These are my 2014 NFL Betting Props. I did well with the team props in 2011 (4-3, +$325), but struggled last year, going 2-3-1. Hopefully I can rebound this season.
2014 NFL Betting Props: Teams
Buffalo Bills: Under 6.5 Wins I don’t see the Bills winning seven games this year. E.J. Manuel has regressed, Sammy Watkins can’t seem to stay healthy, and the defense has lost a ton of personnel. The organization also seems distracted with the ownership sale and the possibility of moving to Toronto. This is going to be a long season for Buffalo.
Betting 2 Units (+100) on 5Dimes
Carolina Panthers: Under 8.5 Wins It’s a shame there’s so much juice on the under; otherwise, I’d bet much more on it. The Panthers are going to take a major step backward this year. Everyone is focusing on their receiving corps, but their offensive line is in worse shape. Throw in Cam Newton’s injuries and Greg Hardy’s off-the-field issues, and you have a recipe for a very disappointing season.
Betting 0.5 Units (-235) on Bovada
Dallas Cowboys: Under 7.5 Wins It’s an annual tradition to bet on the Cowboys under. Dallas is especially awful this season. The defense from last year, which allowed the third-most yardage of all time, has gotten worse because DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher and Sean Lee are all gone (the latter is out for the season). The Cowboys are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Betting 3 Units (-175) on Bovada
Denver Broncos: Over 11.5 Wins I usually hate betting overs because public money inflates numbers upward, but I’ll make an exception with the Broncos, who have a legitimate shot to win 15 or even 16 games this year. As good as they were in 2013, they’re even better now. I love that we’re barely laying any juice with them.
Betting 2 Units (-105) on 5Dimes
New Orleans Saints: Over 10.5 Wins Another over, though I’ll note that I won with the Saints’ over last year. New Orleans has gotten better this offseason, and it has such a ridiculously easy schedule to navigate through.
Betting 2 Units (-135) on Bovada
New York Giants: Under 8 Wins How are the Giants going to win nine or more games? They can’t block, their defense is mediocre, and Eli Manning is currently playing like a dead animal. This is one of my favorite plays. New York looks like a five-win team to me.
Betting 3 Units (-125) on 5Dimes
New York Jets: Under 7 Wins The Jets are one of the five worst teams in the NFL, and the beauty of it is, the national media is so focused on Johnny Manziel that they haven’t picked up on it! Outside of its defensive line, New York does not have one positive unit. The quarterbacks are garbage. The running backs are garbage. The receivers are garbage. The secondary is garbage. The linebackers and offensive line are nothing special. With higher expectations this year, the Jets will capsize, winning a maximum of four games.
Betting 4 Units (+105) on 5Dimes
Oakland Raiders: Under 5 Wins Five is such a low number, but the Raiers are one of the worst teams in the league, right along with the New York Jets. They signed all of these veteran players, but they’ll quit once they realize they don’t have a shot at the playoffs. It’s likely that Oakland goes something like 3-13.
Betting 3 Units (+110) on Bovada
2014 NFL Betting Props: Players
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: Under 600.5 Rushing Yards Cam Newton didn’t hit 600 rushing yards last year, yet he was healthy. Now, he’s dealing with multiple injuries, including a troublesome foot. He may not even last all 16 games behind his dreadful offensive line.
Betting 1 Unit (-115) on Bovada
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: Under 4,000 Passing Yards Jay Cutler has thrown for more than 4,000 yards just once in his career. He hasn’t been able to play 16-game seasons. I doubt he’ll make it all 16 in 2014, so I think the under is a safe bet.
Betting 2 Units (-105) on Bovada
Geno Atkins, DT, Bengals: Under 8.5 Sacks Geno Atkins has been over 8.5 sacks just once in his career. He’s coming off a torn ACL and just didn’t have the same burst in his only preseason game.
Betting 2 Units (-115) on Bovada
Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Under 23.5 Passing Touchdowns Eli Manning has played like a rotting carcass in five preseason games this summer. I’ll be shocked if he makes it to 24 touchdowns.
Betting 2 Units (-115) on Bovada
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