior designated pass-rusher who rotates into the game. For the NFL, Hurst would be best as a three-technique disruptor in a 4-3 defense. That is really the only position in which he has the chance to become an every-down player. At the very least, Hurst should be a good rotational backup to rush the passer in the NFL – as long as the heart condition doesn’t end his career early.

2017: David Sharpe, OT
2016: Connor Cook, QB
2015: Jon Feliciano, G
2014: Keith McGill, CB
2013: Tyler Wilson, QB

Walt’s 2018 NFL Draft Grades:

15. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA C+ Grade
Meh. This is kind of a reach but not an overly egregious one. Kolton Miller is an athletic tackle who should be able to start on the blind side one day. In the meantime, he can play right tackle, and he’d be a big upgrade over what the Raiders had there last year. Miller won’t have to wait long to start on the blind side, given Donald Penn’s age and health concerns.

I’m not a fan of this pick, but I don’t hate it. The Raiders really wanted Mike McGlinchey. He was snatched off the board one pick earlier, so the Raiders did the right thing and moved down, so I think they should be credited for that.

57. P.J. Hall, DT, Sam Houston State B Grade
The Raiders tried to sign Ndamukong Suh, but failed to pry him away from the Rams. They really needed a defensive tackle, and Hall is an explosive interior presence. The consensus was that Hall would be a third-round prospect, but it’s the end of the second frame right now, so I wouldn’t say this is a reach, or anything. This is a decent pick.

65. Brandon Parker, OT, North Carolina A&T C- Grade
The Raiders already selected one offensive tackle, so why move up for another one? I don’t get it. I don’t mind the position, as the Raiders needed to add two tackles with Donald Penn injured and in decline, but this trade up didn’t seem necessary at all.

87. Arden Key, DE, LSU B+ Grade
Arden Key is a first-round talent. He’s a great athlete who should be able to develop into a stellar player if he stays clean. The “staying clean” part of it is a problem, however, as Key has both off-the-field and medical problems. Still, in the third round, why not take a gamble?

110. Nick Nelson, CB, Wisconsin A Grade
This seems like a great value pick for the Raiders. Nick Nelson was seen as a second-round prospect before he hurt his knee during the pre-draft process. However, teams were optimistic about his ability to return soon, so Nelson should contribute for the Raiders in the near future, filling a big need at cornerback.

140. Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan A+ Grade
Wow! What a great pick. This might just be the best selection in all of Day 3. The Raiders are getting a first-round prospect, an interior disruptor who will put lots of heat on opposing quarterbacks. Hurst fell because of a scary heart condition, but the fifth round is a great time to take a chance like this. What else could the Raiders do, take a special-teams scrub?

173. Johnny Townsend, P, Florida MILLEN PUNTS BALL INTO THE BACKSIDE Grade
The only thing worse than taking a punter in the fifth round is reaching for a punter in the fifth round. The Raiders wanted JK Scott, so they panicked and selected a worse punter, all because they didn’t like their punter’s antics. Dumb.

216. Azeem Victor, LB, Washington B- Grade
Azeem Victor was seen as a second-day prospect once upon a time. Several suspensions and a DUI later, he’s now a sixth-round pick. Victor did not play well last year either. Unless he turns his life around, he won’t last very long in the pros. I don’t mind this risk here, but this pick will probably amount to nothing.

228. Marcell Ateman, WR, Oklahoma State A Grade
I had Marcell Ateman slotted to the Raiders’ Bay Area rival 49ers in the fifth round, so I like the value here in the seventh frame. Ateman can’t separate very well, but he’s largely framed and has nice ball skills. He could easily stick in the pros.

2018 NFL Draft Team Grade: B- . Follow Walter @walterfootball for updates.

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