(I think my math is right.)
A lot has changed in the last five weeks - I don't even remember putting Carson Wentz on my board and now he's heavily projected to go 2nd overall - so this should be an interesting change of pace from my last draft. Updates will be weekly or bi-weekly from here on out.
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Rookie Rankings
In one of many 2010 Fantasy Football articles to come, here are my 2010 Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Rankings. There will be many more 2010 Fantasy Football features in the late spring and summer, including tons of 2010 Fantasy Football Mock Drafts, Player Rankings, Sleepers and Busts. I'll also have an extensive 2010 NFL Fantasy Football Preseason Stock Report.
2010 Fantasy Football Rankings - Dynasty Rookie Rankings:
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers
As long as Philip Rivers is quarterbacking this offense, Ryan Mathews will be in position to rush for 1,000-plus yards and score double-digit touchdowns every year. Mathews and Ben Tate are close in 2010, but Mathews has much more long-term upside because he'll compile a ton of total yardage once he gets more comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield and Darren Sproles signs elsewhere.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
C.J. Spiller is the most talented running back in this class. If the Bills ever get their quarterback situation figured out, he'll become a fantasy monster. I think the Jamaal Charles comparisons are very apt, and numerous 2,000-total yard campaigns are not out of the question. So, why Ryan Mathews over Spiller? Just because the Bills are a complete mess and look like they have no clue or direction.
Ben Tate, RB, Texans
Michael Lombardi predicts that Ben Tate will win Offensive Rookie of the Year and rush for 1,500 yards in 2010. I think that could happen; with Steve Slaton coming off injury, Tate doesn't have to share carries with anyone. The Auburn product is a perfect fit in Houston's offense. Remember all of those instances when the Texans failed to get into the end zone from the 1-yard line? At 220 pounds, Tate will score in those scenarios.
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
Dez Bryant has drawn comparisons to Andre Johnson. He's the No. 1 dynasty receiver this year because of Tony Romo and the Dallas offense. If Miles Austin can be a fantasy stud, imagine what the alleged next Andre Johnson can do with the Cowboys.
Jahvid Best, RB, Lions
I like Jahvid Best in 2010, but not very much beyond this upcoming season. He's so small and fragile, and his injury history is very extensive. I'll be pretty surprised if he lasts a long time in this league.
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
Demaryius Thomas can't run routes or catch the ball consistently, but does that really matter in Josh McDaniels' offense? McDaniels will utilize Thomas like he used Brandon Marshall in Weeks 1-16 and Jabar Gaffney in the final game of the season - and Gaffney caught 14 balls for 213 yards in the finale.
Arrelious Benn, WR, Buccaneers
Arrelious Benn struggles with drops, but he's a very talented receiver. He's already penciled into Tampa Bay's starting lineup, and should be good for about 700-800 yards and a couple of touchdowns in 2010. It'll be fun to watch Benn and Josh Freeman progress together. If Freeman can evolve into a solid starting quarterback, Benn should be able to eclipse 1,000 yards year in and year out.
Jimmy Clausen, QB, Panthers
Jimmy Clausen in all likelihood will be a great franchise quarterback for the Panthers. He has the experience in the West Coast offense, and if that's not enough, he has Steve Smith at his disposal. The Panthers have a run-heavy offense, but Clausen should be able to post solid QB1 numbers in 2011 and beyond.
Golden Tate, WR, Seahawks
If the Seahawks ever get a quarterback (or if Charlie Whitehurst is the answer), I love Golden Tate as a long-time producer in fantasy leagues. He's great after the catch and is very familiar with the West Coast offense.
Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers
Brandon LaFell may not play right away because of John Fox's tendency to sit rookies, but I believe he'll capitalize on his chance once he's finally called into the lineup. LaFell is a very gifted, pro-ready receiver who will likely form a great rapport with Jimmy Clausen.
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams
Sam Bradford is not pro-ready and I don't like him this year, but there's no questioning his talent. There's a good chance the Rams will draft someone like A.J. Green next April (just check out my 2011 NFL Mock Draft), and if that happens, Bradford will become a very good fantasy quarterback.
Andre Roberts, WR, Cardinals
I love Andre Roberts as a long-term fantasy and real-life sleeper. He barely dropped any balls in college and he's a prolific route-runner. If the Cardinals traded for Donovan McNabb or drafted Jimmy Clausen, Roberts would be a big-time fantasy sleeper for me this year. Unfortunately, Matt Leinart's the quarterback, so if you draft Roberts, you'll have to hope that Arizona dumps the Nick Lachey Hot Tub Offense and finds a better signal-caller.
James Starks, RB, Packers
I really like James Starks as a prospect. He's great at catching the ball out of the backfield and should take over for Brandon Jackson as Green Bay's third-down back immediately. In two years, Starks could be the starter; Ryan Grant's contract expires after the 2011 season, and he'll be 29 when that happens.
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Steelers
Jonathan Dwyer is a very physically gifted running back. He won't get many opportunities right away in Pittsburgh, but it wouldn't surprise me if he and Rashard Mendenhall eventually had some sort of timeshare.
Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns
It looks like Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison will split carries. Hardesty will get the goal-line touches. If Cleveland ever finds a quarterback, Hardesty could become a solid fantasy back.
Taylor Price, WR, Patriots
Taylor Price is a really raw wideout, but if he ever develops, he'll be a monstrous fantasy receiver as long as Tom Brady is under center.
Dexter McCluster, WR, Chiefs
Rank him a bit higher if you're in a PPR league. Dexter McCluster should get plenty of catches.
Damian Williams, WR, Titans
A good receiver, but trapped in a very run-heavy offense. Not much upside here for now.
Mardy Gilyard, WR, Rams
It'll be fun to watch Sam Bradford and Mardy Gilyard evolve together. Gilyard projects as a very good deep threat.
Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers
This is all upside. Mike Williams has first-round talent, but slipped into Day 3 because he quit on Syracuse and then laughed it off at the Combine. But if he can put everything together, he could thrive in the NFL.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Steelers
A personal favorite of Mike Mayock's, Emmanuel Sanders should be able to start out wide or in the slot for the Steelers, depending on where they want to use Mike Wallace.
Jordan Shipley, WR, Bengals
Jordan Shipley should be a solid PPR receiver playing in the slot for Cincinnati.
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Bengals
A very talented tight end who will be a huge end-zone target for Carson Palmer.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
Rob Gronkowski's back is an issue, but he'll be one of Tom Brady's favorite red-zone weapons.
Joe McKnight, RB, Jets
Will be New York's third-down back. Has more PPR value.
Toby Gerhart, RB, Vikings
A good seasonal handcuff for Adrian Peterson, but no long-term value unless Peterson suffers a really nasty ACL/MCL tear or something (let's hope not).
Eric Decker, WR, Broncos
Eric Decker is so good that Peyton Manning watched tons of film on him and begged Bill Polian to draft him in the third round. Polian never had the chance to do so because Josh McDaniels took him about 10 picks earlier.
Dennis Pitta, TE, Ravens
Dennis Pitta is a better receiving tight end than Ed Dickson. One of those two will emerge as a reliable weapon for Joe Flacco.
Ed Dickson, TE, Ravens
Ed Dickson is a better overall tight end than Dennis Pitta; he's a much better blocker but an inferior receiver. One of those two will emerge as a reliable weapon for Joe Flacco.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints
Could be the Saints' starting tight end two years down the road. Has great athleticism.
Dorin Dickerson, WR, Texans
A tight end at Pittsburgh, Dorin Dickson will be moved to wideout in Houston to compete with Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter as Matt Schaub's No. 2 guy. Dickerson is undoubtedly physically gifted, but the positional change will be taxing.
John Skelton, QB, Cardinals
Matt Leinart doesn't have great arm strength, doesn't study film as much as he should and checks down far too often. Derek Anderson has woeful accuracy. John Skelton, at least physically, is a prototypical NFL quarterback. He's raw and has some time to grow, but if he progresses and is eventually given the chance, he'll have the supporting cast to post great numbers in the NFL.
Tim Tebow, QB, Broncos
I'm not going to doubt Tim Tebow. I actually think Josh McDaniels' offense is perfect for him. If anything, Tebow will have a bunch of quarterback sneaks for touchdowns every year.
Colt McCoy, QB, Browns
Colt McCoy is a shorter version of Kyle Orton, but he's a good fit for Mike Holmgren's West Coast offense.
Tony Moeaki, TE, Chiefs
I like Tony Moeaki, but Todd Haley doesn't really incorporate tight ends into his offense. Moeaki's injury history is really extensive.