This is a list of some Buy Low players this fantasy season - guys who are being drafted way too late simply based on what happened last year. Most of these players will provide great value for you in your fantasy drafts this summer.
Also, be sure to check out my other 2010 Fantasy Football articles, which will include rankings, sleepers, busts, cheat sheets, mock drafts and other things.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs. Bye: 4.
Dwayne Bowe had a miserable 2009 campaign. Now, he's working hard, he's avoided Todd Haley's dog house, and he'll benefit from Charlie Weis getting the most out of Matt Cassel. Bowe's ADP last year was around 37. Now it's above 50. He's a great buy-low, bounce-back candidate in a thin receiver year.
Donald Brown, RB, Colts. Bye: 7.
Last summer, Donald Brown outplayed Joseph Addai in the preseason. It was a legitimate argument as to who was going to receive more carries that season. Well, Addai got all of the action because Brown suffered an injury early in the year. Brown is now healthy and impressing in training camp. He could easily become Indianapolis' primary ball-carrier this year, yet he's being drafted about five rounds after Addai.
Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins. Bye: 5.
Ronnie Brown's ADP last year was 33.0. Now, it's 49.9. What has changed since then? Not much - only the entire public has realized that Brown is injury-prone. The funny thing is that Brown is a steal as an ADP 49.9; the mere fact that a 33-year-old Ricky Williams is sometimes being drafted ahead of him is embarrassing.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills. Bye: 6.
Lee Evans had 1,290, 849 and 1,017 yards in the three seasons leading up to 2009. Last year, he had just 44 catches for 612 yards. Terrell Owens garnered most of Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick's targets, which should go back to Evans with Owens gone.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens. Bye: 8.
Joe Flacco is being drafted as the No. 11 quarterback this year. That's fine - I'll take him in Rounds 7-8 and reap the benefits. Flacco threw for 1,674 yards and 11 touchdowns in the first six games of the 2009 season. He declined after that, but only because he was hurt. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said the following of Flacco's injuries: "If you actually saw those injuries and saw the amount of rehab and everything it took for him to get ready to play on Sunday, people would be amazed at his performance."
Sounds like a bounce-back buy-low candidate to me - especially with Anquan Boldin, Donte' Stallworth, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta on the roster.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants. Bye: 8.
Brandon Jacobs had 1,089 rushing yards and 15 touchdown in 2008. Last summer, he was drafted as a RB1 in non-PPR leagues, but disappointed with only 835 yards, five scores and a 3.7 YPC. The reason for the sudden decline was a knee injury Jacobs played through the entire year. The injury-prone Jacobs could just as easily get hurt again, but he's healthy for now.
Greg Jennings, WR, Packers. Bye: 10.
Anyone who drafted Greg Jennings last year knows how inconsistent he was. He scored only four touchdowns, which also hurt. However, Jennings managed 17 catches, 359 yards and two scores in his final three full games of the 2009 campaign. With Donald Driver playing on two bad knees, Jennings is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Green Bay's high-octane offense.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions. Bye: 7.
I can't believe Calvin Johnson is ranked as the No. 7 receiver in some publications. Last year, Johnson was mired by a rookie quarterback and nagging injuries. Now, Matthew Stafford has more experience and Megatron is fully healthy. Detroit's offense has more weapons, which means more red-zone opportunities and fewer double teams. Johnson is the most physically talented wideout in the league. There's no reason an aging and decrepit Reggie Wayne should be going before him.
Lance Moore, WR, Saints. Bye: 10.
Lance Moore was a popular mid-round pick last year, as he notched 79 receptions in 2008. Now, Moore is a forgotten player in New Orleans' offense. With Robert Meachem banged up and Devery Henderson suffering through a sports hernia, a now-healthy Moore could play a big role for the Saints this season.
Santana Moss, WR, Redskins. Bye: 9.
Want to hear something funny? Last year, Santana Moss' ADP was 74.2. This season, with Donovan McNabb as his quarterback, Moss' ADP has jumped all the way up to 74.1. Umm... what? Moss is a really talented receiver - only the casual fantasy football player doesn't realize that because the best quarterback Moss has ever been paired with is Chad Pennington. McNabb should be able to bring the most out of Moss. I love him as a WR3.
Laurent Robinson, WR, Rams. Bye: 9.
Laurent Robinson is a talented receiver, but can never stay healthy. However, everyone knows just how injury-prone he is, which is causing him to go undrafted in most leagues. Granted, Robinson is a long shot to play at least eight contests this season, but if he's in the lineup, he's a passable WR3. I like Robinson as a late-round sleeper.
Eddie Royal, WR, Broncos. Bye: 9.
Perhaps the greatest fantasy disappointment last year aside from Matt Forte and Steve Slaton, Eddie Royal caught 91 passes for 980 yards in 2008, and consequently was selected in the fifth or sixth rounds of most PPR fantasy drafts last summer. Royal finished with just 37 receptions, as he rotted away as a deep-ball decoy despite the fact that every defense knew that Kyle Orton couldn't get Royal the ball downfield.
Royal is now practicing in the slot, which is great news for his PPR prospects. Unfortunately, Josh McDaniels is still his coach, so anything could happen.
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers. Bye: 6.
Why in the world is Steve Smith falling into the fourth round of fantasy drafts? Smith had 1,421 yards and six touchdowns in 2008. The reason for his decline in 2009 (982 yards) was because of Jake Delhomme. Some might not have any faith in Matt Moore, but in four full games with Moore last year, Smith caught 19 balls for 378 yards and three touchdowns. Extend those figures over 16 games, and you get 76 receptions, 1,512 yards and 12 scores. I'll gladly take that from a fourth-round receiver.
Cadillac Williams, RB, Buccaneers. Bye: 4.
Cadillac Williams' ADP is embarrassingly hovering around 140. He had just 816 rushing yards last year on a meager 3.9 YPC, but that was a result of defenses focusing on the run with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Josh Freeman is now a year older and has two promising receivers at his disposal, which should grant Cadillac more running room and touchdown opportunities.
Davis is doing a very good job, for a young first year guy. The likelihood the Steelers use their 1st on Safety, with David & Mitchell locked-in as #1 & 2, is virtually zero. And, the Steelers took Leveon Bell in the 2nd Round & they aren't lookin' for a replacement anytime soon. It seems your predictions are driven more by desire to see certain guys fall to certain teams, rather than desire to actually get the predictions right. Realistically, apart from early picks at OLB or ILB, everything else would be a Depth-at-Position pick.