Price Headley, CEO of BigTrends.com: The second leg of the Triple Crown happens this Saturday at Pimlico racecourse outside Baltimore, and my comments about California Chrome (Post Position 3, morning line odds 3-5) as a legitimate contender for the first Triple Crown in 36 years still stand. The horse was hand-ridden to victory in the Derby and should be fresh for this race. His draw in the No. 3 post position was also favorable.
The race is 1-3/16 miles (1/16 short than the Derby) and the weather should be good Saturday for a fast track. The only pending question here in my view is who gets second and third. With the morning line odds at 3-5, it’s not worth betting Chrome to win; we need to pair him with other horses to get a decent payoff.
Here’s my assessment:
I think there will be plenty of speed in this race with Social Inclusion and a couple of others battling on the front end. I expect this sets up for closers to finish well to get second and maybe Social Inclusion can hang on for third.
I like the local horse Kid Cruz (PP 7, 20-1) as he won on this track in the Tesio stakes last month with a strong closing kick, and I figure he can pick up the pieces for second place.
I think Ride on Curlin (PP 10, 10-1) will also have a good closing kick, and Dynamic Impact (PP 1, 12-1) and Bayern (PP 5, 10-1) are wildcards that have an outsiders shot at third or fourth. So, here’s my play on a model portfolio:
$10 Exacta 3 on top of 7,10
$2 Trifecta 3 on top of 7,10 on top of 7,10, 1, 5
Good Luck!
Moby Waller, Portfolio Manager at BigTrends.com: This year’s Preakness is a terrible betting race due to California Chrome being such a huge (and deserved) favorite. Price and myself both correctly picked Chrome to win the Kentucky Derby, but neither of us had the second place longshot horse, which messed up our Exacta & Trifecta wagers.
The Preakness is normally a race where closers do not win, and it often seems to run as a shorter race than its 1 3/16-mile length would indicate. However, there isn’t nearly as much impressive speed in this race as there was in the Debry, so I think some late runners could finish in the money.
There is a story out there about huge favorite Chrome having a cough, so take that for what it’s worth ….
I put California Chrome (PP 3, 3-5) on top. In order to make the betting on this race somewhat potentially lucrative, I threw out the second betting choice of Social Inclusion, as the morning line odds of 5-1 were too low for this horse relative to the other contenders.
Next, I chose Kid Cruz (PP 7, 20-1), who can close, won last time out at the this Pimico race course, and has nice odds.
Then, Ride On Curlin (PP 10, 10-1) who also can close, has had consistent speed numbers, and ran a decent Derby despite a criticized Borel ride (new jockey this race). Next, I looked at a lot of these horses, but settled on Dynamic Impact (PP 1, 12-1). That horse has won its last two races with decent speed times.
Theoretical Wagers:
$5 Exacta 3 with 7/10/1
$2 Exacta Box 3 7 10 1
$2 Trifecta Box 3 7 10 1
$5 Win Place Show on 7,10
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