2012 NCAA Tournament Picks: South

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Western Kentucky
Not that it really matters, but I like Western Kentucky to beat Mississippi Valley State in the “opening round.” Western Kentucky has a sub-.500 record, but it has played much better since the school made a coaching change. The Hilltoppers will be the sacrificial lamb in the real opening round.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 1 Kentucky

No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Connecticut
Everyone is picking Connecticut to “upset” Iowa State, and so am I. I can’t see Jim Calhoun losing in the first round. The Huskies have more talent than the Cyclones, who have dropped four of their final 10 games, including their opening conference tournament battle against crappy Texas.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 9 Connecticut

No. 5 Wichita State vs. No. 12 Virginia-Commonwealth
I love this Wichita State team. It does everything well and nothing poorly. Many are going to have VCU as the classic 12-5 upset, but this Ram team is not the one that made the Final Four run last year. They have serious trouble scoring at times, ranking 88th in offensive efficiency. Wichita State is ninth. It’s also worth noting that VCU has to make a long trip out to Portland. That could slow them down in the second half.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 5 Wichita State

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 New Mexico State
Indiana has had trouble winning on the road this year, and that will hurt them – but not in this contest. The Hoosiers just have too much talent for New Mexico State to handle. They have the superior offense and defense.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 4 Indiana

No. 6 UNLV vs. No. 11 Colorado
Colorado made a great run to win the Pac-12 tournament, but crap teams that unexpectedly win their conference tournament often tend to disappoint in the Big Dance. UNLV is the better team anyway; Colorado’s No. 132 offense is not going to get it done.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 6 UNLV

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 South Dakota State
This is a popular upset pick, but South Dakota State ranks 127th in defense. There’s no way they’ll be able to slow down Baylor. Besides, the Bears’ hideous uniforms may blind some of the Jackrabbit players.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 3 Baylor

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Xavier
I’m picking Xavier. Everyone is complaining about South Florida in the NCAA Tournament, but the Bulls almost beat Notre Dame. The Irish then were blown out against Louisville.

The Musketeers tend to do well in the NCAA Tournament. They’re definitely not the same team this year, but I still feel like they’re better than Notre Dame, who accumulated wins at home. The Irish’s signature win came against an overrated Syracuse squad that was missing Fab Melo.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 10 Xavier

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Lehigh
The Blue Devils aren’t a good team, but they’re not losing to Lehigh in the first round. My senior editor, who lives near Lehigh, tells me there are many hot chicks at that school, by the way. Just thought you should know.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 2 Duke

2012 NCAA Tournament: South Bracket Second Round

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Connecticut
This matchup will garner lots of national attention, but it should be a blowout. Connecticut’s No. 56 defense won’t be able to slow down this monstrous Kentucky squad playing in what essentially is a home game for them.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 1 Kentucky

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Wichita State
I already mentioned that I have great admiration for the Wheat Shockers. I’m expecting Wichita State to advance to the Sweet 16 against an Indiana squad that is missing a key reserve. Indiana hasn’t been able to win as a visitor this year, and teams that struggle on the road usually don’t go far in the NCAA Tournament.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 5 Wichita State

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 6 UNLV
Baylor will choke at some point in the NCAA Tournament, but it won’t be against UNLV. The Bears are just too talented. Besides, as I mentioned, teams that can’t win on the road struggle in March. UNLV had a losing road record, and also happened to drop four of its final eight games.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 3 Baylor

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 10 Xavier
I’d like to pick overrated Duke to lose early, but that’s not happening against Xavier. Why couldn’t Memphis or Saint Louis be in position to play the Blue Devils in the second round? Ugh!

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 2 Duke

2012 NCAA Tournament: South Bracket Sweet 16

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 5 Wichita State
How much do I love Wichita State? If the Wheat Shockers were in Syracuse or North Carolina’s bracket, I’d give serious consideration to having them advance to the Final Four. Unfortunately for them, Kentucky is a juggernaut.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 1 Kentucky

No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Baylor
Duke can beat anyone if it hits its threes. The problem is that the Blue Devils rely too much on the deep ball. They’re also mediocre on defense (63rd). Baylor has the better stop unit (33rd) and seem to be playing pretty well right now. Beating Kansas in the Big XII Tournament was pretty impressive.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 3 Baylor

2012 NCAA Tournament: South Bracket Elite Eight

No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Baylor
Here’s where Baylor will choke. Perry Jones will be expected to step up and help his team knock off this great Kentucky squad. He and the rest of the Bears will come up short. Kentucky may have an easier time with Baylor than Wichita State.

2012 NCAA Tournament Pick: No. 1 Kentucky

2012 NCAA Tournament Picks:
South | West | East | Midwest | Final Four 2012 NCAA Tournament Home
2012 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdowns:
East | West | Midwest | South
2012 NCAA Tournament Resources:
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