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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 6 matchup
Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Line: Bills -6 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Bills | Raiders | |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | Power rank ◀ | #19 |
| 3-1 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 3-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread ▶ | 4-1 |
| 1-0on the road | ATS on the road / at home even | 2-0at home |
| 3-1as favorite | ATS as favorite / underdog even | 3-1as underdog |
| +0.1pts per game | Avg. cover margin ▶ | +3.4pts per game |
| +20 | Point differential ◀ | +3 |
| 14.2avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ◀ | 17.6avg. opp. rank |
| #18 | Net EPA rank ▶ | #15 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Weeks 2-5, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Bills offense | Raiders defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #3 | EPA per play ◀ | #18 |
| #7 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #24 |
| #1 | Rush EPA ◀ | #13 |
| #4 | Success rate ◀ | #26 |
| Bills defense | Raiders offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #29 | EPA per play ▶ | #12 |
| #28 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #6 |
| #22 | Rush EPA ◀ | #32 |
| #29 | Success rate ▶ | #14 |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Buffalo BillsBills 36, TEXANS 31 (HOU +0.5). This was a back-and-forth thriller with big plays by both teams on both sides of the ball. The Texans forgot to run the ball in the second half and Kamari Lassiter dropped a game-sealing interception. The Texans had a chance to win at the end, but the Bills sacked C.J. Stroud twice in the red zone. 409-381 BUF, 7.9-5.2 BUF
BILLS 41, Lions 31 (BUF -5.5). The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, while the offensive line couldn't block because three linemen were sidelined. The Lions were down 27-7 and got most of their yardage in garbage time. 446-355 BUF, 6.5-5.7 BUF
BILLS 24, Chargers 16 (BUF -7). The Bills made plenty of mistakes in the first half with a James Cook fumble and two Justin Herbert interceptions, but the Chargers couldn't capitalize on them and then made mistakes in the second half. 350-348 BUF, 5.6-5.4 BUF
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
Las Vegas RaidersRAIDERS 27, Dolphins 13 (LV -3.5). The Raiders ran all over the Dolphins. They made some mistakes, but the Dolphins couldn't take advantage because they made numerous mistakes of their own. 290-259 LV, 4.1-3.5 MIA
Raiders 26, CHARGERS 14 (LAC -6.5). These teams both made huge mistakes in this game, but the Chargers committed more errors, including a late Omarion Hampton fumble when they were driving down three. Justin Herbert and Joe Alt were awful. 310-305 LAC, 5.0-5.0 tie
Raiders 35, SAINTS 27 (NO -3). Brock Bowers made some huge plays early in this game, but the Saints got out to a big lead. The Raiders stormed back with two strip-sacks of Tyler Shough and then a Juwan Johnson fumble. 381-340 NO, 5.4-5.3 LV
Chiefs 30, RAIDERS 27 (LV +4.5). This was a back-and-forth game where the Raiders took the lead with five minutes to go. The Raiders fumbled a punt return following a late Chiefs touchdown, which basically ended the game. 437-399 LV, 6.9-5.6 KC
PATRIOTS 45, Raiders 17 (NE -3.5). The only mistake the Patriots made in this game was a Corey Kiner fumble. Otherwise, Drake Maye lit up the Raiders, and Kirk Cousins couldn't keep up at all with no help from the running game. 536-306 NE, 8.1-5.4 NE
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 6 matchups · Buffalo Bills team page · Las Vegas Raiders team page
