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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 10 matchup
Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · neutral site · Line: Lions -2.5 (Circa)
New England Patriots#14 Group BNeutral site · Team page ›
Detroit Lions#9 Group BNeutral site · Team page ›
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Patriots | Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| #14 | Power rank ▶ | #9 |
| 5-4 | Record (straight up) ▶ | 6-2 |
| 3-4-2 | Against the spread ▶ | 4-3-1 |
| 0-0neutral site | ATS at a neutral site n/a | 0-0neutral site |
| 1-2-1as underdog | ATS as favorite / underdog ▶ | 4-2-1as favorite |
| -0.7pts per game | Avg. cover margin ▶ | +0.3pts per game |
| +4 | Point differential ▶ | +33 |
| 14.1avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ◀ | 18.9avg. opp. rank |
| #5 | Net EPA rank ◀ | #6 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Week 2 onward, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Patriots offense | Lions defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | EPA per play ◀ | #11 |
| #3 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #20 |
| #14 | Rush EPA ▶ | #2 |
| #5 | Success rate ◀ | #9 |
| #2633.0% of dropbacks | Pressure rate allowed vs. pressure rate ▶ | #1430.2% of dropbacks |
| Patriots defense | Lions offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #15 | EPA per play ▶ | #8 |
| #30 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #7 |
| #7 | Rush EPA ◀ | #10 |
| #22 | Success rate ▶ | #8 |
| #1031.1% of dropbacks | Pressure rate vs. pressure rate allowed ▶ | #425.1% of dropbacks |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
New England PatriotsSEAHAWKS 13, Patriots 10 (SEA -3). Sam Darnold got hurt on the opening drive, and the Seahawks couldn't do anything offensively until the second half when the Patriots fell asleep at a late hour. A.J. Brown got hurt, while Drake Maye and Romeo Doubs made numerous mistakes.
PATRIOTS 20, Steelers 3 (NE -5.5). The Patriots began this game with a turnover in the red zone, but they smothered Aaron Rodgers and forced him into two turnovers, including a strip-six. 327-235 NE, 6.2-3.5 NE
JAGUARS 35, Patriots 6 (JAX -3). The Jaguars dominated from start to finish, as the Patriots repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. New England got its yardage in garbage time. 317-315 NE, 5.3-5.3 tie
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
PATRIOTS 45, Raiders 17 (NE -3.5). The only mistake the Patriots made in this game was a Corey Kiner fumble. Otherwise, Drake Maye lit up the Raiders, and Kirk Cousins couldn't keep up at all with no help from the running game. 536-306 NE, 8.1-5.4 NE
PATRIOTS 26, Jets 19 (NE -7). The Jets had a sloppy start in this game and fell behind double digits. They played better in the second half, but couldn't complete the comeback because they couldn't get off the field as the Patriots ran the ball down their throat with Corey Kiner. 426-412 NYJ, 7.2-6.1 NYJ
BEARS 30, Patriots 24 (CHI -3). The Patriots scored a bogus touchdown at the end of the first but otherwise didn't do too much offensively outside of one drive per half. The Bears smothered Drake Maye who was missing three guards, while Caleb Williams threw for 300+ yards. 405-380 CHI, 7.6-6.1 NE
Patriots 24, DOLPHINS 19 (MIA +7). The Dolphins were up 13-3 at halftime, but Drake Maye had a great second half. He hit some big plays, while the Dolphins didn't have an answer, playing very slowly despite trailing 24-13 late. 313-269 NE, 5.3-4.5 NE
Packers 45, PATRIOTS 27 (NE -3). The Packers threw all over the Patriots with Matthew Golden having an amazing first half. The Patriots spent their time turning the ball over all afternoon, and one late touchdown came in garbage time. 478-387 GB, 7.5-6.3 GB
Detroit LionsLIONS 31, Saints 30 (DET -7). The Lions scored early and the Saints got off to a slow start, but the switch flipped on for Tyler Shough in the second half. The Lions were sluggish for a while, allowing the Saints to come back. Detroit went down the field in overtime, and the Saints did the same, but missed on the two-point conversion. 469-369 NO, 5.5-5.1 NO
BILLS 41, Lions 31 (BUF -5.5). The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, while the offensive line couldn't block because three linemen were sidelined. The Lions were down 27-7 and got most of their yardage in garbage time. 446-355 BUF, 6.5-5.7 BUF
LIONS 31, Jets 24 (DET -6.5). This game was close for a while, but the Jets couldn't convert some red zone tries. The Lions went up 24-10, but the Jets stormed back with some great plays by Garrett Wilson and a Jahmyr Gibbs stuff. The Lions scored quickly after that with Isaac TeSlaa and Gibbs hitting big plays, and then Wilson got hurt on the ensuing drive before Geno Smith fumbled to end the game. 381-335 DET, 6.0-5.5 NYJ
PANTHERS 32, Lions 26 (CAR +3.5). Bryce Young was on fire, and Tetairoa McMillan couldn't be stopped. The Panthers were up two touchdowns to begin the fourth quarter before a garbage-time Detroit score. 452-445 DET, 6.6-6.2 DET
Lions 45, CARDINALS 21 (ARZ +5.5). The Cardinals went up early with a touchdown drive and the Lions had two scoreless possessions. After that, Detroit couldn't stop scoring. The Cardinals couldn't keep up and got two touchdowns in garbage time. 412-327 DET, 6.3-4.6 DET
LIONS 20, Packers 17 (DET -3). Both teams moved the ball well in between the 20s, but constantly squandered opportunities in the red zone with fourth-down failures and turnovers. The Packers missed two field goals, and Detroit won with a short kick at the end. 415-324 DET, 6.3-5.0 DET
LIONS 19, Vikings 15 (DET -3.5). The Lions moved the ball well in between the 20s but bogged down in Vikings territory. They finally got over the hump twice in the second half, while their defense clamped down on the Vikings except for one late drive. 384-266 DET, 5.6-5.3 DET
Lions 19, DOLPHINS 9 (DET -7). The Lions struggled with Miami's pressure early, but the Dolphins botched two possessions sandwiching halftime. Amon-Ra St. Brown eventualy made a big play to set up a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown. 270-228 DET, 4.7-4.6 DET
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 10 matchups · New England Patriots team page · Detroit Lions team page
