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NFL Matchup Hub 2026 › Week 10 matchup
Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15 · Line: Bills -7.5 (Circa)
Every number below comes from the two team pages. The highlighted side and the arrow mark the better number in each row; ties are marked even, n/a = nothing to compare yet. No predictions.
| Bills | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| #2 | Power rank ◀ | #25 |
| 7-1 | Record (straight up) ◀ | 2-7 |
| 6-2 | Against the spread ◀ | 3-5-1 |
| 3-1on the road | ATS on the road / at home ◀ | 2-2at home |
| 5-2as favorite | ATS as favorite / underdog ◀ | 2-3-1as underdog |
| +5.2pts per game | Avg. cover margin ◀ | -1.8pts per game |
| +69 | Point differential ◀ | -41 |
| 12.5avg. opp. rank | Strength of schedule so far ◀ | 18.1avg. opp. rank |
| #6 | Net EPA rank ◀ | #24 |
Strength of schedule: average power rank of opponents at kickoff, lower = tougher, so the tougher schedule is marked. EPA ranks: Week 2 onward, #1 is best on both sides of the ball.
| Bills offense | Jets defense | |
|---|---|---|
| #5 | EPA per play ◀ | #25 |
| #4 | Dropback EPA ◀ | #31 |
| #6 | Rush EPA ◀ | #17 |
| #4 | Success rate ◀ | #29 |
| #1828.4% of dropbacks | Pressure rate allowed vs. pressure rate ▶ | #1330.4% of dropbacks |
| Bills defense | Jets offense | |
|---|---|---|
| #14 | EPA per play ◀ | #19 |
| #28 | Dropback EPA ▶ | #20 |
| #13 | Rush EPA even | #13 |
| #26 | Success rate ▶ | #10 |
| #632.2% of dropbacks | Pressure rate vs. pressure rate allowed ◀ | #2229.6% of dropbacks |
Every game in order, Week 1 first. Opp. rank = where I had the opponent in my power rankings in effect at kickoff. Recaps are mine, word for word.
Opponent's group in my power rankings at kickoff: Group A Group B Group C Group D Group F
Buffalo BillsBills 36, TEXANS 31 (HOU +0.5). This was a back-and-forth thriller with big plays by both teams on both sides of the ball. The Texans forgot to run the ball in the second half and Kamari Lassiter dropped a game-sealing interception. The Texans had a chance to win at the end, but the Bills sacked C.J. Stroud twice in the red zone. 409-381 BUF, 7.9-5.2 BUF
BILLS 41, Lions 31 (BUF -5.5). The Lions repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with penalties, while the offensive line couldn't block because three linemen were sidelined. The Lions were down 27-7 and got most of their yardage in garbage time. 446-355 BUF, 6.5-5.7 BUF
BILLS 24, Chargers 16 (BUF -7). The Bills made plenty of mistakes in the first half with a James Cook fumble and two Justin Herbert interceptions, but the Chargers couldn't capitalize on them and then made mistakes in the second half. 350-348 BUF, 5.6-5.4 BUF
Patriots 29, BILLS 26 (BUF -6.5). Drake Maye lost a fumble but was otherwise back to 2025 form with his passing and rushing. This was a back-and-forth game with the Patriots scoring late to go up three and then Josh Allen, missing D.J. Moore who got hurt, throwing an interception. 405-340 NE, 6.3-5.5 BUF
Bills 37, RAMS 34 (LAR -3). The Bills led 13-7 at halftime, but this game turned into a shootout in the fourth quarter and overtime. James Cook lost a fumble in overtime, but the Rams couldn't capitalize because of a blocked field goal. The Bills then moved into field goal position because of two long Josh Allen runs, and they converted on the decisive kick. 454-436 LAR, 7.5-5.9 BUF
Bills 33, RAIDERS 30 (LV +4.5). This was a high-scoring game where both teams had leads. The Raiders were up 7-3 and 13-10, but the Bills dominated the third quarter with James Cook. The Raiders rallied back to tie the game at 23, but the Bills scored 10 points toward the end. Tre Tucker caught a deep touchdown to get the cover, but the onside kick wasn't converted. 378-345 LV, 6.2-5.4 LV
BILLS 36, Ravens 10 (BUF -3). Lamar Jackson got hurt on the opening play of the game. Tyler Huntley got hurt soon after. The Ravens had no chance with Joey Fagnano. Josh Allen didn't play his best, but he didn't need to. 426-144 BUF, 5.6-2.9 BUF
Bills 23, VIKINGS 6 (MIN +3.5). The Bills saw lots of pressure from the Vkings, but Josh Allen was able to overcome four sacks and make enough plays to win the game. The Vikings had just nine first downs, some of which came on the final drive in garbage time. 339-178 BUF, 4.3-3.9 BUF
New York JetsJets 23, TITANS 10 (TEN -1.5). The Jets moved the ball well on the Titans, who barely did anything offensively until garbage time. Their only touchdown came very late. 367-195 NYJ, 5.8-4.0 NYJ
Packers 20, JETS 17 (NYJ +3.5). The Jets were up 17-3 with their defense smothering Jordan Love, but Jordan Love led a comeback with some clutch plays by Jordan Love and increased pressure from Lukas Van Ness. The Jets helped with a personal foul penalty in overtime. 285-199 NYJ, 4.0-4.0 tie
LIONS 31, Jets 24 (DET -6.5). This game was close for a while, but the Jets couldn't convert some red zone tries. The Lions went up 24-10, but the Jets stormed back with some great plays by Garrett Wilson and a Jahmyr Gibbs stuff. The Lions scored quickly after that with Isaac TeSlaa and Gibbs hitting big plays, and then Wilson got hurt on the ensuing drive before Geno Smith fumbled to end the game. 381-335 DET, 6.0-5.5 NYJ
BEARS 23, Jets 12 (CHI -3). The Bears stalled at the goal line early with Tyson Bagent, but eventually got their act together and were able to win time of possession by 25 minutes. 492-157 CHI, 5.5-4.9 CHI
JETS 17, Browns 12 (NYJ -1.5). The Jets led by one or four for most of the game, but allowed a long touchdown to Denzel Boston. The Browns gave them a short field on a botched snap that turned into a touchdown, and then New York's pass rush hounded Deshaun Watson. 276-198 NYJ, 4.2-3.0 NYJ
PATRIOTS 26, Jets 19 (NE -7). The Jets had a sloppy start in this game and fell behind double digits. They played better in the second half, but couldn't complete the comeback because they couldn't get off the field as the Patriots ran the ball down their throat with Corey Kiner. 426-412 NYJ, 7.2-6.1 NYJ
Dolphins 28, JETS 25 (NYJ -4). The Dolphins scored at will in the first half. The Jets were able to move the ball well in between the 20s, but constantly made mistakes in the red zone to ruin a potential comeback from down 21-7. 377-360 NYJ, 7.1-5.6 NYJ
Raiders 38, JETS 33 (NYJ -1.5). The Jets had a nine-point lead at halftime despite the Raiders getting a kickoff return touchdown, but they refused to run the ball in the second half despite Braelon Allen looking great. Geno Smith was awful in the second half, and Kirk Cousins couldn't be stopped. 439-333 NYJ, 7.2-5.6 NYJ
CHIEFS 35, Jets 12 (KC -10). It looked like Patrick Mahomes would be out with an elbow injury when he held his arm in pain, but he ended up not missing any time and was hot in the second half after a very close 14-12 game in the first half. 391-229 KC, 6.0-3.7 KC
Key: F = Full in practice · L = Limited in practice · D = Did not practice · IR = Injured Reserve · PUP = Physically unable to perform · CE = Commissioner's Exempt List. Numbers are game weeks.
All Week 10 matchups · Buffalo Bills team page · New York Jets team page
