NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2024 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2024): 6-6 (-$375)
2024 NFL Picks: 6-6 (-$375)

NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I’m posting this pick early – this is being written on Aug. 5 – because of the injury that Justin Herbert suffered in training camp. Herbert has a plantar fascia injury that will keep him out of action for a few weeks. He could return for this game, but it’s likely that he will be hindered if he does. In fact, a sports injury medical doctor suggested that Herbert will be bothered by the injury all year.

I wanted to post this pick just in case there is pessimism regarding Herbert’s injury. If Herbert were to be ruled out, the Raiders would move to -2.5 or -3, so I wanted to lock in the +3. Herbert’s backup, Easton Stick, isn’t good enough to combat Las Vegas’ elite defense. The Raiders were seventh in defensive EPA last year, and they added Christian Wilkins this offseason. Wilkins, Maxx Crosby and the rest of the defensive front will have a big advantage against the Chargers offensive line. Ra’shawn Slater is an excellent left tackle, but he had two of his worst performances of 2023 against Crosby, and that was without Wilkins creating mayhem in the interior. This pressure will be too much for Stick to handle.

If Herbert ends up playing, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Again, the medical expert said that Herbert won’t be completely healthy all year, so it will be difficult for an immobile Herbert to combat the Raiders and their great pass rush, especially with a new receiving corps. The Chargers will want to run the ball to keep Herbert/Stick safe, but the Raiders were second versus the rush last year.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders don’t have the best quarterback situation, but they at least have some stability entering this season. A year ago, they started the year with Jimmy Garoppolo, who wasn’t healthy. Aidan O’Connell took over in the middle of the season. He had some nice performances, but was inconsistent. This was expected, given that he was a rookie.

O’Connell now has experience, though it remains to be seen if he or Gardner Minshew will be the starting quarterback. Minshew nearly led the Colts to the playoffs last year, and now he’ll be operating with a talented trio of receivers in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers. The Chargers have some dubious starters in their secondary and linebacking corps, so they’ll have trouble defending these skill players.

The one edge the Chargers may have is in regard to their pass rush, as Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa return for another season. It must be noted, however, that unlike Slater, Kolton Miller was outstanding in this matchup last year, so he can keep one of the Charger edge rushers at bay. The Raiders have some young blockers, but I don’t trust them to keep the other Charger edge rusher out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’m locking in the Raiders +3 -105 (available at FanDuel) for four units. As stated, if Herbert is eventually ruled out, the Raiders will be favored in a great matchup for them. And if Herbert plays, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent.

Frankly, I’m shocked this line is still on the board. Bovada has taken this game down, and some other sportsbooks may follow suit at the first sign of pessimism from Herbert. That may not happen, but I wanted to get this number before it goes away.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Herbert has been cleared to play, so there goes my gambit of submitting my pick early did not pan out. That’s fine though, as I still don’t expect Herbert to be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s one major injury heading into this game, and that would be Malcolm Koonce being out. That’s not ideal, but I still like the Raiders against a hobbled Justin Herbert.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Chargers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Someone is betting on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 63% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Chargers are 20-30 ATS in San Angeles.

Justin Herbert is 11-17 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Jayden Daniels will be making his first NFL start. Ideally, he would have been granted an easier opponent, though it’s not the Tennessee juggernaut that Caleb Williams will be tasked with slaying. This statement may confuse you because the Buccaneers were very poor against aerial attacks last year, thanks to a diminished pass rush and a weak group of cornerbacks.

So, why is this an unfavorable matchup for Daniels? It’s because the Buccaneers tend to play very well against mobile quarterbacks, thanks to their speedy linebackers. Granted, Devin White is gone, so perhaps this won’t be the case anymore, but Lavonte David is still patrolling the middle of the field.

Daniels also won’t be able to rely much on Brian Robinson Jr. The Buccaneers tend to be better versus the run than the pass – and not just by default – so Robinson will have trouble finding running room in this game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers lost a key linebacker this offseason, the Redskins were able to acquire a pair. It’s been a long time since the Redskins have possessed skilled linebackers – perhaps going back as far as the London Fletcher days – but things have changed now. Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu will provide stability at the position that Washington has lacked for quite a while.

The improved linebacker play, combined with the talent on the defensive line, should allow the Redskins to clamp down on the run rather well. Rachaad White was already a mediocre rusher, so he won’t get much against Washington’s linebackers.

Cornerback, however, is a different story. This has also been a big problem for the Redskins, but things have worsened with Kendall Fuller gone. It’s not a good thing to be weak at cornerback against the Buccaneers, who have a pair of talented receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The latter could be especially productive in this game.

RECAP: I noted earlier that the Patriots are one of two teams that have a rookie quarterback-rookie head coach combo in Week 1 this year, which is almost an automatic fade for me. The second is the Redskins. Granted, Dan Quinn isn’t a rookie head coach, but this will be his first season with the Redskins, so he’s still learning all the personnel and whatnot. There will be an adjustment period for him.

So, will I be betting the Buccaneers? No way. I have no interest in siding with them, given that they’re potentially a bottom-10 NFL team. I do like their receivers against the Redskin cornerbacks, but the rest of the team is so blah that I can’t stomach betting them as more than a field goal favorite over anyone. I’ll side with them for office pool purposes, but only because of Washington’s inexperience.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Redskins to drag this spread down to -3 -120 in some locations. I guess the professional bettors don’t have my new coach/new quarterback policy!

SATURDAY NOTES: This game might have the worst weather of the week, as forecasts are calling for heavy rain. This gives the team with the better running game more of an advantage. That would be the Redskins because of Jayden Daniels. However, I’m still not going to bet Washington because of the inexperience.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Decent lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 60% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Road Team is 133-92 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 40-71 ATS at home in the previous 109 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, 87 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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DENVER OFFENSE: There will be three rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1. We already discussed Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels. Bo Nix will get the nod for the Broncos after an excellent preseason. Before anyone gets excited, however, Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett both had amazing preseason performances in recent years, and we’ve seen how their careers have unfolded. Nix’s showings in August will have no bearing on how he plays during real game action.

The challenge for Nix in this game will be dealing with Seattle’s secondary. The Seahawks have assembled a group of talented defensive backs that will cause problems for Denver’s receivers. The Broncos have nothing at the position beyond Courtland Sutton, and even he’s an overrated commodity.

There is good new for Nix, however, and that would be the injury to Uchenna Nwosu. Seattle had a much worse defense last year when Nwosu was injured. Not only was its pass rush diminished, but it also had issues stopping the run. Javonte Williams could have success in this matchup.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks won’t be the only team to struggle against the run in this game. Denver was far better versus the rush last year, but that may not be the case in 2024. The team lost talented linebacker Josey Jewell to the Panthers, and the Broncos had always been worse against the run when Jewell wasn’t in the lineup.

Kenneth Walker should be able to pick up decent chunks of yardage. I was skeptical of Walker’s 2024 outlook several months ago, but that changed when the front office signed Connor Williams, one of the best run-blocking linemen in the NFL. His presence will help Walker immeasurably.

Geno Smith will need to lean on Walker because of the coaching changes. Smith’s career was revived by Dave Canales two years ago, and then Greg Olson kept it alive. Both are gone, so Smith may regress, although he will be somewhat buoyed by a talented and deep receiving corps. The Broncos have Patrick Surtain II to lock down half the field, but the rest of Denver’s secondary looks to be in shambles.

RECAP: I noted earlier that the Bengals have a habit of beginning slowly in the Joe Burrow era. That is on a small sample size, however, and it’s nothing compared to the data we have with Sean Payton. Dating back to his Saints days, Payton is an atrocious 3-17 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 in the past decade. How is that even possible!? You’d think it may have changed last year with a new team, but he lost outright to the Raiders and Redskins at home last year.

I don’t see why things would suddenly change for Payton, so the Seahawks are the play. However, Seattle is not exactly an exciting play. The Seahawks are not a very good team, so I question them being favored by more than a field goal over anyone, even Denver. It’d be one thing if the Seahawks had a healthy Nwosu on their defense, but they’re missing such an important piece of their stop unit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Seahawks, driving this line from -4.5 to -6. I can see the case for Seattle. If the Seahawks aren’t a bottom-half team, then betting them at -6 is certainly warranted against this crappy Denver squad. However, I have questions about the Seahawks with their new coaching staff, as well as their defense that won’t have Nwosu.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps bet the Seahawks earlier in the week, but haven’t really touched them at -6. I still have no interest in this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Public on the Broncos, sharps on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (61,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Sean Payton is 3-17 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Seahawks are 30-19 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Geno Smith is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 76 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: It was shocking that the Cowboys opened as favorites in this matchup when the lines were first released. Somehow, people thought they were good enough to be expected to win in Cleveland despite losing two of their best offensive linemen this season, as Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are now with the Jets and Redskins, respectively.

It’d be one thing if the Cowboys weren’t matched up against a great defense, but they’ll be battling the Browns, who had the league’s No. 1 stop unit last year. Myles Garrett and the rest of the defensive line will be able to swarm Dak Prescott. We’ve seen Prescott struggle mightily in the past when there are issues with his offensive line, so unless Smith and Biadasz’s replacements thrive right away, we could see that again.

The Cowboys also have no threat of a running game to ease pressure off Prescott. It’d be one thing if Tony Pollard were still on the roster, but he’s now in Tennessee. Neither Ezekiel Elliott nor Rico Dowdle is going to scare a Cleveland defense that was No. 2 versus ground attacks last year.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Cowboys have problems beyond their offensive line. Anyone who watched the Packers destroy them in the opening round of the playoffs understands this. While Dallas has no running game, it also can’t stop the rush either. The Cowboys looked utterly helpless when trying to tackle Aaron Jones.

Nick Chubb being healthy would be an enormous boon for the Browns in this matchup, but Jerome Ford has proven to be a quality replacement. Of course, it helps that the Browns have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Ford will have big running lanes against Dallas, making Deshaun Watson’s matchup easier.

Speaking of Watson, the massage enthusiast will have a chance to redeem himself from last year’s miserable season. He’ll have a better receiving corps and a healthier offensive line at his disposal, plus he won’t have to worry about last year’s breakout cornerback DaRon Bland, who is dealing with an injury right now.

RECAP: I wish I had bet the Browns when this spread was first released. The Cowboys were favored back in May, which seems so absurd. Not only are they the inferior team in this contest, but they also have one of the worst matchups of any team in Week 1, with their new offensive line battling Garrett and company.

The Browns are the play for at least a few units. They’re the better team, yet aren’t even favored by a field goal. I know that betting on Watson isn’t very appealing, but neither is doing so with Prescott when he’s being pressured heavily. Besides, if you go position by position, you’ll come to the conclusion that the Browns are better or equal to the Cowboys everywhere except quarterback and WR1.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t jumped on either side at this price after liking the Browns earlier in the offseason. Perhaps we won’t get to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jedrick Wills is out, while Jack Conklin is questionable after being limited all week. I’ll have no interest in betting the Browns if their two tackles are out versus Dallas’ elite edge rush.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Browns -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Browns -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Kevin Stefanski is 14-20 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions fought the Rams in the opening round of the playoffs last year in a tight battle. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs may notice that a certain big presence is missing in the rematch. That would obviously be Aaron Donald, who announced his retirement this offseason.

Donald’s absence is a huge blow to the Rams’ chances of pulling the upset. Goff is protected by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so someone like Donald is needed to disrupt Goff. With Donald gone, the Rams don’t have anyone like that despite spending two early draft choices on front-seven players.

While the Rams have grown weaker on the defensive line, they were at least able to make some nice additions to their secondary. Goff, however, will have too much time to be frazzled, and he’ll have plenty of success targeting Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Kyren Williams has his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Lions already had the league’s best run defense last year, and now they’ll be even more potent in that regard with D.J. Reader in the middle of the line of scrimmage.

The Lions were much weaker against the pass last year, which was how Matthew Stafford was able to nearly defeat his old team. What Detroit did last season was stack the line of scrimmage to be able to stuff the run, which created an issue versus aerial attacks. Reader being on the team allows the Lions not to play closely to the line of scrimmage. Combine that with the improved defensive backs acquired this offseason, and the Lions look to be much better against the pass.

Still, stopping Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be challenging for most teams when Stafford is well protected. The thing is, however, Stafford won’t have his entire offensive line in front of him, as left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended. Joe Noteboom is going to have a very difficult time against Aidan Hutchinson.

RECAP: The injury report will be worth monitoring leading up to this game. The Rams were very banged up during training camp, so we’ll have to see who’s missing on top of Alaric Jackson and Tyler Higbee.

I initially planned on siding with the Rams at +3.5 because getting the hook seemed appealing with a team seeking revenge in an even matchup. However, given the injury issues, I may end up with the Lions. I’m going to pencil in Detroit for now, but stay tuned for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ll have interest in betting the Lions at -3, but I’m fearful of a back-door cover at -3.5, given that Matthew Stafford has a tendency to go nuclear in second halves when he’s down. There’s sharp money coming in on Detroit.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Lions more now that the spread has moved to -4 as a result of the Rams missing Darious Williams. Part of the reason I was still bullish on the Rams following Aaron Donald’s retirement was because of the great moves the Rams made to strengthen their secondary. Williams was my favorite cornerback addition, but he’s now on injured reserve. I don’t need to tell you that this is a horrible thing against Detroit’s passing attack. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Lions.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: Lions -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Rams are a public underdog.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 56% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Sean McVay is 6-1 ATS in Week 1 games.

Opening Line: Lions by 3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the gays and the LBGSTQX+ people. Tonight, the New York Jets take on the San Francisco Giants. Guys, it’s a new year, and I must voice my frustration. I wanted to go to Brazil to do the Packers-Eagles game, but Mother wouldn’t sign my permission slip to go overseas. I told her I had plenty of experience with Brazilians because I sometimes play Street Fighter II, and when I do, I play as Blanka. But Mother still said it was too dangerous for her little Poopy-kins because a Brazilian girl might ask me out on a date. Guys, is this ridiculous, or what? All I wanted to do is broadcast a game for my Philadelphia Eagles and root for them to crush the other team!

Emmitt: Thanks, Robert. I was real frustration with Street Fighter 2. Longed ago when Street Fighter II a real popularity game, I try to buy him when I goed to the store. But they not sell Street Fighter 2. The store have alternative game call Street Fighter II, with the alphabet I instead of the number 2, so I get real madness and go home and protest the game. I still not gonna play Street Fighter II until the store comed out with Street Fighter 2!

Reilly: Emmitt, if you think that’s rough, Mother made me vacuum the house before I could buy that game. She also made me clean the windows. What am I, some kind of maid!? As a then-40-year-old, I wanted to play video games and then admire my Eagles bobblehead collection in peace!

Tollefson: Reilly, you are pathetic. You need to stand up to the toxic matriarchy by kidnapping and enslaving women. Then, they can vacuum your floor and clean your windows as you do fun stuff.

Reilly: Tolly, how many times do I have to tell you this? I would kidnap and enslave women if Mother would let me talk to girls. She said I could talk to singers last year because she made a bet that I could have a prettier girlfriend than Taylor Swift, but I just ended up taking Mother to prom. Mother let me hold her hand for a bit. Now, I’m back to not talking to women except for two exceptions Mother made because we’re going to have a guest woman on the show in addition to Charissa Thompson. Mother said I can talk to them if I wear a mask and gloves. Also, I was supposed to go on a date to see a picture show with Charissa Thompson, but Mother said we both needed masks and gloves, and Charissa declined, but I think Mother may have threatened her life.

Tollefson: Speaking of masks and gloves, I like to wear those when I kidnap women so I don’t leave any fingerprints or DNA.

Reilly: You’re really rubbing it in there, Tolly. When I get my revenge on everyone, you can bet that you’ll be on the list! But now it’s time to go down to Charissa Thompson for this pre-game report. Charissa, what do you have for us in your pre-game report?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Peter. Tonight, Jets quarterback Joe Namath is set to come back after spending decades retired from football. And for the 49ers, it’s the debut of Jerry Rice, who is also returning to the league after a long hiatus. Back to you.

Reilly: Charissa, I don’t think that’s correct, but to be honest, I haven’t looked at either team’s roster because I’m more concerned about not broadcasting games for my Philadelphia Eagles. Guys, I’m really mad about this, so I’m going to turn it to our new analyst, Kamala Harris, who is running to be our president. Kamala, now that I have my mask and gloves on, let me ask you, who do you think will win the Super Bowl this year? And keep in mind if you don’t say my Philadelphia Eagles, you’ll be put on my hit list.

Kamala Harris: That’s a great term. The Super Bowl. It’s super, because the game is super, because it’s the most important game, which makes it super. And bowl. You could say it’s played in a bowl because the stadium looks like a bowl, but football games are called bowls as well. This makes it a Super Bowl because it’s a super bowl, as in it’s a bowl that is super, which makes it a Super Bowl.

Reilly: That’s great information, but who do you think is going to win the Super Bowl?

Kamala Harris: Now, there’s a great concept. And it’s a concept that’s great, which makes it a great concept. Winning. When you win, you win, and if you don’t win, you don’t win. You lose. Which is not winning. And when you don’t win, you lose, and when you don’t lose, you win. So winning the Super Bowl is winning, and not losing, the bowl that is super, which is a Super Bowl, and winning it means you haven’t lost the Super Bowl. Because when you lose the Super Bowl, you don’t win.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Indian Kamala is just talking in circles, and believe me, no one knows more about circles than I do, Pi is 3.14, did you know that, because Kamala probably thinks Pi is something you eat, but Pi is an irrational number, and Kamara is really irrational, probably the most irrational person anyone has ever met, and I’ll tell you who’s going to win the Super Bowl, we’re going to win the Super Bowl, not just me, but the American people, because when Donald Trump wins, frankly, the American people win, but the news media won’t tell you that, it’s all fake news, all of it, the fake news believes that Kamala – how do you say that name, anyway, because she always changes how she says it – Kamala is black, according to the fake news media, but her photographs say she’s Indian, unlike Elizabeth Warren, who I call Pocahontas, she’s not Indian, but Kamala is the real Indian, frankly, and she’s bad for America, real bad, but we’re great for America, the best for America.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE COME FROM THE FUTURE, AND I HAVE LEARNED THAT PI WILL WIN THE SUPER BOWL THIS SEASON.

Reilly: Shut up, Wolfley, or you’ll be next! You know what? You will be next! New Daddy, I named you Czar of the Revenge White Board. Fetch it for me, now!

Jay Cutler: Oh, when you said “white board,” I thought you meant that I’d be bored listening to you, which is true.

Reilly: New Daddy, how can you possibly say that!? No one can possibly be bored talking to me!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you are talking about things that are boring, Kevin. Let’s begin with Kevin, Kevin. Kevin, Kevin, is very boring, Kevin. Let’s talk about other things that are boring, Kevin. There’s a lecture in school, Kevin, which is less boring than Kevin, Kevin. Also, soccer, Kevin, which is also more boring than Kevin, Kevin. Don’t forget about watching paint dry, Kevin, which is more fun than Kevin, Kevin. And also-.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE NEXT ON MY LIST AS SOON AS MY WHITE BOARD CZAR GETS HIS ACT TOGETHER! We’ll be back after this!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: There’s one major unknown factor heading into Tuesday, and that was Trent Williams’ availability. The All-Pro left tackle was holding out, and it was looking less and less likely that he’d be available Monday night.

Williams, however, agreed to an extension, so he will play in this game. That has to be a huge relief for the 49ers because his absence presented a big problem against the Jets’ excellent defensive front. New York is stellar at rushing the passer, so a blocking unit without Williams would struggle to keep Brock Purdy protected. Furthermore, New York’s excellent cornerbacks will be able to lock down Purdy’s receivers. With Williams on the field, Purdy will be able to have enough time to connect with his targets.

The Jets are much weaker to the run than the pass, which ordinarily wouldn’t bode well against Christian McCaffrey. Williams’ presence will play a huge factor here as well. It’s hard to imagine McCaffrey having lots of success without Williams, especially considering that McCaffrey may not be 100 percent coming off a balky calf. Williams being on the field will allow McCaffrey to burst through wide-open running lanes.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets’ offensive line was a massive problem last year, but the front office took measures to make sure that Aaron Rodgers would last more than four plays this time. New York has its own talented left tackle now in Tyron Smith, who will be essential in keeping Nick Bosa at bay.

Rodgers should have ample time in the backfield, so he’ll be able to connect with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on occasion. The 49ers aren’t overly strong at cornerback, so Wilson should have a decent performance.

The Jets figure to move the chains well with Breece Hall, too. Hall is now two years removed from a torn ACL, so he’ll be at 100-percent capacity. He’s able to go the distance any time he touches the ball, and the 49ers are missing some front-seven talent from a year ago.

RECAP: This isn’t the best spot for the Jets. Any East Coast team playing a night game on the West Coast is going to be in trouble because of Circadian rhythms. Also, the Jets’ defensive weakness is against the run, and that’s what the 49ers do best.

The 49ers do this best when Williams is in the lineup. If Williams couldn’t play, the 49ers would have major problems blocking the Jets’ ferocious front, as their offensive line will be graded as one of the NFL’s worst.

My pick was going to be dictated by Williams’ availability. I would have sided with the Jets had Williams been sidelined, but given that he’ll be available, I’m going to pick San Francisco.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some -4.5s are beginning to appear, which makes sense, given the Trent Williams news.

SATURDAY NOTES: It doesn’t appear as though we’re waiting on any injury news. I may bet a small amount on the 49ers.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.

Computer Model: 49ers -7.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Aaron Rodgers is 128-88 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-19 ATS as an underdog.

49ers are 42-32 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Brock Purdy is 20-4 SU, 14-10 ATS.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 77 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.