NFL MVP Odds Breakdown: Outlook Through Week 3

It’s only Week 3, so nobody should be clearing space on the trophy shelf yet. However, the sample size is enough to start thinking about the NFL MVP race. Josh Allen is still the favorite, as was the case in the preseason. There are fellow former winners chasing him, and a few players looking to claim the trophy for the first time. Odds will surely jump around often after the next big performance, or blow up, until the season is more established. Regardless, it’s time to look at the current odds to take home the NFL’s most prestigious award.

Josh Allen Current MVP Odds: +260

Allen looked like the obvious favorite through two weeks. He threw for 334 yards and accounted for four touchdowns against Houston, then followed it with five total touchdowns against Detroit. Buffalo scored 36 and 41 points in those wins. When Allen gets going, the Bills can turn a close game into a track meet pretty quickly. Week 3 was less convincing. He threw two picks against the Chargers, and Buffalo gave the ball away five times. The Bills still won, with Allen scoring twice on the ground, but James Cook’s 154 rushing yards did a lot of the heavy lifting.

Allen has 11 total touchdowns through three games, and Buffalo is 3-0. The only concern is turnovers, as Allen is known to make some head-scratching plays alongside his jaw-dropping ones.

Brock Purdy Current MVP Odds: +425

Brock Purdy’s MVP odds have skyrocketed through 3 weeks. He opened with three touchdown passes in a 27-7 win over the Rams, nearly played a perfect passing game against Miami, then threw four more touchdowns when Arizona forced the 49ers into a 36-30 shootout. That’s nine passing touchdowns, one interception, and a 3-0 record.

Purdy finished fourth in the 2023 MVP voting, and we’ve heard the same debate about his supporting cast ever since. With multiple receivers hurt, he's broken that narrative so far this season. 49ers fans have seen it for years, but the rest of the league is waking up to the fact that Purdy is an elite, MVP-caliber quarterback. He has to keep this pace up, of course. But through three games, he’s played like someone who should be right behind Allen.

Lamar Jackson Current MVP Odds: +600

Jackson’s season has already had a little of everything. He put up 324 passing yards in Baltimore’s opening win over Indianapolis, struggled along with the offense in a Week 2 loss to New Orleans, then helped the Ravens pull out a 34-31 win over Dallas in Brazil. The throw to Zay Flowers that set up the winning field goal against Dallas was a potential MVP-signature moment.

Jackson has won this award twice, so there’s no mystery about his ceiling. The question is whether Baltimore can keep up with the others in wins.

Patrick Mahomes Current MVP Odds: +800

Kansas City is 3-0, and Mahomes is starting to look a lot more like the guy who some already regard as the GOAT. He threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns in a tight win over Indianapolis, then completed 20 of 24 passes against Miami. He has seven passing touchdowns through three games.

Last season wasn’t up to his usual standard, which makes this start more interesting than another routine Chiefs winning streak. Mahomes hasn’t missed a beat after a season-ending injury less than a year ago. It’s easy to overlook someone like Mahomes, who we all expect greatness from, and voters are always looking for reasons to give the award to someone new. However, it’s hard to ignore Mahomes’ start to the season.

Joe Burrow Current MVP Odds: +850

Burrow and the Bengals started 2-0, even if the offense hadn’t hit full speed. He threw one touchdown against Tampa Bay and two in a 20-6 win over Houston. His best passing game came in Week 3: 282 yards and three touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Naturally, that was the one Cincinnati lost because the defense couldn’t stop Aaron Rodgers. The strip sack on the final drive was a brutal ending, but Burrow played well. He has six touchdown passes and just one interception so far.

Burrow’s challenge is familiar. He can put up excellent numbers, but an MVP case needs the Bengals to keep winning, too. Cincinnati is 2-1, so there’s no reason to count him out yet.

By Jake Koehler

Jake is a sports betting writer at SportsbooksOnline.com, covering the latest sportsbooks, odds news, promos, and betting features across the NFL and beyond. He regularly writes guest articles for Walterfootball, covering everything from predictions to sports betting insights.