BigTrends 2011 Preakness Analysis Preakness Picks & Analysis

The 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown is the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico outside Baltimore, and every year horse racing fans hope that the Derby winner can pick up this 2nd leg ahead of the Belmont Stakes in 3 weeks for a shot at the Triple Crown.

It hasn’t happened since 1978 with Affirmed, and I’m betting we won’t see another Triple Crown this year as well. Animal Kingdom is a very nice horse, but Pimlico is a very different race track that favors speed and puts the late closing horses at a disadvantage.

Here’s my best bets relative to the odds:

My projected order of finish:

# 7) Midnight Interlude (15-1 morning line):

While the chalk would be a great story, I think the Preakness will be won by a speed horse rather than a closer. Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby and after a 16th place finish in the Derby, why might I be interested?

Because he’s working really well, and the Derby is simply too many horses with too much room for bad racing luck. Trainer Bob Baffert is a pro at having horses ready for big races, jockey Matin Garcia won this race last year on Lookin at Lucky (who I had then, though he was a co-favorite), good connections and an odds board that practically throws him out of the top 5 choices make me think there’s good value here.

# 9) Mucho Macho Man (6-1):

I liked him in the Derby and he just made his move a little late and was flying at the end for 3rd. This horse is the most consistent horse in the field in my view, only off the board once in 9 starts, so expect him to be in the mix at the end.

#11 ) Animal Kingdom (2-1):

I liek the horse and his impressive winning finish in the Derby, I just think 2-1 is due to the crowd hope for a Triple Crown winner. While I think that’s far too optimistic in this case, I still expect him to finish strongly and get a piece.

Other worthy longshots:

#1) Astrology (15-1) � never off the board, like him for 3rd or 4th here,

#3 King Congie (20-1) � my issue is his slow workouts of late),

#13 Concealed Identity (30-1) � won his last 2 races and they were on this track at Pimlico, maybe a shot at 3rd for exotics).

My betting strategy:

$10 Win/Place on 7 = $20

$2 Exacta Box 7,9,11 = $12

$1 Trifecta Box 7,9, 11, 1 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box 7,9, 11, 13 = $24

Enjoy the Preakness and have a great weekend!

Price Headley

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