The NFL Draft is one of the biggest events on the calendar. While the Super Bowl and the games that lead up to it are the main attraction, there aren’t many other events on the league schedule that grips fans as much as the draft.
It’s a time when fans get excited about the future of their team. They get to see the next crop of talent enter the league and potentially help to change the fortunes of the team. Some have had immediate impacts as rookies in the league, with quarterback Jayden Daniels a notable recent example.
As a result of their freshness in the league, it gives bettors something to consider. Once drafted, there is every chance that they can have an impact, which leads sportsbooks to make changes to the odds they offer for their rookie season.
This is why many believe there can be value in future bets like placing stakes on the next potential Super Bowl champion, as they recognize odds can shift. It is possible to find other strategies and betting tips when you visit and check NFL futures bets at The Sports Geek, with the site offering a comprehensive overview.
Have there been examples of how the NFL draft has changed odds?
Before examining how the NFL Draft impacts odds and betting for the following season, it is helpful to explore some previous examples to highlight just how much a selection by one team can shift the lines.
Looking back at the 2024 NFL Draft (as that is the most recent season to have been completed), we can see that there were three notable examples in which the odds were shifted to reflect the choices three organizations had made.
|
Team |
Key Draft Move |
Post-Draft Odds Movement |
Outcome |
|
Chicago Bears |
Drafted QB Caleb Williams |
Super Bowl odds improved from +4500 to +4000 |
Minor shift due to high expectations |
|
Minnesota Vikings |
Drafted top QB prospect |
Odds shortened from +8500 to +8000 |
Reflected optimism for draft impact |
|
Baltimore Ravens |
Less impactful picks |
Odds lengthened from +950 to +1000 |
Cautious outlook post-draft |
What happens once draft picks have been made?
As can be seen from the examples highlighted above, bookmakers can have a tendency to react to the selections that have been made by NFL teams and adjust the odds that they offer.
As seen with the Minnesota Vikings, their decision to take J.J. McCarthy in the first round (#10 overall) helped to boost their odds slightly in terms of being a Super Bowl contender. It was unfortunate that he went down with a season-ending torn meniscus injury after the first preseason game. The Chicago Bears also experienced a positive shift in terms of the odds offered, with Caleb Williams going #1 overall, moving lines because of the high expectations many placed upon him.
With players that are seen as individuals with the potential to have an immediate impact, sportsbooks will often shift odds to reflect the buzz and anticipation around them. This may include markets such as win totals, division titles, and Super Bowl betting. As shown, a struggling team landing a franchise QB or top prospect may see its betting odds improve almost overnight, while other teams’ odds may lengthen as a result.
The resulting movement of odds and lines following the NFL Draft can present several opportunities for bettors. Bettors may find additional value for some bets that are available that weren’t previously available before. For instance, while the Baltimore Ravens arguably made less impactful picks than rivals, they still have a strong roster. Many may have felt the lengthening of their odds presented value, especially with Lamar Jackson at QB and Derrick Henry in the backfield.
At the same time, bettors may have spotted that there was value elsewhere if they already knew what they were looking for. Mock drafts are used by many, including sportsbooks, but they aren’t always reliable. Many have gotten things wrong, and some bettors may have spotted certain things that mock draft analysts weren’t mentioning or picking up on. If a bettor was confident about something, they could use it to their advantage and get more value out of the odds that were being listed.
Do bookmakers like the NFL draft?
While the event can be a potentially lucrative one for the sports betting industry, as more eyes become interested in placing bets due to the excitement generated, it can also be a time that many oddsmakers dislike.
Sportsbooks may feel that they are at a disadvantage. They don’t have all of the information that they would usually have for certain events, which can mean odds aren’t priced accurately to begin with. This can allow college football fans who bet to identify potential value and get a better price than if they were to wait for the draft, especially if they recognize where the player is heading.
Nonetheless, the NFL draft is an event that is unlike any other, and each time it comes around, the excitement and betting handle placed is more than enough to keep sportsbooks happy for another year.
