NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2026): 7-7-1 (+$3,195)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2026): 8-6 (-$1,430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2026): 7-7 (-$1,175)
2026 NFL Picks: 63-65-5 (-$2,780)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Nov. 8, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 9 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers were 0-6 and heading into their bye, so I wondered if they would put together a much better game plan with two weeks off. Instead, they had the fourth-worst offense in the NFL in Week 8. The only three teams worse than them were the Falcons in the torrential downpour, the Colts, who didn't try at all, and the Ravens, who were using an Italian dish at quarterback.

Granted, the Chargers were battling the Rams, who have a top-five defense. However, the matchup against the Texans may not be much easier. Houston's defense has been a disappointment this year, but the Texans have a ton of talent and may get their act together in the wake of their bye.

One thing the Texans can still do extremely well is pressure the quarterback, having the seventh-best pressure rate in the NFL. The Chargers can't block whatsoever, which will be problematic for Justin Herbert, who will continue to toss helpless checkdowns to his receivers.

The Chargers can't run the ball either, so Houston's defense should be able to feast on their one-dimensional offense.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Heading into this season, if you told people that the Texans would have way more offensive success than the Chargers this year, and Justin Herbert wouldn't have any injuries, they would have locked you up in a mental ward. Yet, that's exactly what has transpired in this crazy year, as Houston's offense has somehow ranked fourth in EPA, while the Chargers are dead last.

Houston can't run the ball, but the team has thrown extremely well when Nico Collins has been on the field. C.J. Stroud has a plethora of weapons at his disposal with Collins, Tank Dell, and now Marvin Harrison Jr.

Stroud will have his work cut out for him, however, given that the Chargers are ranked third against the pass. They generate a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback, though the Texans' offensive line is now better with Braden Smith on the field.

The Chargers are much weaker when it comes to stopping the run, but that's something the Texans cannot exploit. They have no running game to speak of because David Montgomery was a huge disappointment before getting injured. Woody Marks has been better, but he's not someone who can threaten the Chargers.

This is not an ideal matchup for the Texans, who could sputter like they did against the Giants.

RECAP: I was willing to give the Chargers a shot last week. I thought that given they were winless and had two weeks to prepare, they'd have a much better game plan against the Rams. Granted, they were up 9-3 a few minutes prior to the end of the opening half, but they didn't score a single point following intermission. It was the same dreadful offense that we saw the first six weeks of the season.

The Chargers have an easier matchup this week, unless the Texans solved their defensive woes during the off week. I trust Houston to have more success with the bye week than the Chargers had with theirs. So, I think we'll see continued issues for Los Angeles in this game.

The Chargers, however, have a strong defense that matches up well with Houston's offense. I like that the Texans have had two weeks to stew about their loss to the Giants, but they could have issues scoring on the Chargers.

That said, I still think the Texans are the far better team in this game and deserve to be favored by more than 4.5. I made this line Houston -6, so there's a bit of value on the Texans, but I don't envision betting them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There's nothing to report on this ugly, uninteresting game. I doubt I'll be betting either side, barring some craziness later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: There seems to be sharp action moving toward the Texans, which I can understand because the Chargers have been absolutely terrible. There's nothing on the injury report that says Houston should be faded. In fact, the Texans are probably the healthiest they've been all year, with the exceptions being Reed Blankenship and David Montgomery, the two starters who are sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Part of me wants to try betting a unit on the Texans, just as a fade of the Chargers, but even if I do end up betting Houston, it won't be for much, barring unexpected news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a bit of sharp action on the Texans earlier in the week, but nothing substantial. The best line is Houston -5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

The Texans are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.

Computer Model: Texans -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Decent action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 69% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.